Home › Football › Non League Premier - Southern South › Plymouth Parkway v Gloucester City

Plymouth Parkway v Gloucester City

Plymouth Parkway

19:45Upcoming

Gloucester City

Non League Premier - Southern South · TUE 27 OCT

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Plymouth ParkwayDrawGloucester City

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 19:45

Before kick-off · Match result · Plymouth Parkway 40%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with Plymouth Parkway just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: Plymouth Parkway 40%, draw 22%, Gloucester City 38%. Over 2.5 goals 68%, both teams to score 68%.

The AI’s read on Plymouth Parkway v Gloucester CityBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 21 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

Plymouth Parkway win40%

Draw22%

Gloucester City win38%

Kick-offTUE 27 OCT · 19:45

RoundMatchday 15

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Plymouth Parkway

Gloucester City

3Days since last match3

Last match: 24 Oct · Non League Premier - Southern South

Last match: 24 Oct · the English FA Trophy

3Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
5	Plymouth Parkway	11	+14	23
20	Gloucester City	10	−3	10

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · plymouth parkway winFirst published 21 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

40% The market–

Us40%

We make Plymouth Parkway a 40% chance to win. The model expects 1.8–1.7, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 9%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Plymouth Parkway v Gloucester City~~1.82 – 1.75

~~Form · last six in Non League Premier - Southern South this season · since 29 Aug~~W3 D1 L2 · W1 D3 L2

~~Table places · points 23 v 10~~5 v 20

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Plymouth Parkway win	40%	–	–
Draw	22%	–	–
Gloucester City win	38%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	68%	–	–
Both teams to score	68%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	87%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	47%	–	–
Plymouth Parkway or draw	62%	–	–
Plymouth Parkway clean sheet	18%	–	–
Gloucester City clean sheet	17%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 9.1%

0123450 3.2 5.0 4.4 2.6 1 5.1 9.1 7.7 4.5 2 4.7 7.9 6.8 4.0 3 2.9 4.8 4.1 2.4 4 2.2 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Plymouth Parkway down, Gloucester City across0–5 goals a side shown (97.6% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 2,449 Non League Premier - Southern South matches up to 20 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Non League Premier - Southern South matches have gone over 2.5 in 58.6% of games this season, across 133 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 5 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 3.80 goals a meeting; 4 of 5 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Plymouth Parkway at home: 2.83 scored, 0.33 conceded a game (last 6). Gloucester City away: 2.00 scored, 3.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.82 goals for Plymouth Parkway, 1.75 for Gloucester City. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

5 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~3.80

~~Over 2.5~~4 of 5

~~Both scored~~3 of 5

~~Last meetings~~GLO 1–1 PLY · GLO 3–0 PLY · PLY 2–1 GLO · PLY 6–0 GLO

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Non League Premier - Southern South this season · since 29 Aug

PLYMOUTH PARKWAY

WWDLWL3–1 · 2–0 · 1–1 · 1–3 · 2–1 · 0–2

GLOUCESTER CITY

DLDLDW3–3 · 1–2 · 1–1 · 2–5 · 1–1 · 3–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Poole Town	12	+9	27
2	Uxbridge	11	+15	26
3	Bath City	13	+9	26
4	Hanworth Villa	13	+10	24
5	Plymouth Parkway	11	+14	23
6	Chichester City	13	+2	22
7	Taunton Town	12	+7	19
8	Chertsey Town	12	+7	19
9	Frome Town	13	+4	19
10	Wimborne Town	11	+11	18
11	Gosport Borough	13	+2	18
12	Berkhamsted	12	−2	16
13	Bracknell Town	13	−14	14
14	Yate Town	12	−9	13
15	Evesham United	13	−11	13
16	Sholing	11	−4	12
17	Basingstoke Town	12	−6	12
18	Hanwell Town	11	−4	11
19	Malvern Town	13	−15	11
20	Gloucester City	10	−3	10
21	Havant & Wville	13	−8	9
22	Chippenham Town	12	−14	9