Hanwell Town v Bath City prediction · Non League Premier

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 18:10

Hanwell Town 0–2 Bath City HANWELL TOWN WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Hanwell Town win~~38%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.644

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay8 notes · 9 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Hanwell Town win at 38%.
1′Much as we predicted: Hanwell Town was 38% before kick-off and our model makes it 38% now. 0–0 · 38–28–35
1′KICK-OFF Hanwell Town v Bath City
6′Much as we predicted: Hanwell Town was 38% before kick-off and our model makes it 37% now. 0–0 · 37–29–34
13′A goal for Bath City on 12′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 15–22–64
13′⚽ GOAL · 12' Hanwell Town 0–1 Bath City
13′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 13' Hanwell Town win: 38% at kick-off, 15% now
13′THE CALL SWINGS · 13' Bath City win is now our likeliest result at 64% (was Hanwell Town win 15%)
14′Bath City score on 14′ to make it 0–2. 0–2 · 5–10–85
14′We said Hanwell Town at 38%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 5%. 0–2 · 5–10–85
14′⚽ GOAL · 14' Hanwell Town 0–2 Bath City
14′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 14' Hanwell Town win: 38% at kick-off, 5% now
15′We said Hanwell Town at 38%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 4%. 0–2 · 4–10–86
17′10′: H. Parsons on the scoresheet for Bath City, making it 0–2. 0–2 · 4–10–86
45′HALF-TIME Hanwell Town 0–2 Bath City
46′SECOND HALF Hanwell Town 0–2 Bath City
59′Goals are coming at about the 2.5 we expected. 0–2 · 1–4–95
FTFULL TIME Hanwell Town 0–2 Bath City
FTHanwell Town 0–2 Bath City · Hanwell Town win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with Hanwell Town just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: Hanwell Town 38%, draw 28%, Bath City 35%. Over 2.5 goals 45%, both teams to score 50%.

The AI’s read on Hanwell Town v Bath CityBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Hanwell Town win38%

Draw28%

Bath City win35%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 15:00

RoundMatchday 10

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Hanwell Town

Bath City

4Days since last match4

Last match: 13 Oct · Non League Premier - Southern South

3Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
5	Bath City	11	+6	20
16	Hanwell Town	10	−2	11

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · hanwell town winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · updated 14 Oct 04:39 · locked at kick-off

38% The market–

Us38%

We make Hanwell Town a 38% chance to win. The model expects 1.3–1.2, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 13%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Hanwell Town v Bath City~~1.27 – 1.20

~~Form · last six in Non League Premier - Southern South this season · since 29 Aug~~W1 D3 L2 · W4 D0 L2

~~Table places · points 11 v 20~~16 v 5

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Hanwell Town win

Published at 40%, 38% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Hanwell Town win	38%	–	–
Draw	28%	–	–
Bath City win	35%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	45%	–	–
Both teams to score	50%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	70%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	24%	–	–
Hanwell Town or draw	65%	–	–
Hanwell Town clean sheet	30%	–	–
Bath City clean sheet	29%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.9%

0123450 9.0 10.0 6.1 2.5 1 10.5 12.9 7.6 3.1 2 6.8 7.9 4.8 3 2.9 3.4 2.0 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Hanwell Town down, Bath City across0–5 goals a side shown (99.6% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 2,434 Non League Premier - Southern South matches up to 13 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Non League Premier - Southern South matches have gone over 2.5 in 59.3% of games this season, across 118 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2021/22.

Home and away form

Hanwell Town at home: 1.00 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). Bath City away: 1.60 scored, 0.80 conceded (last 5).

What the model expects

1.27 goals for Hanwell Town, 1.20 for Bath City. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2021/22

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2021/22.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Non League Premier - Southern South this season · since 29 Aug

HANWELL TOWN

LLDDWD0–2 · 0–1 · 2–2 · 1–1 · 2–1 · 1–1

BATH CITY

LWWWLW0–1 · 2–0 · 3–1 · 2–1 · 1–2 · 2–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Poole Town	11	+6	24
2	Plymouth Parkway	11	+14	23
3	Uxbridge	10	+12	23
4	Hanworth Villa	11	+10	22
5	Bath City	11	+6	20
6	Frome Town	12	+6	19
7	Chichester City	11	+1	19
8	Chertsey Town	11	+5	16
9	Berkhamsted	11	0	16
10	Wimborne Town	10	+8	15
11	Gosport Borough	11	+1	15
12	Taunton Town	10	0	13
13	Evesham United	11	−6	13
14	Basingstoke Town	11	−2	12
15	Yate Town	11	−9	12
16	Hanwell Town	10	−2	11
17	Sholing	10	−4	11
18	Bracknell Town	11	−11	11
19	Gloucester City	10	−3	10
20	Havant & Wville	11	−7	8
21	Chippenham Town	10	−11	8
22	Malvern Town	11	−14	8