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Taunton Town v Hanwell Town

Taunton Town

1–2Full time

Hanwell Town

Non League Premier - Southern South · SAT 10 OCT

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 17:33

Taunton Town 1–2 Hanwell Town TAUNTON TOWN WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Taunton Town win~~49%

~~The market said~~42%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.806

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.702

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay2 notes · 9 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Taunton Town win at 49%.
2′KICK-OFF Taunton Town v Hanwell Town
6′Little has changed for our model: Taunton Town 49% before kick-off, 48% now. 0–0 · 48–24–28
20′⚽ GOAL · 19' Taunton Town 0–1 Hanwell Town
26′19′ and it is 0–1: J. Esprit on the scoresheet for Hanwell Town. 0–1 · 20–24–56
26′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 26' Taunton Town win: 49% at kick-off, 20% now
26′THE CALL SWINGS · 26' Hanwell Town win is now our likeliest result at 56% (was Taunton Town win 20%)
45′HALF-TIME Taunton Town 0–1 Hanwell Town
46′SECOND HALF Taunton Town 0–1 Hanwell Town
50′⚽ GOAL · 50' Taunton Town 0–2 Hanwell Town
79′⚽ GOAL · 79' Taunton Town 1–2 Hanwell Town
FTFULL TIME Taunton Town 1–2 Hanwell Town
FTTaunton Town 1–2 Hanwell Town · Taunton Town win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Taunton Town win49%

Draw23%

Hanwell Town win28%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 15:00

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · taunton town winPublished 10 Oct 15:19

49% The market42%

Us49%

~~Market~~42%

We make Taunton Town a 49% chance to win. The market has them at 42%. We are 6 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.8–1.3.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · taunton town win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has not moved either.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Taunton Town win	49%	42%	+6
Draw	23%	25%	−2
Hanwell Town win	28%	32%	−4
Over 2.5 goals	60%	60%	−1
Both teams to score	61%	63%	−3
Over 1.5 goals	82%	81%	0
Over 3.5 goals	38%	40%	−2
Taunton Town or draw	72%	68%	+4
Taunton Town clean sheet	27%	–	–
Hanwell Town clean sheet	17%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 8 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.6%

0123450 4.9 5.7 3.9 1 7.9 10.6 6.8 3.0 2 7.2 9.2 6.0 2.7 3 4.3 5.5 3.6 4 2.5 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Taunton Town down, Hanwell Town across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 2,415 Non League Premier - Southern South matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Non League Premier - Southern South matches have gone over 2.5 in 57.6% of games this season, across 99 played.

Head to head

4 previous meetings, 4.00 goals a meeting; 3 of 4 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Taunton Town at home: 2.17 scored, 1.50 conceded a game (last 6). Hanwell Town away: 0.83 scored, 1.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.80 goals for Taunton Town, 1.32 for Hanwell Town. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2024

~~Goals a meeting~~4.00

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 4

~~Both scored~~2 of 4

~~Last meetings~~TAU 2–2 HAN · HAN 0–4 TAU · HAN 0–2 TAU · TAU 3–3 HAN

Form · last six in Non League Premier - Southern South

TAUNTON TOWN

LWWLLD4–5 · 4–3 · 4–1 · 1–3 · 1–3 · 2–2

HANWELL TOWN

DLLLDD0–0 · 0–1 · 0–2 · 0–1 · 2–2 · 1–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Poole Town	10	+5	21
2	Plymouth Parkway	9	+15	20
3	Uxbridge	9	+11	20
4	Hanworth Villa	9	+9	19
5	Bath City	9	+5	17
6	Frome Town	10	+4	15
7	Chertsey Town	9	+5	14
8	Taunton Town	9	+1	13
9	Chichester City	9	−2	13
10	Evesham United	9	−3	13
11	Berkhamsted	10	−3	13
12	Wimborne Town	8	+6	12
13	Gosport Borough	10	0	12
14	Yate Town	9	−5	12
15	Bracknell Town	9	−7	11
16	Sholing	8	−3	10
17	Basingstoke Town	9	−2	9
18	Hanwell Town	8	−3	7
19	Gloucester City	9	−5	7
20	Chippenham Town	8	−9	7
21	Havant & Wville	9	−7	5
22	Malvern Town	9	−12	5