Home › Football › Non League Premier - Southern South › Hanworth Villa v Gloucester City

Hanworth Villa v Gloucester City

Hanworth Villa

1–3Full time

Gloucester City

Non League Premier - Southern South · SAT 10 OCT

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 17:33

Hanworth Villa 1–3 Gloucester City HANWORTH VILLA WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Hanworth Villa win~~44%

~~The market said~~38%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.710

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.629

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay1 note · 8 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Hanworth Villa win at 44%.
2′KICK-OFF Hanworth Villa v Gloucester City
6′Little has changed for our model: Hanworth Villa 44% before kick-off, 44% now. 0–0 · 44–24–32
45′HALF-TIME Hanworth Villa 0–0 Gloucester City
46′⚽ GOAL · 46' Hanworth Villa 0–1 Gloucester City
46′SECOND HALF Hanworth Villa 0–1 Gloucester City
61′⚽ GOAL · 61' Hanworth Villa 1–1 Gloucester City
88′⚽ GOAL · 88' Hanworth Villa 1–2 Gloucester City
90′⚽ GOAL · 90' Hanworth Villa 1–3 Gloucester City
FTFULL TIME Hanworth Villa 1–3 Gloucester City
FTHanworth Villa 1–3 Gloucester City · Hanworth Villa win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Hanworth Villa win44%

Draw23%

Gloucester City win32%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 15:00

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · hanworth villa winPublished 10 Oct 15:19

44% The market38%

Us44%

~~Market~~38%

We make Hanworth Villa a 44% chance to win. The market has them at 38%. We are 6 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.8–1.5.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · hanworth villa win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 43% to 38% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Hanworth Villa win	44%	38%	+6
Draw	23%	26%	−3
Gloucester City win	32%	36%	−3
Over 2.5 goals	62%	58%	+4
Both teams to score	63%	62%	+1
Over 1.5 goals	83%	80%	+3
Over 3.5 goals	40%	39%	+1
Hanworth Villa or draw	68%	64%	+3
Hanworth Villa clean sheet	24%	–	–
Gloucester City clean sheet	18%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 8 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.3%

0123450 4.4 5.8 4.3 2.1 1 7.0 10.3 7.3 3.6 2 6.2 8.8 6.3 3.1 3 3.6 5.1 3.7 4 2.3 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Hanworth Villa down, Gloucester City across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 2,415 Non League Premier - Southern South matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Non League Premier - Southern South matches have gone over 2.5 in 57.6% of games this season, across 99 played.

Head to head

No previous meeting in our records, so this step adds nothing.

Home and away form

Hanworth Villa at home: 2.80 scored, 1.20 conceded a game (last 5). Gloucester City away: 1.67 scored, 3.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.75 goals for Hanworth Villa, 1.47 for Gloucester City. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

0 meetings since 2021

No previous meeting of these two in our records. We say so rather than invent one.

Form · last six in Non League Premier - Southern South

HANWORTH VILLA

WDWLWW4–1 · 0–0 · 4–1 · 2–3 · 2–1 · 2–1

GLOUCESTER CITY

WDLDLD1–0 · 3–3 · 1–2 · 1–1 · 2–5 · 1–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Poole Town	10	+5	21
2	Plymouth Parkway	9	+15	20
3	Uxbridge	9	+11	20
4	Hanworth Villa	9	+9	19
5	Bath City	9	+5	17
6	Frome Town	10	+4	15
7	Chertsey Town	9	+5	14
8	Taunton Town	9	+1	13
9	Chichester City	9	−2	13
10	Evesham United	9	−3	13
11	Berkhamsted	10	−3	13
12	Wimborne Town	8	+6	12
13	Gosport Borough	10	0	12
14	Yate Town	9	−5	12
15	Bracknell Town	9	−7	11
16	Sholing	8	−3	10
17	Basingstoke Town	9	−2	9
18	Hanwell Town	8	−3	7
19	Gloucester City	9	−5	7
20	Chippenham Town	8	−9	7
21	Havant & Wville	9	−7	5
22	Malvern Town	9	−12	5