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Sholing v Chichester City

Sholing

2–3Full time

Chichester City

Non League Premier - Southern South · TUE 13 OCT

Full timeGraded 13 Oct 22:30

Sholing 2–3 Chichester City SHOLING WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Sholing win~~47%

~~The market said~~45%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.785

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.781

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay11 notes · 15 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Sholing win at 47%.
1′Much as we predicted: Sholing was 47% before kick-off and our model makes it 48% now. 0–0 · 48–23–29
1′KICK-OFF Sholing v Chichester City
30′⚽ GOAL · 30' Sholing 1–0 Chichester City
31′Sholing find the net on 30′. 1–0. 1–0 · 73–18–9
31′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 31' Sholing win: 47% at kick-off, 73% now
32′We published Sholing at 47%. Our model now makes it 73%. 1–0 · 73–18–9
34′Goals are coming at about the 3.1 we expected. 1–0 · 73–18–9
45′HALF-TIME Sholing 1–0 Chichester City
46′SECOND HALF Sholing 1–0 Chichester City
47′We published Sholing at 47%. Our model now makes it 75%. 1–0 · 75–19–7
56′⚽ GOAL · 30' Sholing 1–0 Chichester City · O. Pendlebury
56′⚽ GOAL · 56' Sholing 1–1 Chichester City
57′A goal for Chichester City on 56′ — 1–1. 1–1 · 34–43–23
57′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 57' Sholing win: 47% at kick-off, 34% now
57′THE CALL SWINGS · 57' Draw is now our likeliest result at 43% (was Sholing win 34%)
58′We said Sholing at 47%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 33%. 1–1 · 33–44–23
68′⚽ GOAL · 68' Sholing 2–1 Chichester City
71′⚽ GOAL · 70' Sholing 2–2 Chichester City
89′Chichester City level it on 70′ through B. Pashley. 2–2. 2–2 · 6–89–5
89′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 89' Sholing win: 47% at kick-off, 6% now
90′We said Sholing at 47%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 5%. 2–2 · 5–90–4
90′B. Chebby scores for Chichester City on 90′ — 2–3. 2–3 · 0–5–95
90′We said Sholing at 47%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 0%. 2–3 · 0–5–95
90′⚽ GOAL · 92' Sholing 2–3 Chichester City
90′THE CALL SWINGS · 90' Chichester City win is now our likeliest result at 95% (was Draw 5%)
FTFULL TIME Sholing 2–3 Chichester City
FTSholing 2–3 Chichester City · Sholing win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Our analyst’s one-line verdict on how this match goes.

What decides it

The reason that decides itThe fact behind it, in one line.

– –

Where the chances come fromThe figure that shows it, in one line.

– –

What could tip the balanceWhat could change it, in one line.

– –

The AI’s read on this match

The verdict, the three reasons that decide it, what would change it and the players to watch — checked live during the game, with a review after full time. Included with a pass.

See the passes

Pre-match prediction

Published 13 Oct 19:33 · locked at kick-off

Sholing win47%

Draw24%

Chichester City win29%

Kick-offTUE 13 OCT · 19:45

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Sholing

Chichester City

3Days since last match3

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
7	Chichester City	10	0	16
16	Sholing	9	−3	11

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · sholing winFirst published 9 Oct 06:15 · updated 13 Oct 19:33 · locked at kick-off

47% The market45%

Us47%

~~Market~~45%

We make Sholing a 47% chance to win. The market has them at 45%. We are within 2 points of the market. The model expects 1.8–1.3.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · sholing win The market, margin stripped

Published at 49%, 47% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 45% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Sholing win	47%	45%	+2
Draw	24%	26%	−2
Chichester City win	29%	29%	0
Over 2.5 goals	59%	57%	+2
Both teams to score	60%	61%	0
Over 1.5 goals	81%	79%	+2
Over 3.5 goals	37%	37%	0
Sholing or draw	71%	71%	0
Sholing clean sheet	27%	–	–
Chichester City clean sheet	18%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.7%

0123450 5.0 6.0 4.1 1 8.0 10.7 6.9 3.1 2 7.1 9.1 6.0 2.7 3 4.2 5.4 3.5 4 2.4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Sholing down, Chichester City across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 2,426 Non League Premier - Southern South matches up to 13 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Non League Premier - Southern South matches have gone over 2.5 in 59.1% of games this season, across 110 played.

Head to head

No previous meeting between these two, so this step adds nothing.

Home and away form

Sholing at home: 1.50 scored, 1.83 conceded a game (last 6). Chichester City away: 0.80 scored, 2.00 conceded (last 5).

What the model expects

1.76 goals for Sholing, 1.33 for Chichester City. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

0 meetings since 2021

No meetings between these two in Non League Premier - Southern South since 2021. Cup ties and meetings in other competitions are not counted here.

Form · last six in Non League Premier - Southern South

SHOLING

LLWLWD2–4 · 1–3 · 1–0 · 1–3 · 2–0 · 1–1

CHICHESTER CITY

WWLDLW2–0 · 3–2 · 0–5 · 2–2 · 1–2 · 3–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Poole Town	11	+6	24
2	Uxbridge	10	+12	23
3	Plymouth Parkway	10	+13	20
4	Hanworth Villa	10	+7	19
5	Bath City	10	+4	17
6	Frome Town	11	+4	16
7	Chichester City	10	0	16
8	Berkhamsted	11	0	16
9	Wimborne Town	9	+9	15
10	Chertsey Town	10	+5	15
11	Gosport Borough	11	+1	15
12	Taunton Town	10	0	13
13	Evesham United	10	−4	13
14	Basingstoke Town	10	+1	12
15	Yate Town	10	−8	12
16	Sholing	9	−3	11
17	Bracknell Town	10	−8	11
18	Hanwell Town	9	−2	10
19	Gloucester City	10	−3	10
20	Chippenham Town	9	−9	8
21	Havant & Wville	10	−10	5
22	Malvern Town	10	−15	5