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Plymouth Parkway v Wimborne Town

Plymouth Parkway

2–1Full time

Wimborne Town

Non League Premier - Southern South · TUE 13 OCT

Full timeGraded 13 Oct 22:30

Plymouth Parkway 2–1 Wimborne Town PLYMOUTH PARKWAY WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Plymouth Parkway win~~45%

~~The market said~~41%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.452

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.531

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay10 notes · 15 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Plymouth Parkway win at 45%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Plymouth Parkway 45% before kick-off, 45% now. 0–0 · 45–24–31
1′KICK-OFF Plymouth Parkway v Wimborne Town
7′⚽ GOAL · 7' Plymouth Parkway 1–0 Wimborne Town
8′7′ and it is 1–0: Plymouth Parkway have scored. 1–0 · 69–18–13
8′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 8' Plymouth Parkway win: 45% at kick-off, 69% now
9′We said Plymouth Parkway at 45% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 69%. 1–0 · 69–18–13
12′We said Plymouth Parkway at 45% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 70%. 1–0 · 70–18–13
30′The goal count is tracking the 3.1 we expected. 1–0 · 71–19–10
45′Wimborne Town find the net on 45′. 1–1. 1–1 · 37–36–27
45′⚽ GOAL · 46' Plymouth Parkway 1–1 Wimborne Town
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45' Plymouth Parkway win: 45% at kick-off, 37% now
45′HALF-TIME Plymouth Parkway 1–1 Wimborne Town
47′SECOND HALF Plymouth Parkway 1–1 Wimborne Town
51′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 51' Plymouth Parkway win: 45% at kick-off, 35% now
52′THE CALL SWINGS · 52' Draw is now our likeliest result at 40% (was Plymouth Parkway win 35%)
55′We said Plymouth Parkway at 45%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 33%. 1–1 · 33–42–25
58′⚽ GOAL · 7' Plymouth Parkway 1–1 Wimborne Town · C. Hall
58′⚽ GOAL · 46' Plymouth Parkway 1–1 Wimborne Town · J. Smith
63′We said Plymouth Parkway at 45%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 29%. 1–1 · 29–48–22
84′⚽ GOAL · 84' Plymouth Parkway 2–1 Wimborne Town
90′T. Down scores for Plymouth Parkway on 84′ — 2–1. 2–1 · 96–4–0
90′We said Plymouth Parkway at 45% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 96%. 2–1 · 96–4–0
90′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 90' Plymouth Parkway win: 45% at kick-off, 96% now
90′THE CALL SWINGS · 90' Plymouth Parkway win is now our likeliest result at 96% (was Draw 4%)
FTFULL TIME Plymouth Parkway 2–1 Wimborne Town
FTPlymouth Parkway 2–1 Wimborne Town · Plymouth Parkway win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Our analyst’s one-line verdict on how this match goes.

What decides it

The reason that decides itThe fact behind it, in one line.

– –

Where the chances come fromThe figure that shows it, in one line.

– –

What could tip the balanceWhat could change it, in one line.

– –

The AI’s read on this match

The verdict, the three reasons that decide it, what would change it and the players to watch — checked live during the game, with a review after full time. Included with a pass.

See the passes

Pre-match prediction

Published 13 Oct 19:33 · locked at kick-off

Plymouth Parkway win45%

Draw24%

Wimborne Town win31%

Kick-offTUE 13 OCT · 19:45

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Plymouth Parkway

Wimborne Town

3Days since last match3

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
3	Plymouth Parkway	10	+13	20
9	Wimborne Town	9	+9	15

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · plymouth parkway winFirst published 9 Oct 06:15 · updated 13 Oct 19:33 · locked at kick-off

45% The market41%

Us45%

~~Market~~41%

We make Plymouth Parkway a 45% chance to win. The market has them at 41%. We are 5 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.7–1.4.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · plymouth parkway win The market, margin stripped

Published at 47%, 45% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 41% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Plymouth Parkway win	45%	41%	+5
Draw	24%	26%	−2
Wimborne Town win	31%	33%	−2
Over 2.5 goals	59%	57%	+3
Both teams to score	61%	60%	+1
Over 1.5 goals	81%	79%	+3
Over 3.5 goals	37%	36%	+1
Plymouth Parkway or draw	69%	67%	+2
Plymouth Parkway clean sheet	26%	–	–
Wimborne Town clean sheet	18%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.8%

0123450 4.9 6.2 4.4 2.0 1 7.7 10.8 7.2 3.4 2 6.6 8.9 6.1 2.8 3 3.8 5.1 3.5 4 2.3 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Plymouth Parkway down, Wimborne Town across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 2,426 Non League Premier - Southern South matches up to 13 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Non League Premier - Southern South matches have gone over 2.5 in 59.1% of games this season, across 110 played.

Head to head

4 previous meetings, 3.50 goals a meeting; 3 of 4 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Plymouth Parkway at home: 3.00 scored, 0.67 conceded a game (last 6). Wimborne Town away: 2.17 scored, 0.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.72 goals for Plymouth Parkway, 1.38 for Wimborne Town. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2024

~~Goals a meeting~~3.50

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 4

~~Both scored~~3 of 4

~~Last meetings~~PLY 3–2 WIM · WIM 3–2 PLY · WIM 1–0 PLY · PLY 2–1 WIM

Form · last six in Non League Premier - Southern South

PLYMOUTH PARKWAY

WWWWDL3–1 · 2–0 · 3–1 · 2–0 · 1–1 · 1–3

WIMBORNE TOWN

WDDWWW3–0 · 0–0 · 0–0 · 2–0 · 4–0 · 6–3

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Poole Town	11	+6	24
2	Uxbridge	10	+12	23
3	Plymouth Parkway	10	+13	20
4	Hanworth Villa	10	+7	19
5	Bath City	10	+4	17
6	Frome Town	11	+4	16
7	Chichester City	10	0	16
8	Berkhamsted	11	0	16
9	Wimborne Town	9	+9	15
10	Chertsey Town	10	+5	15
11	Gosport Borough	11	+1	15
12	Taunton Town	10	0	13
13	Evesham United	10	−4	13
14	Basingstoke Town	10	+1	12
15	Yate Town	10	−8	12
16	Sholing	9	−3	11
17	Bracknell Town	10	−8	11
18	Hanwell Town	9	−2	10
19	Gloucester City	10	−3	10
20	Chippenham Town	9	−9	8
21	Havant & Wville	10	−10	5
22	Malvern Town	10	−15	5