Havant & Wville v Hanworth Villa prediction · Non League Premier

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 18:10

Havant & Wville 2–2 Hanworth Villa HAVANT & WVILLE WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Havant & Wville win~~41%

~~The market said~~33%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.903

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.824

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay12 notes · 12 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Havant & Wville win at 41%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Havant & Wville 41% before kick-off, 41% now. 0–0 · 41–23–36
1′KICK-OFF Havant & Wville v Hanworth Villa
6′Little has changed for our model: Havant & Wville 41% before kick-off, 41% now. 0–0 · 41–23–36
8′Hanworth Villa find the net on 8′. 0–1. 0–1 · 21–20–60
8′⚽ GOAL · 8' Havant & Wville 0–1 Hanworth Villa
8′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 8' Havant & Wville win: 41% at kick-off, 21% now
8′THE CALL SWINGS · 8' Hanworth Villa win is now our likeliest result at 60% (was Havant & Wville win 21%)
9′We said Havant & Wville at 41%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 21%. 0–1 · 21–20–60
16′We said Havant & Wville at 41%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 19%. 0–1 · 19–20–60
31′The goal count is tracking the 3.5 we expected. 0–1 · 16–22–62
38′We said Havant & Wville at 41%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 14%. 0–1 · 14–22–64
49′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45+4' Havant & Wville win: 41% at kick-off, 11% now
55′We said Havant & Wville at 41%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 9%. 0–1 · 9–22–68
68′A goal for Hanworth Villa on 67′ — 0–2. 0–2 · 1–4–95
68′We said Havant & Wville at 41%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 1%. 0–2 · 1–4–95
68′⚽ GOAL · 67' Havant & Wville 0–2 Hanworth Villa
68′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 68' Havant & Wville win: 41% at kick-off, 1% now
90′Havant & Wville find the net on 90′. 2–2. 2–2 · 6–89–5
90′That is 4, and we only asked for 3.5 across ninety minutes. 2–2 · 6–89–5
90′⚽ GOAL · 90+11' Havant & Wville 2–2 Hanworth Villa
90′⚽ GOAL · 90' Havant & Wville 2–2 Hanworth Villa
90′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 90' Havant & Wville win: 41% at kick-off, 6% now
90′THE CALL SWINGS · 90' Draw is now our likeliest result at 89% (was Hanworth Villa win 5%)
FTFULL TIME Havant & Wville 2–2 Hanworth Villa
FTHavant & Wville 2–2 Hanworth Villa · Havant & Wville win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Havant & Wville are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Havant & Wville 41%, draw 22%, Hanworth Villa 36%. Over 2.5 goals 67%, both teams to score 67%.

The AI’s read on Havant & Wville v Hanworth VillaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Havant & Wville win41%

Draw22%

Hanworth Villa win36%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 15:00

RoundMatchday 13

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Havant & Wville

Hanworth Villa

4Days since last match4

Last match: 13 Oct · Non League Premier - Southern South

2Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
4	Hanworth Villa	11	+10	22
20	Havant & Wville	11	−7	8

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · havant & wville winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · updated 14 Oct 04:39 · locked at kick-off

41% The market33%

Us41%

~~Market~~33%

We make Havant & Wville a 41% chance to win. The market has them at 33%. We are 8 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.8–1.7.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Havant & Wville v Hanworth Villa~~1.80 – 1.68

~~Form · last six in Non League Premier - Southern South this season · since 31 Aug~~W1 D1 L4 · W4 D0 L2

~~Table places · points 8 v 22~~20 v 4

~~The market · Havant & Wville win~~33% · ours 41%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Havant & Wville win The market, margin stripped

Published at 43%, 41% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 33% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Havant & Wville win	41%	33%	+8
Draw	22%	26%	−4
Hanworth Villa win	36%	41%	−5
Over 2.5 goals	67%	60%	+7
Both teams to score	67%	64%	+3
Over 1.5 goals	86%	80%	+6
Over 3.5 goals	46%	41%	+5
Havant & Wville or draw	64%	59%	+5
Havant & Wville clean sheet	19%	–	–
Hanworth Villa clean sheet	17%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 5 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 9.4%

0123450 3.5 5.2 4.4 2.5 1 5.5 9.4 7.6 4.3 2 5.0 8.2 6.7 3.8 3 3.0 4.9 4.1 2.3 4 2.3 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Havant & Wville down, Hanworth Villa across0–5 goals a side shown (97.9% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 2,434 Non League Premier - Southern South matches up to 13 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Non League Premier - Southern South matches have gone over 2.5 in 59.3% of games this season, across 118 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2022/23.

Home and away form

Havant & Wville at home: 1.50 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). Hanworth Villa away: 1.40 scored, 0.60 conceded (last 5).

What the model expects

1.80 goals for Havant & Wville, 1.68 for Hanworth Villa. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2022/23

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2022/23.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Non League Premier - Southern South this season · since 31 Aug

HAVANT & WVILLE

LLLDLW2–3 · 0–1 · 1–2 · 1–1 · 3–6 · 4–1

HANWORTH VILLA

WLWWLW4–1 · 2–3 · 2–1 · 2–1 · 1–3 · 4–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Poole Town	11	+6	24
2	Plymouth Parkway	11	+14	23
3	Uxbridge	10	+12	23
4	Hanworth Villa	11	+10	22
5	Bath City	11	+6	20
6	Frome Town	12	+6	19
7	Chichester City	11	+1	19
8	Chertsey Town	11	+5	16
9	Berkhamsted	11	0	16
10	Wimborne Town	10	+8	15
11	Gosport Borough	11	+1	15
12	Taunton Town	10	0	13
13	Evesham United	11	−6	13
14	Basingstoke Town	11	−2	12
15	Yate Town	11	−9	12
16	Hanwell Town	10	−2	11
17	Sholing	10	−4	11
18	Bracknell Town	11	−11	11
19	Gloucester City	10	−3	10
20	Havant & Wville	11	−7	8
21	Chippenham Town	10	−11	8
22	Malvern Town	11	−14	8