Malvern Town v Bath City prediction · Non League Premier

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · postponed

Bath City are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Malvern Town 30%, draw 23%, Bath City 47%. Over 2.5 goals 60%, both teams to score 61%.

The AI’s read on Malvern Town v Bath CityBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 21 Oct 00:01 · postponed, not graded

Malvern Town win30%

Draw23%

Bath City win47%

Kick-offTUE 27 OCT · 19:45

RoundMatchday 15

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Malvern Town

Bath City

7Days since last match7

Last match: 20 Oct · Non League Premier - Southern South

3Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
3	Bath City	13	+9	26
19	Malvern Town	13	−15	11

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · bath city winFirst published 21 Oct 00:01 · postponed, not graded

47% The market–

Us47%

We make Bath City a 47% chance to win. The model expects 1.4–1.8, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 11%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Malvern Town v Bath City~~1.36 – 1.78

~~Form · last six in Non League Premier - Southern South this season · since 22 Sept~~W3 D0 L3 · W5 D0 L1

~~Table places · points 11 v 26~~19 v 3

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Malvern Town win	30%	–	–
Draw	23%	–	–
Bath City win	47%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	60%	–	–
Both teams to score	61%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	82%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	38%	–	–
Malvern Town or draw	53%	–	–
Malvern Town clean sheet	17%	–	–
Bath City clean sheet	26%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.5%

0123450 4.7 7.6 6.8 4.1 1 5.8 10.5 9.0 5.4 2.5 2 4.1 7.0 6.1 3.6 3 3.2 2.8 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Malvern Town down, Bath City across0–5 goals a side shown (98.5% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 2,449 Non League Premier - Southern South matches up to 20 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Non League Premier - Southern South matches have gone over 2.5 in 58.6% of games this season, across 133 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 1 previous meeting since 2023/24 in every competition we cover, 3.00 goals a meeting; 1 of 1 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Malvern Town at home: 2.17 scored, 1.83 conceded a game (last 6). Bath City away: 1.67 scored, 0.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.36 goals for Malvern Town, 1.78 for Bath City. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

1 meeting since 2023/24

~~Goals a meeting~~3.00

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 1

~~Both scored~~1 of 1

~~Last meetings~~BAT 2–1 MAL

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Non League Premier - Southern South this season · since 22 Sept

MALVERN TOWN

WLLWWL5–2 · 1–2 · 1–4 · 3–2 · 2–0 · 0–3

BATH CITY

WWLWWW3–1 · 2–1 · 1–2 · 2–0 · 2–0 · 1–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Poole Town	12	+9	27
2	Uxbridge	11	+15	26
3	Bath City	13	+9	26
4	Hanworth Villa	13	+10	24
5	Plymouth Parkway	11	+14	23
6	Chichester City	13	+2	22
7	Taunton Town	12	+7	19
8	Chertsey Town	12	+7	19
9	Frome Town	13	+4	19
10	Wimborne Town	11	+11	18
11	Gosport Borough	13	+2	18
12	Berkhamsted	12	−2	16
13	Bracknell Town	13	−14	14
14	Yate Town	12	−9	13
15	Evesham United	13	−11	13
16	Sholing	11	−4	12
17	Basingstoke Town	12	−6	12
18	Hanwell Town	11	−4	11
19	Malvern Town	13	−15	11
20	Gloucester City	10	−3	10
21	Havant & Wville	13	−8	9
22	Chippenham Town	12	−14	9