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Home › Football › Non League Premier - Southern South › Evesham United v Taunton Town

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Evesham United v Taunton Town

Evesham United
1–4Full time
Taunton Town

Non League Premier - Southern South · SAT 17 OCT

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 18:10
Evesham United 1–4 Taunton Town TAUNTON TOWN WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Taunton Town win39%
The market said39%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.575
The market’s Brier score0.555

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay19 notes · 15 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Taunton Town win at 39%.
  2. 1′Little has changed for our model: Taunton Town 39% before kick-off, 39% now. 0–0 · 38–24–39
  3. 1′KICK-OFF Evesham United v Taunton Town
  4. 8′Little has changed for our model: Taunton Town 39% before kick-off, 38% now. 0–0 · 37–25–38
  5. 10′Taunton Town score on 10′ to make it 0–1. 0–1 · 18–20–63
  6. 10′⚽ GOAL · 10' Evesham United 0–1 Taunton Town
  7. 10′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 10' Taunton Town win: 39% at kick-off, 63% now
  8. 11′We said Taunton Town at 39% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 63%. 0–1 · 17–20–63
  9. 13′Evesham United find the net on 13′. 1–1. 1–1 · 37–26–38
  10. 13′⚽ GOAL · 13' Evesham United 1–1 Taunton Town
  11. 13′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 13' Taunton Town win: 39% at kick-off, 38% now
  12. 15′Evesham United level it on 10′ through S. Obieri. 1–1. 1–1 · 37–26–37
  13. 29′A goal for Taunton Town on 29′ — 1–2. 1–2 · 14–21–65
  14. 29′⚽ GOAL · 29' Evesham United 1–2 Taunton Town
  15. 29′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 29' Taunton Town win: 39% at kick-off, 65% now
  16. 30′B. Seymour scores for Taunton Town on 27′ — 1–2. 1–2 · 14–21–65
  17. 30′We said Taunton Town at 39% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 65%. 1–2 · 14–21–65
  18. 39′Taunton Town score on 39′ to make it 1–3. 1–3 · 3–9–88
  19. 39′We said Taunton Town at 39% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 88%. 1–3 · 3–9–88
  20. 39′⚽ GOAL · 39' Evesham United 1–3 Taunton Town
  21. 39′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 39' Taunton Town win: 39% at kick-off, 88% now
  22. 40′That is 4, and we only asked for 3.2 across ninety minutes. 1–3 · 3–9–88
  23. 41′37′: A. Moulden on the scoresheet for Taunton Town, making it 1–3. 1–3 · 3–8–89
  24. 41′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 41' Taunton Town win: 39% at kick-off, 89% now
  25. 45′We said Taunton Town at 39% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 90%. 1–3 · 3–8–90
  26. 45′HALF-TIME Evesham United 1–3 Taunton Town
  27. 46′SECOND HALF Evesham United 1–3 Taunton Town
  28. 64′We said Taunton Town at 39% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 95%. 1–3 · 1–5–95
  29. 74′Taunton Town find the net on 73′. 1–4. 1–4 · 0–0–100
  30. 74′We said Taunton Town at 39% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to over 99%. 1–4 · 0–0–100
  31. 74′5 goals already, more than the 3.2 we expected for the whole match. 1–4 · 0–0–100
  32. 74′⚽ GOAL · 73' Evesham United 1–4 Taunton Town
  33. 74′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 74' Taunton Town win: 39% at kick-off, over 99% now
  34. 80′Taunton Town ahead on 69′ through M. Davies. 1–4. 1–4 · 0–0–100
  35. FTFULL TIME Evesham United 1–4 Taunton Town
  36. FTEvesham United 1–4 Taunton Town · Taunton Town win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass
Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with Taunton Town just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: Evesham United 38%, draw 24%, Taunton Town 39%. Over 2.5 goals 62%, both teams to score 63%.

The AI’s read on Evesham United v Taunton TownBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Evesham United win38%
Draw24%
Taunton Town win39%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 15:00

RoundMatchday 13

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Evesham United

Taunton Town

4Days since last match7

Last match: 13 Oct · Non League Premier - Southern South

Last match: 10 Oct · Non League Premier - Southern South

3Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026/27

Positions before kick-off

#TEAMPGDPTS
12Taunton Town10013
13Evesham United11−613

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · taunton town winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · updated 14 Oct 04:39 · locked at kick-off
39% The market39%
Us39%
Market39%

We make Taunton Town a 39% chance to win. The market has them at 39%. We are level with the market. The model expects 1.6–1.6.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Evesham United v Taunton Town1.60 – 1.62
Form · last six in Non League Premier - Southern South this season · since 29 AugW2 D1 L3 · W2 D1 L3
Table places · points 13 v 1313 v 12
The market · Taunton Town win39% · ours 39%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
35%40%45% 11 OCT 04:0217 OCT 14:07
Our probability · Taunton Town win The market, margin stripped

Published at 37%, 39% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 39% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Evesham United win38%34%+4
Draw24%27%−3
Taunton Town win39%39%0
Over 2.5 goals62%60%+2
Both teams to score63%64%−1
Over 1.5 goals83%80%+3
Over 3.5 goals40%40%0
Evesham United or draw61%61%0
Evesham United clean sheet20%––
Taunton Town clean sheet21%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 5 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.4%
0123450 4.4 6.4 5.3 2.9 1 6.4 10.4 8.1 4.4 2 5.2 8.1 6.4 3.5 3 2.8 4.3 3.5 4 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Evesham United down, Taunton Town across0–5 goals a side shown (98.5% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2021/22
Goals a meeting1.50
Over 2.51 of 2
Both scored0 of 2
Last meetingsTAU 0–0 EVE · EVE 3–0 TAU

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Non League Premier - Southern South this season · since 29 Aug

EVESHAM UNITED

WDWLLL2–1 · 0–0 · 2–0 · 1–3 · 0–1 · 0–2

TAUNTON TOWN

WWLLDL4–3 · 4–1 · 1–3 · 1–3 · 2–2 · 1–2

The table

2026/27
#TEAMPGDPTS
1Poole Town11+624
2Plymouth Parkway11+1423
3Uxbridge10+1223
4Hanworth Villa11+1022
5Bath City11+620
6Frome Town12+619
7Chichester City11+119
8Chertsey Town11+516
9Berkhamsted11016
10Wimborne Town10+815
11Gosport Borough11+115
12Taunton Town10013
13Evesham United11−613
14Basingstoke Town11−212
15Yate Town11−912
16Hanwell Town10−211
17Sholing10−411
18Bracknell Town11−1111
19Gloucester City10−310
20Havant & Wville11−78
21Chippenham Town10−118
22Malvern Town11−148

The competition's standings before kick-off.