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Chippenham Town v Frome Town

Chippenham Town

0–2Full time

Frome Town

Non League Premier - Southern South · TUE 13 OCT

Full timeGraded 13 Oct 22:30

Chippenham Town 0–2 Frome Town CHIPPENHAM TOWN WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Chippenham Town win~~38%

~~The market said~~33%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.619

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.534

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay7 notes · 10 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Chippenham Town win at 38%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Chippenham Town 38% before kick-off, 38% now. 0–0 · 38–26–36
1′KICK-OFF Chippenham Town v Frome Town
40′THE CALL SWINGS · 40' Draw is now our likeliest result at 37% (was Chippenham Town win 32%)
45′HALF-TIME Chippenham Town 0–0 Frome Town
46′SECOND HALF Chippenham Town 0–0 Frome Town
54′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 54' Chippenham Town win: 38% at kick-off, 28% now
56′Goalless on 56′ when we expected about 2.7 goals — that one is getting away from us. 0–0 · 28–46–27
59′We said Chippenham Town at 38%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 26%. 0–0 · 26–48–25
61′⚽ GOAL · 61' Chippenham Town 0–1 Frome Town
62′61′ and it is 0–1: Frome Town have scored. 0–1 · 5–20–75
62′We said Chippenham Town at 38%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 5%. 0–1 · 5–20–75
62′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 62' Chippenham Town win: 38% at kick-off, 5% now
62′THE CALL SWINGS · 62' Frome Town win is now our likeliest result at 75% (was Draw 20%)
64′We said Chippenham Town at 38%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 4%. 0–1 · 4–20–76
70′⚽ GOAL · 69' Chippenham Town 0–2 Frome Town
90′Frome Town ahead on 69′ through Z. Drew. 0–2. 0–2 · 0–0–100
FTFULL TIME Chippenham Town 0–2 Frome Town
FTChippenham Town 0–2 Frome Town · Chippenham Town win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Our analyst’s one-line verdict on how this match goes.

What decides it

The reason that decides itThe fact behind it, in one line.

– –

Where the chances come fromThe figure that shows it, in one line.

– –

What could tip the balanceWhat could change it, in one line.

– –

The AI’s read on this match

The verdict, the three reasons that decide it, what would change it and the players to watch — checked live during the game, with a review after full time. Included with a pass.

See the passes

Pre-match prediction

Published 13 Oct 19:33 · locked at kick-off

Chippenham Town win38%

Draw26%

Frome Town win36%

Kick-offTUE 13 OCT · 19:45

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Chippenham Town

Frome Town

3Days since last match3

2Matches in previous 14 days3

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
6	Frome Town	11	+4	16
20	Chippenham Town	9	−9	8

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · chippenham town winFirst published 9 Oct 06:15 · updated 13 Oct 19:33 · locked at kick-off

38% The market33%

Us38%

~~Market~~33%

We make Chippenham Town a 38% chance to win. The market has them at 33%. We are 5 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.4–1.3.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · chippenham town win The market, margin stripped

Published at 37%, 38% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 33% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Chippenham Town win	38%	33%	+5
Draw	26%	27%	−1
Frome Town win	36%	40%	−4
Over 2.5 goals	51%	55%	−4
Both teams to score	55%	59%	−5
Over 1.5 goals	75%	77%	−2
Over 3.5 goals	29%	35%	−6
Chippenham Town or draw	64%	60%	+4
Chippenham Town clean sheet	27%	–	–
Frome Town clean sheet	26%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.1%

0123450 7.1 8.7 5.9 2.7 1 9.0 12.1 7.9 3.6 2 6.3 8.1 5.4 2.4 3 2.9 3.8 2.5 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Chippenham Town down, Frome Town across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 2,426 Non League Premier - Southern South matches up to 13 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Non League Premier - Southern South matches have gone over 2.5 in 59.1% of games this season, across 110 played.

Head to head

No previous meeting between these two, so this step adds nothing.

Home and away form

Chippenham Town at home: 1.67 scored, 1.67 conceded a game (last 3). Frome Town away: 2.00 scored, 1.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.38 goals for Chippenham Town, 1.34 for Frome Town. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

0 meetings since 2021

No meetings between these two in Non League Premier - Southern South since 2021. Cup ties and meetings in other competitions are not counted here.

Form · last six in Non League Premier - Southern South

CHIPPENHAM TOWN

LLWLLD0–4 · 1–2 · 2–1 · 0–2 · 0–2 · 2–2

FROME TOWN

WDLDDD1–0 · 2–2 · 0–2 · 2–2 · 3–3 · 1–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Poole Town	11	+6	24
2	Uxbridge	10	+12	23
3	Plymouth Parkway	10	+13	20
4	Hanworth Villa	10	+7	19
5	Bath City	10	+4	17
6	Frome Town	11	+4	16
7	Chichester City	10	0	16
8	Berkhamsted	11	0	16
9	Wimborne Town	9	+9	15
10	Chertsey Town	10	+5	15
11	Gosport Borough	11	+1	15
12	Taunton Town	10	0	13
13	Evesham United	10	−4	13
14	Basingstoke Town	10	+1	12
15	Yate Town	10	−8	12
16	Sholing	9	−3	11
17	Bracknell Town	10	−8	11
18	Hanwell Town	9	−2	10
19	Gloucester City	10	−3	10
20	Chippenham Town	9	−9	8
21	Havant & Wville	10	−10	5
22	Malvern Town	10	−15	5