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Havant & Wville v Basingstoke Town

Havant & Wville

4–1Full time

Basingstoke Town

Non League Premier - Southern South · TUE 13 OCT

Full timeGraded 13 Oct 22:30

Havant & Wville 4–1 Basingstoke Town HAVANT & WVILLE WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Havant & Wville win~~50%

~~The market said~~43%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.370

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.487

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay13 notes · 16 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Havant & Wville win at 50%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Havant & Wville 50% before kick-off, 51% now. 0–0 · 51–21–28
1′KICK-OFF Havant & Wville v Basingstoke Town
20′⚽ GOAL · 20' Havant & Wville 1–0 Basingstoke Town
21′Havant & Wville find the net on 20′. 1–0. 1–0 · 72–17–11
21′We said Havant & Wville at 50% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 72%. 1–0 · 72–17–11
21′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 21' Havant & Wville win: 50% at kick-off, 72% now
30′The goal count is tracking the 3.5 we expected. 1–0 · 73–17–10
45′A goal for Havant & Wville on 45′ — 2–0. 2–0 · 92–6–2
45′We said Havant & Wville at 50% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 92%. 2–0 · 92–6–2
45′⚽ GOAL · 48' Havant & Wville 2–0 Basingstoke Town
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 45' Havant & Wville win: 50% at kick-off, 92% now
45′HALF-TIME Havant & Wville 2–0 Basingstoke Town
47′SECOND HALF Havant & Wville 2–0 Basingstoke Town
57′57′ and it is 2–1: Basingstoke Town have scored. 2–1 · 76–18–6
57′⚽ GOAL · 21' Havant & Wville 2–1 Basingstoke Town · R. Seager
57′⚽ GOAL · 48' Havant & Wville 2–1 Basingstoke Town · R. Seager
57′⚽ GOAL · 57' Havant & Wville 2–1 Basingstoke Town
57′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 57' Havant & Wville win: 50% at kick-off, 76% now
59′We said Havant & Wville at 50% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 77%. 2–1 · 77–18–5
59′⚽ GOAL · 59' Havant & Wville 3–1 Basingstoke Town
60′Havant & Wville find the net on 59′. 3–1. 3–1 · 95–4–1
60′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 60' Havant & Wville win: 50% at kick-off, 95% now
61′We said Havant & Wville at 50% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 95%. 3–1 · 95–4–1
62′That is 4, and we only asked for 3.5 across ninety minutes. 3–1 · 95–4–1
80′⚽ GOAL · 80' Havant & Wville 4–1 Basingstoke Town
90′M. Aston scores for Havant & Wville on 80′ — 4–1. 4–1 · 100–0–0
90′We said Havant & Wville at 50% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 100%. 4–1 · 100–0–0
90′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 90' Havant & Wville win: 50% at kick-off, 100% now
FTFULL TIME Havant & Wville 4–1 Basingstoke Town
FTHavant & Wville 4–1 Basingstoke Town · Havant & Wville win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Our analyst’s one-line verdict on how this match goes.

What decides it

The reason that decides itThe fact behind it, in one line.

– –

Where the chances come fromThe figure that shows it, in one line.

– –

What could tip the balanceWhat could change it, in one line.

– –

The AI’s read on this match

The verdict, the three reasons that decide it, what would change it and the players to watch — checked live during the game, with a review after full time. Included with a pass.

See the passes

Pre-match prediction

Published 13 Oct 19:33 · locked at kick-off

Havant & Wville win50%

Draw21%

Basingstoke Town win28%

Kick-offTUE 13 OCT · 19:45

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Havant & Wville

Basingstoke Town

3Days since last match3

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
14	Basingstoke Town	10	+1	12
21	Havant & Wville	10	−10	5

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · havant & wville winFirst published 9 Oct 06:15 · updated 13 Oct 19:33 · locked at kick-off

50% The market43%

Us50%

~~Market~~43%

We make Havant & Wville a 50% chance to win. The market has them at 43%. We are 7 points more confident than the market. The model expects 2.0–1.5.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · havant & wville win The market, margin stripped

Published at 52%, 50% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 43% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Havant & Wville win	50%	43%	+7
Draw	21%	25%	−4
Basingstoke Town win	28%	31%	−3
Over 2.5 goals	68%	60%	+8
Both teams to score	67%	62%	+4
Over 1.5 goals	86%	80%	+7
Over 3.5 goals	47%	40%	+7
Havant & Wville or draw	72%	69%	+3
Havant & Wville clean sheet	23%	–	–
Basingstoke Town clean sheet	13%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 9.0%

0123450 3.3 4.3 3.3 1 6.0 9.0 6.5 3.2 2 6.2 8.9 6.5 3.2 3 4.2 6.0 4.4 2.2 4 2.2 3.1 2.3 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Havant & Wville down, Basingstoke Town across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 2,426 Non League Premier - Southern South matches up to 13 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Non League Premier - Southern South matches have gone over 2.5 in 59.1% of games this season, across 110 played.

Head to head

4 previous meetings, 3.25 goals a meeting; 3 of 4 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Havant & Wville at home: 1.00 scored, 1.67 conceded a game (last 6). Basingstoke Town away: 1.50 scored, 1.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.05 goals for Havant & Wville, 1.49 for Basingstoke Town. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2024

~~Goals a meeting~~3.25

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 4

~~Both scored~~2 of 4

~~Last meetings~~HAV 0–0 BAS · BAS 1–3 HAV · BAS 0–3 HAV · HAV 5–1 BAS

Form · last six in Non League Premier - Southern South

HAVANT & WVILLE

DLLLDL3–3 · 2–3 · 0–1 · 1–2 · 1–1 · 3–6

BASINGSTOKE TOWN

LWDDLW3–4 · 2–1 · 1–1 · 1–1 · 1–2 · 4–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Poole Town	11	+6	24
2	Uxbridge	10	+12	23
3	Plymouth Parkway	10	+13	20
4	Hanworth Villa	10	+7	19
5	Bath City	10	+4	17
6	Frome Town	11	+4	16
7	Chichester City	10	0	16
8	Berkhamsted	11	0	16
9	Wimborne Town	9	+9	15
10	Chertsey Town	10	+5	15
11	Gosport Borough	11	+1	15
12	Taunton Town	10	0	13
13	Evesham United	10	−4	13
14	Basingstoke Town	10	+1	12
15	Yate Town	10	−8	12
16	Sholing	9	−3	11
17	Bracknell Town	10	−8	11
18	Hanwell Town	9	−2	10
19	Gloucester City	10	−3	10
20	Chippenham Town	9	−9	8
21	Havant & Wville	10	−10	5
22	Malvern Town	10	−15	5