Poole Town v Hanwell Town prediction · Non League Premier

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · postponed

Poole Town are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Poole Town 55%, draw 24%, Hanwell Town 21%. Over 2.5 goals 51%, both teams to score 51%.

The AI’s read on Poole Town v Hanwell TownBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 14 Oct 04:28 · postponed, not graded

Poole Town win55%

Draw24%

Hanwell Town win21%

Kick-offTUE 20 OCT · 19:45

RoundMatchday 14

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Poole Town

Hanwell Town

3Days since last match3

Last match: 17 Oct · Non League Premier - Southern South

3Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · poole town winFirst published 14 Oct 04:28 · updated 18 Oct 00:17 · postponed, not graded

55% The market–

Us55%

We make Poole Town a 55% chance to win. The model expects 1.7–1.0, and 1–0 is the single most likely score at 11%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Poole Town v Hanwell Town~~1.74 – 0.98

~~Form · last six in Non League Premier - Southern South this season · since 31 Aug~~W6 D0 L0 · W1 D3 L2

~~Table places · points 27 v 11~~1 v 18

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Poole Town win

Published at 53%, 55% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Poole Town win	55%	–	–
Draw	24%	–	–
Hanwell Town win	21%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	51%	–	–
Both teams to score	51%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	75%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	29%	–	–
Poole Town or draw	79%	–	–
Poole Town clean sheet	38%	–	–
Hanwell Town clean sheet	18%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 11.3%

0123450 7.0 6.4 3.2 1 11.3 11.3 5.5 2 9.9 9.5 4.7 3 5.7 5.5 2.7 4 2.6 2.4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Poole Town down, Hanwell Town across0–5 goals a side shown (98.9% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 2,441 Non League Premier - Southern South matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Non League Premier - Southern South matches have gone over 2.5 in 59.2% of games this season, across 125 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 8 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 3.12 goals a meeting; 5 of 8 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Poole Town at home: 1.33 scored, 0.83 conceded a game (last 6). Hanwell Town away: 1.17 scored, 1.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.74 goals for Poole Town, 0.98 for Hanwell Town. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

8 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~3.12

~~Over 2.5~~5 of 8

~~Both scored~~4 of 8

~~Last meetings~~HAN 1–1 POO · POO 1–0 HAN · HAN 3–3 POO · POO 1–2 HAN

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Non League Premier - Southern South this season · since 31 Aug

POOLE TOWN

WWWWWW1–0 · 3–1 · 3–1 · 3–1 · 1–0 · 4–1

HANWELL TOWN

LDDWDL0–1 · 2–2 · 1–1 · 2–1 · 1–1 · 0–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Poole Town	12	+9	27
2	Plymouth Parkway	11	+14	23
3	Uxbridge	10	+12	23
4	Hanworth Villa	12	+10	23
5	Bath City	12	+8	23
6	Frome Town	13	+4	19
7	Chichester City	12	0	19
8	Gosport Borough	12	+5	18
9	Chertsey Town	11	+5	16
10	Taunton Town	11	+3	16
11	Berkhamsted	11	0	16
12	Wimborne Town	10	+8	15
13	Bracknell Town	12	−10	14
14	Evesham United	12	−9	13
15	Basingstoke Town	12	−6	12
16	Yate Town	11	−9	12
17	Sholing	10	−4	11
18	Hanwell Town	11	−4	11
19	Malvern Town	12	−12	11
20	Gloucester City	10	−3	10
21	Havant & Wville	12	−7	9
22	Chippenham Town	11	−14	8