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Malvern Town v Frome Town
Malvern Town
Frome TownNon League Premier - Southern South · SAT 17 OCT
The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.
- 0′Before kick-off: we said Frome Town win at 42%.
- 1′Much as we predicted: Frome Town was 42% before kick-off and our model makes it 42% now. 0–0 · 34–24–42
- 1′KICK-OFF Malvern Town v Frome Town
- 6′Much as we predicted: Frome Town was 42% before kick-off and our model makes it 41% now. 0–0 · 34–24–41
- 45′HALF-TIME Malvern Town 0–0 Frome Town
- 46′SECOND HALF Malvern Town 0–0 Frome Town
- 50′THE CALL SWINGS · 50' Draw is now our likeliest result at 38% (was Frome Town win 33%)
- 53′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 53' Frome Town win: 42% at kick-off, 32% now
- 55′We expected about 3.2 goals. There have been none, and the clock is running down. 0–0 · 27–41–32
- 56′A goal for Malvern Town on 56′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 69–23–9
- 56′⚽ GOAL · 56' Malvern Town 1–0 Frome Town
- 56′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 56' Frome Town win: 42% at kick-off, 9% now
- 56′THE CALL SWINGS · 56' Malvern Town win is now our likeliest result at 69% (was Draw 23%)
- 57′A goal for Malvern Town on 56′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 69–22–8
- 57′We said Frome Town at 42%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 8%. 1–0 · 69–22–8
- 59′Malvern Town score on 58′ to make it 2–0. 2–0 · 92–6–1
- 59′57′: H. Clark on the scoresheet for Malvern Town, making it 2–0. 2–0 · 92–6–1
- 59′⚽ GOAL · 58' Malvern Town 2–0 Frome Town
- 59′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 59' Frome Town win: 42% at kick-off, 1% now
- 60′We said Frome Town at 42%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 1%. 2–0 · 93–6–1
- 60′Goals are coming at about the 3.2 we expected. 2–0 · 93–6–1
- FTFULL TIME Malvern Town 2–0 Frome Town
- FTMalvern Town 2–0 Frome Town · Frome Town win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong
What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.
The match pulse
BEFORE KICK-OFF
Match outcome probability (%)
AI match analysis
PassFrome Town are narrow favourites.
The Pitchside prediction: Malvern Town 35%, draw 23%, Frome Town 42%. Over 2.5 goals 62%, both teams to score 63%.
Pre-match prediction
First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off
Malvern Town win35%
Frome Town win42%Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 15:00
RoundMatchday 13
Match timeline
All events
Malvern TownMIN
Frome TownEvents will appear when the match starts.
Line-ups
Rest & schedule
Before kick-off · every competition we cover
Malvern Town
Frome Town
Last match: 13 Oct · Non League Premier - Southern South
Last match: 13 Oct · Non League Premier - Southern South
Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.
Line-ups
Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.
Match statistics
Match statistics aren’t available yet.
Line-ups
Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.
We make Frome Town a 42% chance to win. The market has them at 45%. We are 3 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.5–1.7.
What the number rests on
Our modelBuilt from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.
Published at 41%, 42% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 45% now.
| Market | Us | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Malvern Town win | 35% | 30% | +5 |
| Draw | 23% | 25% | −2 |
| Frome Town win | 42% | 45% | −3 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 62% | 60% | +2 |
| Both teams to score | 63% | 64% | −1 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 83% | 81% | +2 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 40% | 40% | 0 |
| Malvern Town or draw | 58% | 55% | +3 |
| Malvern Town clean sheet | 19% | – | – |
| Frome Town clean sheet | 23% | – | – |
Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 5 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.
This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.
Head to head
4 meetings since 2023/24Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.
Form · last six in Non League Premier - Southern South this season · since 31 Aug
MALVERN TOWN
FROME TOWN
The table
2026/27| # | TEAM | P | GD | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Poole Town | 11 | +6 | 24 |
| 2 | Plymouth Parkway | 11 | +14 | 23 |
| 3 | Uxbridge | 10 | +12 | 23 |
| 4 | Hanworth Villa | 11 | +10 | 22 |
| 5 | Bath City | 11 | +6 | 20 |
| 6 | Frome Town | 12 | +6 | 19 |
| 7 | Chichester City | 11 | +1 | 19 |
| 8 | Chertsey Town | 11 | +5 | 16 |
| 9 | Berkhamsted | 11 | 0 | 16 |
| 10 | Wimborne Town | 10 | +8 | 15 |
| 11 | Gosport Borough | 11 | +1 | 15 |
| 12 | Taunton Town | 10 | 0 | 13 |
| 13 | Evesham United | 11 | −6 | 13 |
| 14 | Basingstoke Town | 11 | −2 | 12 |
| 15 | Yate Town | 11 | −9 | 12 |
| 16 | Hanwell Town | 10 | −2 | 11 |
| 17 | Sholing | 10 | −4 | 11 |
| 18 | Bracknell Town | 11 | −11 | 11 |
| 19 | Gloucester City | 10 | −3 | 10 |
| 20 | Havant & Wville | 11 | −7 | 8 |
| 21 | Chippenham Town | 10 | −11 | 8 |
| 22 | Malvern Town | 11 | −14 | 8 |
The competition's standings before kick-off.
Poole Town
Plymouth Parkway
Uxbridge
Hanworth Villa
Bath City
Chichester City
Chertsey Town
Berkhamsted
Wimborne Town
Gosport Borough
Taunton Town
Evesham United
Basingstoke Town
Yate Town
Hanwell Town
Sholing
Bracknell Town
Gloucester City
Havant & Wville
Chippenham Town