Poole Town v Chertsey Town prediction · Non League Premier

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Poole TownDrawChertsey Town

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 19:45

Before kick-off · Match result · Poole Town 52%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Poole Town are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Poole Town 52%, draw 22%, Chertsey Town 25%. Over 2.5 goals 61%, both teams to score 61%.

The AI’s read on Poole Town v Chertsey TownBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 21 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

Poole Town win52%

Draw22%

Chertsey Town win25%

Kick-offTUE 27 OCT · 19:45

RoundMatchday 15

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Poole Town

Chertsey Town

3Days since last match3

Last match: 24 Oct · the English FA Trophy

2Matches in previous 14 days4

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · poole town winFirst published 21 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

52% The market–

Us52%

We make Poole Town a 52% chance to win. The model expects 1.9–1.3, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 10%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Poole Town v Chertsey Town~~1.93 – 1.27

~~Form · last six in Non League Premier - Southern South this season · since 12 Sept~~W6 D0 L0 · W2 D3 L1

~~Table places · points 27 v 19~~1 v 8

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Poole Town win	52%	–	–
Draw	22%	–	–
Chertsey Town win	25%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	61%	–	–
Both teams to score	61%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	82%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	39%	–	–
Poole Town or draw	75%	–	–
Poole Town clean sheet	29%	–	–
Chertsey Town clean sheet	15%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.1%

0123450 4.5 5.2 3.4 1 7.9 10.1 6.2 2.7 2 7.6 9.4 5.9 2.5 3 4.9 6.0 3.8 4 2.4 3.0 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Poole Town down, Chertsey Town across0–5 goals a side shown (98.1% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 2,449 Non League Premier - Southern South matches up to 20 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Non League Premier - Southern South matches have gone over 2.5 in 58.6% of games this season, across 133 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 5 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 2.60 goals a meeting; 3 of 5 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Poole Town at home: 1.33 scored, 0.83 conceded a game (last 6). Chertsey Town away: 1.67 scored, 2.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.93 goals for Poole Town, 1.27 for Chertsey Town. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

5 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~2.60

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 5

~~Both scored~~3 of 5

~~Last meetings~~CHE 1–3 POO · CHE 0–1 POO · POO 1–0 CHE · POO 3–1 CHE

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Non League Premier - Southern South this season · since 12 Sept

POOLE TOWN

WWWWWW1–0 · 3–1 · 3–1 · 3–1 · 1–0 · 4–1

CHERTSEY TOWN

WDLDDW5–0 · 2–2 · 1–3 · 2–2 · 1–1 · 2–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Poole Town	12	+9	27
2	Uxbridge	11	+15	26
3	Bath City	13	+9	26
4	Hanworth Villa	13	+10	24
5	Plymouth Parkway	11	+14	23
6	Chichester City	13	+2	22
7	Taunton Town	12	+7	19
8	Chertsey Town	12	+7	19
9	Frome Town	13	+4	19
10	Wimborne Town	11	+11	18
11	Gosport Borough	13	+2	18
12	Berkhamsted	12	−2	16
13	Bracknell Town	13	−14	14
14	Yate Town	12	−9	13
15	Evesham United	13	−11	13
16	Sholing	11	−4	12
17	Basingstoke Town	12	−6	12
18	Hanwell Town	11	−4	11
19	Malvern Town	13	−15	11
20	Gloucester City	10	−3	10
21	Havant & Wville	13	−8	9
22	Chippenham Town	12	−14	9