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Home › Football › Non League Premier - Southern South › Malvern Town v Frome Town

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Malvern Town v Frome Town

Malvern Town
2–0Full time
Frome Town

Non League Premier - Southern South · SAT 17 OCT

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 18:10
Malvern Town 2–0 Frome Town FROME TOWN WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Frome Town win42%
The market said45%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.661
The market’s Brier score0.756

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay10 notes · 11 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Frome Town win at 42%.
  2. 1′Much as we predicted: Frome Town was 42% before kick-off and our model makes it 42% now. 0–0 · 34–24–42
  3. 1′KICK-OFF Malvern Town v Frome Town
  4. 6′Much as we predicted: Frome Town was 42% before kick-off and our model makes it 41% now. 0–0 · 34–24–41
  5. 45′HALF-TIME Malvern Town 0–0 Frome Town
  6. 46′SECOND HALF Malvern Town 0–0 Frome Town
  7. 50′THE CALL SWINGS · 50' Draw is now our likeliest result at 38% (was Frome Town win 33%)
  8. 53′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 53' Frome Town win: 42% at kick-off, 32% now
  9. 55′We expected about 3.2 goals. There have been none, and the clock is running down. 0–0 · 27–41–32
  10. 56′A goal for Malvern Town on 56′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 69–23–9
  11. 56′⚽ GOAL · 56' Malvern Town 1–0 Frome Town
  12. 56′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 56' Frome Town win: 42% at kick-off, 9% now
  13. 56′THE CALL SWINGS · 56' Malvern Town win is now our likeliest result at 69% (was Draw 23%)
  14. 57′A goal for Malvern Town on 56′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 69–22–8
  15. 57′We said Frome Town at 42%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 8%. 1–0 · 69–22–8
  16. 59′Malvern Town score on 58′ to make it 2–0. 2–0 · 92–6–1
  17. 59′57′: H. Clark on the scoresheet for Malvern Town, making it 2–0. 2–0 · 92–6–1
  18. 59′⚽ GOAL · 58' Malvern Town 2–0 Frome Town
  19. 59′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 59' Frome Town win: 42% at kick-off, 1% now
  20. 60′We said Frome Town at 42%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 1%. 2–0 · 93–6–1
  21. 60′Goals are coming at about the 3.2 we expected. 2–0 · 93–6–1
  22. FTFULL TIME Malvern Town 2–0 Frome Town
  23. FTMalvern Town 2–0 Frome Town · Frome Town win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass
Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Frome Town are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Malvern Town 35%, draw 23%, Frome Town 42%. Over 2.5 goals 62%, both teams to score 63%.

The AI’s read on Malvern Town v Frome TownBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Malvern Town win35%
Draw23%
Frome Town win42%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 15:00

RoundMatchday 13

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Malvern Town

Frome Town

4Days since last match4

Last match: 13 Oct · Non League Premier - Southern South

Last match: 13 Oct · Non League Premier - Southern South

2Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026/27

Positions before kick-off

#TEAMPGDPTS
6Frome Town12+619
22Malvern Town11−148

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · frome town winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · updated 14 Oct 04:39 · locked at kick-off
42% The market45%
Us42%
Market45%

We make Frome Town a 42% chance to win. The market has them at 45%. We are 3 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.5–1.7.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Malvern Town v Frome Town1.52 – 1.70
Form · last six in Non League Premier - Southern South this season · since 31 AugW2 D0 L4 · W1 D4 L1
Table places · points 8 v 1922 v 6
The market · Frome Town win45% · ours 42%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
40%45%50% 11 OCT 04:0217 OCT 14:07
Our probability · Frome Town win The market, margin stripped

Published at 41%, 42% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 45% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Malvern Town win35%30%+5
Draw23%25%−2
Frome Town win42%45%−3
Over 2.5 goals62%60%+2
Both teams to score63%64%−1
Over 1.5 goals83%81%+2
Over 3.5 goals40%40%0
Malvern Town or draw58%55%+3
Malvern Town clean sheet19%––
Frome Town clean sheet23%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 5 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.4%
0123450 4.5 6.8 5.8 3.3 1 6.0 10.4 8.5 4.8 2.1 2 4.7 7.6 6.4 3.6 3 2.4 3.9 3.3 4 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Malvern Town down, Frome Town across0–5 goals a side shown (98.5% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2023/24
Goals a meeting4.50
Over 2.54 of 4
Both scored3 of 4
Last meetingsFRO 2–1 MAL · MAL 1–6 FRO · FRO 4–0 MAL · MAL 1–3 FRO

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Non League Premier - Southern South this season · since 31 Aug

MALVERN TOWN

LLWLLW1–2 · 0–5 · 5–2 · 1–2 · 1–4 · 3–2

FROME TOWN

DLDDDW2–2 · 0–2 · 2–2 · 3–3 · 1–1 · 2–0

The table

2026/27
#TEAMPGDPTS
1Poole Town11+624
2Plymouth Parkway11+1423
3Uxbridge10+1223
4Hanworth Villa11+1022
5Bath City11+620
6Frome Town12+619
7Chichester City11+119
8Chertsey Town11+516
9Berkhamsted11016
10Wimborne Town10+815
11Gosport Borough11+115
12Taunton Town10013
13Evesham United11−613
14Basingstoke Town11−212
15Yate Town11−912
16Hanwell Town10−211
17Sholing10−411
18Bracknell Town11−1111
19Gloucester City10−310
20Havant & Wville11−78
21Chippenham Town10−118
22Malvern Town11−148

The competition's standings before kick-off.