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Hanwell Town v Chertsey Town

Hanwell Town

1–1Full time

Chertsey Town

Non League Premier - Southern South · TUE 13 OCT

Full timeGraded 13 Oct 22:30

Hanwell Town 1–1 Chertsey Town HANWELL TOWN WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · RIGHT

~~We said Hanwell Town win~~41%

~~The market said~~38%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.850

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.827

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay9 notes · 13 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Hanwell Town win at 41%.
1′Much as we predicted: Hanwell Town was 41% before kick-off and our model makes it 41% now. 0–0 · 41–25–34
1′KICK-OFF Hanwell Town v Chertsey Town
14′⚽ GOAL · 14' Hanwell Town 1–0 Chertsey Town
15′14′ and it is 1–0: J. Esprit on the scoresheet for Hanwell Town. 1–0 · 67–20–14
15′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 15' Hanwell Town win: 41% at kick-off, 67% now
16′We published Hanwell Town at 41%. Our model now makes it 67%. 1–0 · 67–20–14
30′Goals are coming at about the 2.9 we expected. 1–0 · 68–20–11
39′We published Hanwell Town at 41%. Our model now makes it 70%. 1–0 · 70–21–10
44′Chertsey Town find the net on 43′. 1–1. 1–1 · 34–37–29
44′⚽ GOAL · 43' Hanwell Town 1–1 Chertsey Town
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45' Hanwell Town win: 41% at kick-off, 34% now
45′HALF-TIME Hanwell Town 1–1 Chertsey Town
46′SECOND HALF Hanwell Town 1–1 Chertsey Town
47′THE CALL SWINGS · 47' Draw is now our likeliest result at 38% (was Hanwell Town win 33%)
52′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 52' Hanwell Town win: 41% at kick-off, 31% now
58′We said Hanwell Town at 41%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 29%. 1–1 · 29–46–25
59′⚽ GOAL · 14' Hanwell Town 1–1 Chertsey Town · J. Esprit
59′⚽ GOAL · 43' Hanwell Town 1–1 Chertsey Town · C. Lee
67′We said Hanwell Town at 41%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 24%. 1–1 · 24–54–22
90′We said Hanwell Town at 41%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 5%. 1–1 · 5–91–4
90′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 90' Hanwell Town win: 41% at kick-off, 5% now
FTFULL TIME Hanwell Town 1–1 Chertsey Town
FTHanwell Town 1–1 Chertsey Town · Hanwell Town win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: right

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Our analyst’s one-line verdict on how this match goes.

What decides it

The reason that decides itThe fact behind it, in one line.

– –

Where the chances come fromThe figure that shows it, in one line.

– –

What could tip the balanceWhat could change it, in one line.

– –

The AI’s read on this match

The verdict, the three reasons that decide it, what would change it and the players to watch — checked live during the game, with a review after full time. Included with a pass.

See the passes

Pre-match prediction

Published 13 Oct 19:33 · locked at kick-off

Hanwell Town win41%

Draw25%

Chertsey Town win34%

Kick-offTUE 13 OCT · 19:45

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Hanwell Town

Chertsey Town

3Days since last match3

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
10	Chertsey Town	10	+5	15
18	Hanwell Town	9	−2	10

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · hanwell town winFirst published 9 Oct 06:15 · updated 13 Oct 19:33 · locked at kick-off

41% The market38%

Us41%

~~Market~~38%

We make Hanwell Town a 41% chance to win. The market has them at 38%. We are 3 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.5–1.4.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · hanwell town win The market, margin stripped

Published at 40%, 41% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 38% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Hanwell Town win	41%	38%	+3
Draw	25%	26%	−1
Chertsey Town win	34%	36%	−2
Over 2.5 goals	56%	60%	−5
Both teams to score	58%	63%	−5
Over 1.5 goals	79%	81%	−2
Over 3.5 goals	34%	40%	−7
Hanwell Town or draw	66%	64%	+2
Hanwell Town clean sheet	25%	–	–
Chertsey Town clean sheet	22%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.5%

0123450 5.8 7.4 5.2 2.4 1 8.1 11.5 7.8 3.6 2 6.3 8.6 5.9 2.8 3 3.3 4.4 3.0 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Hanwell Town down, Chertsey Town across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 2,426 Non League Premier - Southern South matches up to 13 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Non League Premier - Southern South matches have gone over 2.5 in 59.1% of games this season, across 110 played.

Head to head

4 previous meetings, 2.75 goals a meeting; 3 of 4 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Hanwell Town at home: 1.50 scored, 0.83 conceded a game (last 6). Chertsey Town away: 1.83 scored, 2.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.54 goals for Hanwell Town, 1.39 for Chertsey Town. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2024

~~Goals a meeting~~2.75

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 4

~~Both scored~~3 of 4

~~Last meetings~~CHE 2–1 HAN · HAN 1–2 CHE · CHE 0–2 HAN · HAN 1–2 CHE

Form · last six in Non League Premier - Southern South

HANWELL TOWN

LLLDDW0–1 · 0–2 · 0–1 · 2–2 · 1–1 · 2–1

CHERTSEY TOWN

LLWDLD1–2 · 1–4 · 5–0 · 2–2 · 1–3 · 2–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Poole Town	11	+6	24
2	Uxbridge	10	+12	23
3	Plymouth Parkway	10	+13	20
4	Hanworth Villa	10	+7	19
5	Bath City	10	+4	17
6	Frome Town	11	+4	16
7	Chichester City	10	0	16
8	Berkhamsted	11	0	16
9	Wimborne Town	9	+9	15
10	Chertsey Town	10	+5	15
11	Gosport Borough	11	+1	15
12	Taunton Town	10	0	13
13	Evesham United	10	−4	13
14	Basingstoke Town	10	+1	12
15	Yate Town	10	−8	12
16	Sholing	9	−3	11
17	Bracknell Town	10	−8	11
18	Hanwell Town	9	−2	10
19	Gloucester City	10	−3	10
20	Chippenham Town	9	−9	8
21	Havant & Wville	10	−10	5
22	Malvern Town	10	−15	5