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Chippenham Town v Poole Town

Chippenham Town

1–4Full time

Poole Town

Non League Premier - Southern South · SAT 17 OCT

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 18:10

Chippenham Town 1–4 Poole Town POOLE TOWN WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Poole Town win~~48%

~~The market said~~50%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.405

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.376

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay17 notes · 12 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Poole Town win at 48%.
1′Much as we predicted: Poole Town was 48% before kick-off and our model makes it 48% now. 0–0 · 28–24–48
1′KICK-OFF Chippenham Town v Poole Town
6′Much as we predicted: Poole Town was 48% before kick-off and our model makes it 47% now. 0–0 · 28–25–47
17′A goal for Poole Town on 17′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 10–17–73
17′⚽ GOAL · 17' Chippenham Town 0–1 Poole Town
17′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 17' Poole Town win: 48% at kick-off, 73% now
18′We published Poole Town at 48%. Our model now makes it 73%. 0–1 · 10–17–73
19′B. Goodship scores for Poole Town on 16′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 10–17–73
31′Goals are coming at about the 2.9 we expected. 0–1 · 8–18–74
39′We published Poole Town at 48%. Our model now makes it 75%. 0–1 · 7–18–75
45′HALF-TIME Chippenham Town 0–2 Poole Town
46′SECOND HALF Chippenham Town 0–2 Poole Town
47′Poole Town score on 45′ to make it 0–2. 0–2 · 1–5–94
47′⚽ GOAL · 45+2' Chippenham Town 0–2 Poole Town
47′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 45+2' Poole Town win: 48% at kick-off, 94% now
48′We published Poole Town at 48%. Our model now makes it 94%. 0–2 · 1–5–94
51′We published Poole Town at 48%. Our model now makes it 95%. 0–2 · 1–5–95
55′Poole Town find the net on 55′. 0–3. 0–3 · 0–1–99
55′That is 3, and we only asked for 2.9 across ninety minutes. 0–3 · 0–1–99
55′⚽ GOAL · 55' Chippenham Town 0–3 Poole Town
55′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 55' Poole Town win: 48% at kick-off, 99% now
61′We published Poole Town at 48%. Our model now makes it over 99%. 0–3 · 0–0–100
72′A goal for Poole Town on 71′ — 0–4. 0–4 · 0–0–100
72′4 goals already, more than the 2.9 we expected for the whole match. 0–4 · 0–0–100
72′⚽ GOAL · 71' Chippenham Town 0–4 Poole Town
90′Chippenham Town score on 90′ to make it 1–4. 1–4 · 0–0–100
90′⚽ GOAL · 90+1' Chippenham Town 1–4 Poole Town
91′That is 5, and we only asked for 2.9 across ninety minutes. 1–4 · 0–0–100
FTFULL TIME Chippenham Town 1–4 Poole Town
FTChippenham Town 1–4 Poole Town · Poole Town win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Poole Town are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Chippenham Town 28%, draw 24%, Poole Town 48%. Over 2.5 goals 55%, both teams to score 57%.

The AI’s read on Chippenham Town v Poole TownBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Chippenham Town win28%

Draw24%

Poole Town win48%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 15:00

RoundMatchday 13

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Chippenham Town

Poole Town

4Days since last match7

Last match: 13 Oct · Non League Premier - Southern South

Last match: 10 Oct · Non League Premier - Southern South

3Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · poole town winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · updated 14 Oct 04:39 · locked at kick-off

48% The market50%

Us48%

~~Market~~50%

We make Poole Town a 48% chance to win. The market has them at 50%. We are within 2 points of the market. The model expects 1.2–1.7.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Chippenham Town v Poole Town~~1.22 – 1.69

~~Form · last six in Non League Premier - Southern South this season · since 29 Aug~~W1 D1 L4 · W5 D0 L1

~~Table places · points 8 v 24~~21 v 1

~~The market · Poole Town win~~50% · ours 48%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Poole Town win The market, margin stripped

Published at 46%, 48% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 50% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Chippenham Town win	28%	24%	+4
Draw	24%	26%	−2
Poole Town win	48%	50%	−2
Over 2.5 goals	55%	53%	+2
Both teams to score	57%	56%	+1
Over 1.5 goals	78%	76%	+2
Over 3.5 goals	33%	32%	+1
Chippenham Town or draw	52%	50%	+2
Chippenham Town clean sheet	19%	–	–
Poole Town clean sheet	30%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 5 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.3%

0123450 5.9 9.1 7.7 4.4 1 6.5 11.3 9.2 5.2 2.3 2 4.1 6.7 5.6 3.2 3 2.8 2.3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Chippenham Town down, Poole Town across0–5 goals a side shown (98.8% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 2,434 Non League Premier - Southern South matches up to 13 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Non League Premier - Southern South matches have gone over 2.5 in 59.3% of games this season, across 118 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 2 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 1.50 goals a meeting; 0 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Chippenham Town at home: 1.25 scored, 1.75 conceded a game (last 4). Poole Town away: 2.00 scored, 1.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.22 goals for Chippenham Town, 1.69 for Poole Town. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~1.50

~~Over 2.5~~0 of 2

~~Both scored~~1 of 2

~~Last meetings~~CHI 1–0 POO · POO 1–1 CHI

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Non League Premier - Southern South this season · since 29 Aug

CHIPPENHAM TOWN

LWLLDL1–2 · 2–1 · 0–2 · 0–2 · 2–2 · 0–2

POOLE TOWN

LWWWWW0–2 · 1–0 · 3–1 · 3–1 · 3–1 · 1–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Poole Town	11	+6	24
2	Plymouth Parkway	11	+14	23
3	Uxbridge	10	+12	23
4	Hanworth Villa	11	+10	22
5	Bath City	11	+6	20
6	Frome Town	12	+6	19
7	Chichester City	11	+1	19
8	Chertsey Town	11	+5	16
9	Berkhamsted	11	0	16
10	Wimborne Town	10	+8	15
11	Gosport Borough	11	+1	15
12	Taunton Town	10	0	13
13	Evesham United	11	−6	13
14	Basingstoke Town	11	−2	12
15	Yate Town	11	−9	12
16	Hanwell Town	10	−2	11
17	Sholing	10	−4	11
18	Bracknell Town	11	−11	11
19	Gloucester City	10	−3	10
20	Havant & Wville	11	−7	8
21	Chippenham Town	10	−11	8
22	Malvern Town	11	−14	8