Frome Town v Gloucester City prediction · Non League Premier

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · postponed

Gloucester City are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Frome Town 34%, draw 25%, Gloucester City 41%. Over 2.5 goals 54%, both teams to score 57%.

The AI’s read on Frome Town v Gloucester CityBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 15 Oct 04:33 · postponed, not graded

Frome Town win34%

Draw25%

Gloucester City win41%

Kick-offWED 21 OCT · 19:45

RoundMatchday 14

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Frome Town

Gloucester City

4Days since last match4

Last match: 17 Oct · Non League Premier - Southern South

Last match: 17 Oct · the English FA Cup

3Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
6	Frome Town	13	+4	19
20	Gloucester City	10	−3	10

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · gloucester city winFirst published 15 Oct 04:33 · updated 18 Oct 00:17 · postponed, not graded

41% The market36%

Us41%

~~Market~~36%

We make Gloucester City a 41% chance to win. The market has them at 36%. We are 5 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.4–1.5.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Frome Town v Gloucester City~~1.36 – 1.50

~~Form · last six in Non League Premier - Southern South this season · since 29 Aug~~W1 D3 L2 · W1 D3 L2

~~Table places · points 19 v 10~~6 v 20

~~The market · Gloucester City win~~36% · ours 41%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Gloucester City win The market, margin stripped

Published at 39%, 41% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 36% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Frome Town win	34%	38%	−4
Draw	25%	25%	0
Gloucester City win	41%	36%	+5
Over 2.5 goals	54%	58%	−4
Both teams to score	57%	61%	−4
Over 1.5 goals	78%	79%	−1
Over 3.5 goals	32%	37%	−5
Frome Town or draw	59%	64%	−5
Frome Town clean sheet	23%	–	–
Gloucester City clean sheet	26%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 3 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.6%

0123450 6.2 8.5 6.4 3.3 1 7.7 11.6 8.5 4.3 2 5.3 7.7 5.7 2.9 3 2.5 3.6 2.6 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Frome Town down, Gloucester City across0–5 goals a side shown (99.1% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 2,441 Non League Premier - Southern South matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Non League Premier - Southern South matches have gone over 2.5 in 59.2% of games this season, across 125 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 2 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 1.00 goals a meeting; 0 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Frome Town at home: 1.50 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). Gloucester City away: 2.00 scored, 3.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.36 goals for Frome Town, 1.50 for Gloucester City. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~1.00

~~Over 2.5~~0 of 2

~~Both scored~~0 of 2

~~Last meetings~~FRO 0–0 GLO · GLO 2–0 FRO

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Non League Premier - Southern South this season · since 29 Aug

FROME TOWN

LDDDWL0–2 · 2–2 · 3–3 · 1–1 · 2–0 · 0–2

GLOUCESTER CITY

DLDLDW3–3 · 1–2 · 1–1 · 2–5 · 1–1 · 3–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Poole Town	12	+9	27
2	Plymouth Parkway	11	+14	23
3	Uxbridge	10	+12	23
4	Hanworth Villa	12	+10	23
5	Bath City	12	+8	23
6	Frome Town	13	+4	19
7	Chichester City	12	0	19
8	Gosport Borough	12	+5	18
9	Chertsey Town	11	+5	16
10	Taunton Town	11	+3	16
11	Berkhamsted	11	0	16
12	Wimborne Town	10	+8	15
13	Bracknell Town	12	−10	14
14	Evesham United	12	−9	13
15	Basingstoke Town	12	−6	12
16	Yate Town	11	−9	12
17	Sholing	10	−4	11
18	Hanwell Town	11	−4	11
19	Malvern Town	12	−12	11
20	Gloucester City	10	−3	10
21	Havant & Wville	12	−7	9
22	Chippenham Town	11	−14	8