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Gosport Borough v Basingstoke Town

Gosport Borough

4–0Full time

Basingstoke Town

Non League Premier - Southern South · SAT 17 OCT

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 18:10

Gosport Borough 4–0 Basingstoke Town GOSPORT BOROUGH WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Gosport Borough win~~48%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.408

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay15 notes · 11 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Gosport Borough win at 48%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Gosport Borough 48% before kick-off, 48% now. 0–0 · 48–23–29
1′KICK-OFF Gosport Borough v Basingstoke Town
8′Little has changed for our model: Gosport Borough 48% before kick-off, 47% now. 0–0 · 47–24–29
18′A goal for Gosport Borough on 18′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 71–17–11
18′⚽ GOAL · 18' Gosport Borough 1–0 Basingstoke Town
18′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 18' Gosport Borough win: 48% at kick-off, 71% now
19′We said Gosport Borough at 48% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 71%. 1–0 · 71–17–11
21′M. Fernandes scores for Gosport Borough on 17′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 72–17–11
30′The goal count is tracking the 3.2 we expected. 1–0 · 72–18–10
31′Gosport Borough score on 31′ to make it 2–0. 2–0 · 90–7–3
31′⚽ GOAL · 31' Gosport Borough 2–0 Basingstoke Town
31′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 31' Gosport Borough win: 48% at kick-off, 90% now
32′We said Gosport Borough at 48% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 90%. 2–0 · 90–7–3
34′30′: K. Campbell on the scoresheet for Gosport Borough, making it 2–0. 2–0 · 91–7–2
45′HALF-TIME Gosport Borough 3–0 Basingstoke Town
47′SECOND HALF Gosport Borough 3–0 Basingstoke Town
49′Gosport Borough find the net on 45′. 3–0. 3–0 · 99–1–0
49′⚽ GOAL · 45+4' Gosport Borough 3–0 Basingstoke Town
49′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 45+4' Gosport Borough win: 48% at kick-off, 99% now
50′We said Gosport Borough at 48% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 99%. 3–0 · 99–1–0
65′We said Gosport Borough at 48% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to over 99%. 3–0 · 100–0–0
88′A goal for Gosport Borough on 87′ — 4–0. 4–0 · 100–0–0
88′That is 4, and we only asked for 3.2 across ninety minutes. 4–0 · 100–0–0
88′⚽ GOAL · 87' Gosport Borough 4–0 Basingstoke Town
90′L. Robinson scores for Gosport Borough on 85′ — 4–0. 4–0 · 100–0–0
FTFULL TIME Gosport Borough 4–0 Basingstoke Town
FTGosport Borough 4–0 Basingstoke Town · Gosport Borough win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Gosport Borough are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Gosport Borough 48%, draw 23%, Basingstoke Town 29%. Over 2.5 goals 62%, both teams to score 63%.

The AI’s read on Gosport Borough v Basingstoke TownBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 13 Oct 05:25 · locked at kick-off

Gosport Borough win48%

Draw23%

Basingstoke Town win29%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 15:00

RoundMatchday 18

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Gosport Borough

Basingstoke Town

7Days since last match4

Last match: 10 Oct · Non League Premier - Southern South

Last match: 13 Oct · Non League Premier - Southern South

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
11	Gosport Borough	11	+1	15
14	Basingstoke Town	11	−2	12

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · gosport borough winFirst published 13 Oct 05:25 · updated 14 Oct 04:39 · locked at kick-off

48% The market–

Us48%

We make Gosport Borough a 48% chance to win. The model expects 1.8–1.4, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 10%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Gosport Borough v Basingstoke Town~~1.84 – 1.39

~~Form · last six in Non League Premier - Southern South this season · since 31 Aug~~W2 D2 L2 · W2 D2 L2

~~Table places · points 15 v 12~~11 v 14

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Gosport Borough win

Published at 47%, 48% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Gosport Borough win	48%	–	–
Draw	23%	–	–
Basingstoke Town win	29%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	62%	–	–
Both teams to score	63%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	83%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	40%	–	–
Gosport Borough or draw	71%	–	–
Gosport Borough clean sheet	25%	–	–
Basingstoke Town clean sheet	16%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.2%

0123450 4.4 5.4 3.9 1 7.2 10.2 6.9 3.2 2 6.7 9.1 6.2 2.9 3 4.1 5.6 3.8 4 2.6 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Gosport Borough down, Basingstoke Town across0–5 goals a side shown (98.3% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 2,434 Non League Premier - Southern South matches up to 13 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Non League Premier - Southern South matches have gone over 2.5 in 59.3% of games this season, across 118 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 8 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 3.75 goals a meeting; 6 of 8 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Gosport Borough at home: 1.67 scored, 1.50 conceded a game (last 6). Basingstoke Town away: 1.50 scored, 2.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.84 goals for Gosport Borough, 1.39 for Basingstoke Town. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

8 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~3.75

~~Over 2.5~~6 of 8

~~Both scored~~5 of 8

~~Last meetings~~BAS 1–1 GOS · BAS 0–3 GOS · GOS 3–4 BAS · GOS 2–1 BAS

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Non League Premier - Southern South this season · since 31 Aug

GOSPORT BOROUGH

LWDDLW0–1 · 3–1 · 1–1 · 1–1 · 1–3 · 2–1

BASINGSTOKE TOWN

WDDLWL2–1 · 1–1 · 1–1 · 1–2 · 4–1 · 1–4

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Poole Town	11	+6	24
2	Plymouth Parkway	11	+14	23
3	Uxbridge	10	+12	23
4	Hanworth Villa	11	+10	22
5	Bath City	11	+6	20
6	Frome Town	12	+6	19
7	Chichester City	11	+1	19
8	Chertsey Town	11	+5	16
9	Berkhamsted	11	0	16
10	Wimborne Town	10	+8	15
11	Gosport Borough	11	+1	15
12	Taunton Town	10	0	13
13	Evesham United	11	−6	13
14	Basingstoke Town	11	−2	12
15	Yate Town	11	−9	12
16	Hanwell Town	10	−2	11
17	Sholing	10	−4	11
18	Bracknell Town	11	−11	11
19	Gloucester City	10	−3	10
20	Havant & Wville	11	−7	8
21	Chippenham Town	10	−11	8
22	Malvern Town	11	−14	8