Sholing v Malvern Town prediction · Non League Premier

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

SholingDrawMalvern Town

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 15:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Sholing 59%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Sholing are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Sholing 59%, draw 20%, Malvern Town 21%. Over 2.5 goals 68%, both teams to score 64%.

The AI’s read on Sholing v Malvern TownBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

Sholing win59%

Draw20%

Malvern Town win21%

Kick-offSAT 31 OCT · 15:00

RoundMatchday 16

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Sholing

Malvern Town

7Days since last match11

Last match: 24 Oct · the English FA Trophy

Last match: 20 Oct · Non League Premier - Southern South

3Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
17	Sholing	11	−4	12
19	Malvern Town	13	−15	11

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · sholing winFirst published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

59% The market–

Us59%

We make Sholing a 59% chance to win. The model expects 2.2–1.3, and 2–1 is the single most likely score at 9%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Sholing v Malvern Town~~2.24 – 1.27

~~Form · last six in Non League Premier - Southern South this season · since 31 Aug~~W2 D2 L2 · W3 D0 L3

~~Table places · points 12 v 11~~17 v 19

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Sholing win	59%	–	–
Draw	20%	–	–
Malvern Town win	21%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	68%	–	–
Both teams to score	64%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	86%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	47%	–	–
Sholing or draw	79%	–	–
Sholing clean sheet	29%	–	–
Malvern Town clean sheet	11%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–1 at 9.2%

0123450 3.3 3.8 2.5 1 6.7 8.6 5.3 2.3 2 7.5 9.2 5.8 2.5 3 5.6 6.9 4.4 4 3.2 3.9 2.5 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Sholing down, Malvern Town across0–5 goals a side shown (96.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 2,450 Non League Premier - Southern South matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Non League Premier - Southern South matches have gone over 2.5 in 58.2% of games this season, across 134 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2023/24.

Home and away form

Sholing at home: 1.50 scored, 2.00 conceded a game (last 6). Malvern Town away: 0.67 scored, 3.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.24 goals for Sholing, 1.27 for Malvern Town. Most likely score 2–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2023/24

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2023/24.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Non League Premier - Southern South this season · since 31 Aug

SHOLING

WLWDLD1–0 · 1–3 · 2–0 · 1–1 · 2–3 · 1–1

MALVERN TOWN

WLLWWL5–2 · 1–2 · 1–4 · 3–2 · 2–0 · 0–3

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Poole Town	12	+9	27
2	Uxbridge	11	+15	26
3	Bath City	13	+9	26
4	Hanworth Villa	13	+10	24
5	Plymouth Parkway	12	+12	23
6	Chichester City	13	+2	22
7	Taunton Town	12	+7	19
8	Chertsey Town	12	+7	19
9	Frome Town	13	+4	19
10	Wimborne Town	11	+11	18
11	Gosport Borough	13	+2	18
12	Berkhamsted	12	−2	16
13	Basingstoke Town	13	−4	15
14	Bracknell Town	13	−14	14
15	Yate Town	12	−9	13
16	Evesham United	13	−11	13
17	Sholing	11	−4	12
18	Hanwell Town	11	−4	11
19	Malvern Town	13	−15	11
20	Gloucester City	10	−3	10
21	Havant & Wville	13	−8	9
22	Chippenham Town	12	−14	9