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Home › Football › Non League Premier - Southern South › Malvern Town v Yate Town

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Malvern Town v Yate Town

Malvern Town
3–2Full time
Yate Town

Non League Premier - Southern South · TUE 13 OCT

Full timeGraded 13 Oct 22:30
Malvern Town 3–2 Yate Town MALVERN TOWN WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Malvern Town win40%
The market said42%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.552
The market’s Brier score0.507

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay14 notes · 24 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Malvern Town win at 40%.
  2. 1′KICK-OFF Malvern Town v Yate Town
  3. 2′Much as we predicted: Malvern Town was 40% before kick-off and our model makes it 40% now. 0–0 · 40–22–38
  4. 5′⚽ GOAL · 5' Malvern Town 0–1 Yate Town
  5. 6′A goal for Yate Town on 5′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 20–19–60
  6. 6′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 6' Malvern Town win: 40% at kick-off, 20% now
  7. 6′THE CALL SWINGS · 6' Yate Town win is now our likeliest result at 60% (was Malvern Town win 20%)
  8. 8′We said Malvern Town at 40%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 20%. 0–1 · 20–20–61
  9. 10′We said Malvern Town at 40%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 19%. 0–1 · 19–20–61
  10. 24′24′ and it is 1–1: Malvern Town have scored. 1–1 · 38–26–36
  11. 24′⚽ GOAL · 24' Malvern Town 1–1 Yate Town
  12. 24′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 24' Malvern Town win: 40% at kick-off, 38% now
  13. 25′⚽ GOAL · 25' Malvern Town 2–1 Yate Town
  14. 26′Malvern Town find the net on 25′. 2–1. 2–1 · 64–20–15
  15. 26′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 26' Malvern Town win: 40% at kick-off, 64% now
  16. 26′THE CALL SWINGS · 26' Malvern Town win is now our likeliest result at 64% (was Yate Town win 15%)
  17. 27′We published Malvern Town at 40%. Our model now makes it 65%. 2–1 · 65–20–15
  18. 37′⚽ GOAL · 37' Malvern Town 2–2 Yate Town
  19. 39′J. Ollis scores for Yate Town on 37′ — 2–2. 2–2 · 35–31–34
  20. 39′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 39' Malvern Town win: 40% at kick-off, 35% now
  21. 40′4 goals already, more than the 3.5 we expected for the whole match. 2–2 · 35–31–34
  22. 45′HALF-TIME Malvern Town 2–2 Yate Town
  23. 46′SECOND HALF Malvern Town 2–2 Yate Town
  24. 53′THE CALL SWINGS · 53' Draw is now our likeliest result at 38% (was Malvern Town win 32%)
  25. 54′⚽ GOAL · 5' Malvern Town 2–2 Yate Town · R. Mannings
  26. 54′⚽ GOAL · 24' Malvern Town 2–2 Yate Town · J. Malshanskyj
  27. 54′⚽ GOAL · 25' Malvern Town 2–2 Yate Town · J. Tumelty
  28. 54′⚽ GOAL · 37' Malvern Town 2–2 Yate Town · J. Ollis
  29. 58′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 58' Malvern Town win: 40% at kick-off, 30% now
  30. 62′We said Malvern Town at 40%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 28%. 2–2 · 28–44–27
  31. 87′We said Malvern Town at 40%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 8%. 2–2 · 8–85–8
  32. 87′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 87' Malvern Town win: 40% at kick-off, 8% now
  33. 90′90′ and it is 3–2: H. Clark on the scoresheet for Malvern Town. 3–2 · 95–5–0
  34. 90′We published Malvern Town at 40%. Our model now makes it 95%. 3–2 · 95–5–0
  35. 90′That is 5, and we only asked for 3.5 across ninety minutes. 3–2 · 95–5–0
  36. 90′⚽ GOAL · 92' Malvern Town 3–2 Yate Town
  37. 90′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 90' Malvern Town win: 40% at kick-off, 95% now
  38. 90′THE CALL SWINGS · 90' Malvern Town win is now our likeliest result at 95% (was Draw 5%)
  39. FTFULL TIME Malvern Town 3–2 Yate Town
  40. FTMalvern Town 3–2 Yate Town · Malvern Town win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Our analyst’s one-line verdict on how this match goes.

What decides it

1

The reason that decides itThe fact behind it, in one line.

– –
2

Where the chances come fromThe figure that shows it, in one line.

– –
3

What could tip the balanceWhat could change it, in one line.

– –
The AI’s read on this match

The verdict, the three reasons that decide it, what would change it and the players to watch — checked live during the game, with a review after full time. Included with a pass.

See the passes

Pre-match prediction

Published 13 Oct 19:33 · locked at kick-off

Malvern Town win40%
Draw22%
Yate Town win38%

Kick-offTUE 13 OCT · 19:45

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Malvern Town

Yate Town

3Days since last match3
2Matches in previous 14 days3

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#TEAMPGDPTS
15Yate Town10−812
22Malvern Town10−155

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · malvern town winFirst published 9 Oct 06:15 · updated 13 Oct 19:33 · locked at kick-off
40% The market42%
Us40%
Market42%

We make Malvern Town a 40% chance to win. The market has them at 42%. We are within 2 points of the market. The model expects 1.8–1.7.

How the number movedSince we published
35%40%45% 9 OCT 06:1813 OCT 05:35
Our probability · malvern town win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 42% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Malvern Town win40%42%−2
Draw22%25%−3
Yate Town win38%32%+5
Over 2.5 goals68%61%+7
Both teams to score68%64%+4
Over 1.5 goals86%82%+5
Over 3.5 goals47%40%+6
Malvern Town or draw62%68%−5
Malvern Town clean sheet18%––
Yate Town clean sheet17%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 9.2%
0123450 3.3 5.1 4.5 2.6 1 5.3 9.2 7.7 4.5 2 4.8 8.0 6.8 4.0 3 2.9 4.8 4.1 2.4 4 2.2 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Malvern Town down, Yate Town across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

0 meetings since 2021

No meetings between these two in Non League Premier - Southern South since 2021. Cup ties and meetings in other competitions are not counted here.

Form · last six in Non League Premier - Southern South

MALVERN TOWN

LLLWLL2–4 · 1–2 · 0–5 · 5–2 · 1–2 · 1–4

YATE TOWN

LLWLDL1–2 · 1–4 · 3–2 · 0–4 · 3–3 · 0–3

The table

2026/27
#TEAMPGDPTS
1Poole Town11+624
2Uxbridge10+1223
3Plymouth Parkway10+1320
4Hanworth Villa10+719
5Bath City10+417
6Frome Town11+416
7Chichester City10016
8Berkhamsted11016
9Wimborne Town9+915
10Chertsey Town10+515
11Gosport Borough11+115
12Taunton Town10013
13Evesham United10−413
14Basingstoke Town10+112
15Yate Town10−812
16Sholing9−311
17Bracknell Town10−811
18Hanwell Town9−210
19Gloucester City10−310
20Chippenham Town9−98
21Havant & Wville10−105
22Malvern Town10−155

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.