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Taunton Town v Bracknell Town

Taunton Town

4–0Full time

Bracknell Town

Non League Premier - Southern South · TUE 20 OCT

Full timeGraded 20 Oct 22:30

Taunton Town 4–0 Bracknell Town TAUNTON TOWN WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTOVER 3.5 · RIGHT2–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Taunton Town win~~52%

~~The market said~~49%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.343

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.391

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay15 notes · 12 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Taunton Town win at 52%.
1′Much as we predicted: Taunton Town was 52% before kick-off and our model makes it 52% now. 0–0 · 52–21–27
1′KICK-OFF Taunton Town v Bracknell Town
45′HALF-TIME Taunton Town 0–0 Bracknell Town
46′SECOND HALF Taunton Town 0–0 Bracknell Town
47′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45+2' Taunton Town win: 52% at kick-off, 42% now
51′Taunton Town score on 51′ to make it 1–0. 1–0 · 75–18–7
51′⚽ GOAL · 51' Taunton Town 1–0 Bracknell Town
51′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 51' Taunton Town win: 52% at kick-off, 75% now
52′We published Taunton Town at 52%. Our model now makes it 76%. 1–0 · 76–18–7
53′50′: N. Grimes on the scoresheet for Taunton Town, making it 1–0. 1–0 · 76–18–6
58′Taunton Town find the net on 58′. 2–0. 2–0 · 94–5–1
58′We published Taunton Town at 52%. Our model now makes it 94%. 2–0 · 94–5–1
58′⚽ GOAL · 58' Taunton Town 2–0 Bracknell Town
58′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 58' Taunton Town win: 52% at kick-off, 94% now
59′We published Taunton Town at 52%. Our model now makes it 95%. 2–0 · 95–4–1
70′A goal for Taunton Town on 69′ — 3–0. 3–0 · 100–0–0
70′We published Taunton Town at 52%. Our model now makes it over 99%. 3–0 · 100–0–0
70′Goals are coming at about the 3.7 we expected. 3–0 · 100–0–0
70′⚽ GOAL · 69' Taunton Town 3–0 Bracknell Town
72′M. Davies scores for Taunton Town on 68′ — 3–0. 3–0 · 100–0–0
76′A red card for Bracknell Town on 76′. The model does not price cards, so read the number with that in mind. 3–0 · 100–0–0
76′🟥 RED CARD · 76' Bracknell Town
81′Taunton Town score on 81′ to make it 4–0. 4–0 · 100–0–0
81′4 goals already, more than the 3.7 we expected for the whole match. 4–0 · 100–0–0
81′⚽ GOAL · 81' Taunton Town 4–0 Bracknell Town
82′80′: A. Moulden on the scoresheet for Taunton Town, making it 4–0. 4–0 · 100–0–0
FTFULL TIME Taunton Town 4–0 Bracknell Town
FTTaunton Town 4–0 Bracknell Town · Taunton Town win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Over 3.5: right · 2–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Taunton Town are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Taunton Town 52%, draw 21%, Bracknell Town 27%. Over 2.5 goals 71%, both teams to score 69%.

The AI’s read on Taunton Town v Bracknell TownBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 14 Oct 04:28 · locked at kick-off

Taunton Town win52%

Draw21%

Bracknell Town win27%

Kick-offTUE 20 OCT · 19:45

RoundMatchday 14

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Taunton Town

Bracknell Town

3Days since last match3

Last match: 17 Oct · Non League Premier - Southern South

2Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
10	Taunton Town	11	+3	16
13	Bracknell Town	12	−10	14

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · taunton town winFirst published 14 Oct 04:28 · updated 18 Oct 00:17 · locked at kick-off

52% The market49%

Us52%

~~Market~~49%

We make Taunton Town a 52% chance to win. The market has them at 49%. We are 3 points more confident than the market. The model expects 2.2–1.5.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Taunton Town v Bracknell Town~~2.19 – 1.54

~~Form · last six in Non League Premier - Southern South this season · since 31 Aug~~W2 D1 L3 · W2 D1 L3

~~Table places · points 16 v 14~~10 v 13

~~The market · Taunton Town win~~49% · ours 52%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Taunton Town win The market, margin stripped

Published at 51%, 52% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 49% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Taunton Town win	52%	49%	+3
Draw	21%	25%	−4
Bracknell Town win	27%	26%	+1
Over 2.5 goals	71%	61%	+10
Both teams to score	69%	63%	+6
Over 1.5 goals	88%	81%	+7
Over 3.5 goals	51%	42%	+9
Taunton Town or draw	73%	74%	−1
Taunton Town clean sheet	22%	–	–
Bracknell Town clean sheet	12%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 8 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–1 at 8.6%

0123450 2.7 3.7 2.9 1 5.3 8.2 6.1 3.2 2 5.8 8.6 6.5 3.4 3 4.2 6.3 4.7 2.5 4 2.3 3.5 2.6 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Taunton Town down, Bracknell Town across0–5 goals a side shown (96.6% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 2,441 Non League Premier - Southern South matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Non League Premier - Southern South matches have gone over 2.5 in 59.2% of games this season, across 125 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 4 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 2.75 goals a meeting; 1 of 4 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Taunton Town at home: 2.17 scored, 1.83 conceded a game (last 6). Bracknell Town away: 0.50 scored, 2.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.19 goals for Taunton Town, 1.54 for Bracknell Town. Most likely score 2–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~2.75

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 4

~~Both scored~~2 of 4

~~Last meetings~~TAU 2–0 BRA · BRA 3–2 TAU · BRA 0–2 TAU · TAU 1–1 BRA

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Non League Premier - Southern South this season · since 31 Aug

TAUNTON TOWN

WLLDLW4–1 · 1–3 · 1–3 · 2–2 · 1–2 · 4–1

BRACKNELL TOWN

LWDLLW0–2 · 2–1 · 1–1 · 0–1 · 1–4 · 1–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Poole Town	12	+9	27
2	Plymouth Parkway	11	+14	23
3	Uxbridge	10	+12	23
4	Hanworth Villa	12	+10	23
5	Bath City	12	+8	23
6	Frome Town	13	+4	19
7	Chichester City	12	0	19
8	Gosport Borough	12	+5	18
9	Chertsey Town	11	+5	16
10	Taunton Town	11	+3	16
11	Berkhamsted	11	0	16
12	Wimborne Town	10	+8	15
13	Bracknell Town	12	−10	14
14	Evesham United	12	−9	13
15	Basingstoke Town	12	−6	12
16	Yate Town	11	−9	12
17	Sholing	10	−4	11
18	Hanwell Town	11	−4	11
19	Malvern Town	12	−12	11
20	Gloucester City	10	−3	10
21	Havant & Wville	12	−7	9
22	Chippenham Town	11	−14	8