Home › Football › Non League Premier - Southern South › Evesham United v Bath City

Evesham United v Bath City

Evesham United

0–2Full time

Bath City

Non League Premier - Southern South · TUE 13 OCT

Full timeGraded 13 Oct 22:30

Evesham United 0–2 Bath City BATH CITY WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Bath City win~~37%

~~The market said~~52%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.595

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.343

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay8 notes · 17 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Bath City win at 37%.
1′Much as we predicted: Bath City was 37% before kick-off and our model makes it 37% now. 0–0 · 36–26–37
1′KICK-OFF Evesham United v Bath City
40′THE CALL SWINGS · 40' Draw is now our likeliest result at 37% (was Bath City win 32%)
42′Evesham United find the net on 41′. 1–0. 1–0 · 69–22–9
42′We said Bath City at 37%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 9%. 1–0 · 69–22–9
42′⚽ GOAL · 41' Evesham United 1–0 Bath City
42′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 42' Bath City win: 37% at kick-off, 9% now
42′THE CALL SWINGS · 42' Evesham United win is now our likeliest result at 69% (was Draw 22%)
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45' Bath City win: 37% at kick-off, 31% now
45′THE CALL SWINGS · 45' Draw is now our likeliest result at 39% (was Evesham United win 30%)
45′HALF-TIME Evesham United 0–0 Bath City
46′SECOND HALF Evesham United 0–0 Bath City
53′Bath City find the net on 53′. 0–1. 0–1 · 6–21–72
53′⚽ GOAL · 53' Evesham United 0–1 Bath City
54′We published Bath City at 37%. Our model now makes it 73%. 0–1 · 6–21–73
54′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 54' Bath City win: 37% at kick-off, 72% now
54′THE CALL SWINGS · 54' Bath City win is now our likeliest result at 72% (was Draw 21%)
58′⚽ GOAL · 53' Evesham United 0–1 Bath City
60′We published Bath City at 37%. Our model now makes it 75%. 0–1 · 5–20–75
63′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 63' Bath City win: 37% at kick-off, 77% now
90′A goal for Bath City on 90′ — 0–2. 0–2 · 0–0–100
90′We published Bath City at 37%. Our model now makes it 100%. 0–2 · 0–0–100
90′⚽ GOAL · 90' Evesham United 0–2 Bath City
90′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 90' Bath City win: 37% at kick-off, 100% now
FTFULL TIME Evesham United 0–2 Bath City
FTEvesham United 0–2 Bath City · Bath City win: right · Under 2.5: right · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Our analyst’s one-line verdict on how this match goes.

What decides it

The reason that decides itThe fact behind it, in one line.

– –

Where the chances come fromThe figure that shows it, in one line.

– –

What could tip the balanceWhat could change it, in one line.

– –

The AI’s read on this match

The verdict, the three reasons that decide it, what would change it and the players to watch — checked live during the game, with a review after full time. Included with a pass.

See the passes

Pre-match prediction

Published 13 Oct 19:33 · locked at kick-off

Evesham United win36%

Draw26%

Bath City win37%

Kick-offTUE 13 OCT · 19:45

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Evesham United

Bath City

3Days since last match3

3Matches in previous 14 days2

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
5	Bath City	10	+4	17
13	Evesham United	10	−4	13

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · bath city winFirst published 9 Oct 06:15 · updated 13 Oct 19:33 · locked at kick-off

37% The market52%

Us37%

~~Market~~52%

We make Bath City a 37% chance to win. The market has them at 52%. We are 15 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.3–1.3.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · bath city win The market, margin stripped

Published at 39%, 37% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 52% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Evesham United win	36%	23%	+13
Draw	26%	25%	+2
Bath City win	37%	52%	−15
Over 2.5 goals	49%	53%	−4
Both teams to score	53%	55%	−2
Over 1.5 goals	74%	75%	−1
Over 3.5 goals	27%	33%	−5
Evesham United or draw	63%	48%	+15
Evesham United clean sheet	27%	–	–
Bath City clean sheet	27%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.4%

0123450 7.6 9.3 6.3 2.8 1 9.2 12.4 8.0 3.6 2 6.1 7.9 5.2 2.4 3 2.7 3.5 2.3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Evesham United down, Bath City across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 2,426 Non League Premier - Southern South matches up to 13 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Non League Premier - Southern South matches have gone over 2.5 in 59.1% of games this season, across 110 played.

Head to head

No previous meeting between these two, so this step adds nothing.

Home and away form

Evesham United at home: 1.17 scored, 1.67 conceded a game (last 6). Bath City away: 1.50 scored, 1.00 conceded (last 4).

What the model expects

1.31 goals for Evesham United, 1.33 for Bath City. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

0 meetings since 2021

No meetings between these two in Non League Premier - Southern South since 2021. Cup ties and meetings in other competitions are not counted here.

Form · last six in Non League Premier - Southern South

EVESHAM UNITED

LWDWLL1–3 · 2–1 · 0–0 · 2–0 · 1–3 · 0–1

BATH CITY

LLWWWL1–2 · 0–1 · 2–0 · 3–1 · 2–1 · 1–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Poole Town	11	+6	24
2	Uxbridge	10	+12	23
3	Plymouth Parkway	10	+13	20
4	Hanworth Villa	10	+7	19
5	Bath City	10	+4	17
6	Frome Town	11	+4	16
7	Chichester City	10	0	16
8	Berkhamsted	11	0	16
9	Wimborne Town	9	+9	15
10	Chertsey Town	10	+5	15
11	Gosport Borough	11	+1	15
12	Taunton Town	10	0	13
13	Evesham United	10	−4	13
14	Basingstoke Town	10	+1	12
15	Yate Town	10	−8	12
16	Sholing	9	−3	11
17	Bracknell Town	10	−8	11
18	Hanwell Town	9	−2	10
19	Gloucester City	10	−3	10
20	Chippenham Town	9	−9	8
21	Havant & Wville	10	−10	5
22	Malvern Town	10	−15	5