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Frome Town v Sholing

Frome Town

1–1Full time

Sholing

Non League Premier - Southern South · SAT 10 OCT

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 17:33

Frome Town 1–1 Sholing FROME TOWN WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · RIGHT

~~We said Frome Town win~~40%

~~The market said~~45%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.814

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.821

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay2 notes · 6 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Frome Town win at 40%.
3′KICK-OFF Frome Town v Sholing
6′4′ and it is 1–0: G. Dowling on the scoresheet for Frome Town. 1–0 · 67–20–14
6′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 6' Frome Town win: 40% at kick-off, 67% now
26′We published Frome Town at 40%. Our model now makes it 69%. 1–0 · 69–21–11
45′HALF-TIME Frome Town 1–0 Sholing
48′SECOND HALF Frome Town 1–0 Sholing
90′⚽ GOAL · 90' Frome Town 1–1 Sholing
FTFULL TIME Frome Town 1–1 Sholing
FTFrome Town 1–1 Sholing · Frome Town win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: right

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Frome Town win40%

Draw26%

Sholing win34%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 15:00

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · frome town winPublished 10 Oct 15:19

40% The market45%

Us40%

~~Market~~45%

We make Frome Town a 40% chance to win. The market has them at 45%. We are 5 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.4–1.3.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · frome town win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 49% to 45% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Frome Town win	40%	45%	−5
Draw	26%	27%	0
Sholing win	34%	29%	+5
Over 2.5 goals	49%	52%	−3
Both teams to score	53%	56%	−3
Over 1.5 goals	74%	75%	−2
Over 3.5 goals	27%	31%	−4
Frome Town or draw	66%	71%	−5
Frome Town clean sheet	29%	–	–
Sholing clean sheet	26%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 8 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.4%

0123450 7.7 8.8 5.6 2.4 1 9.7 12.4 7.5 3.2 2 6.9 8.3 5.2 2.2 3 3.2 3.9 2.4 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Frome Town down, Sholing across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 2,415 Non League Premier - Southern South matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Non League Premier - Southern South matches have gone over 2.5 in 57.6% of games this season, across 99 played.

Head to head

2 previous meetings, 2.50 goals a meeting; 1 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Frome Town at home: 1.33 scored, 1.67 conceded a game (last 6). Sholing away: 1.00 scored, 0.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.39 goals for Frome Town, 1.25 for Sholing. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2024

~~Goals a meeting~~2.50

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 2

~~Both scored~~1 of 2

~~Last meetings~~FRO 0–3 SHO · SHO 1–1 FRO

Form · last six in Non League Premier - Southern South

FROME TOWN

WWDLDD2–1 · 1–0 · 2–2 · 0–2 · 2–2 · 3–3

SHOLING

DLLWLW0–0 · 2–4 · 1–3 · 1–0 · 1–3 · 2–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Poole Town	10	+5	21
2	Plymouth Parkway	9	+15	20
3	Uxbridge	9	+11	20
4	Hanworth Villa	9	+9	19
5	Bath City	9	+5	17
6	Frome Town	10	+4	15
7	Chertsey Town	9	+5	14
8	Taunton Town	9	+1	13
9	Chichester City	9	−2	13
10	Evesham United	9	−3	13
11	Berkhamsted	10	−3	13
12	Wimborne Town	8	+6	12
13	Gosport Borough	10	0	12
14	Yate Town	9	−5	12
15	Bracknell Town	9	−7	11
16	Sholing	8	−3	10
17	Basingstoke Town	9	−2	9
18	Hanwell Town	8	−3	7
19	Gloucester City	9	−5	7
20	Chippenham Town	8	−9	7
21	Havant & Wville	9	−7	5
22	Malvern Town	9	−12	5