Home › Football › Non League Premier - Southern South › Chichester City v Plymouth Parkway

Chichester City v Plymouth Parkway

Chichester City

3–1Full time

Plymouth Parkway

Non League Premier - Southern South · SAT 10 OCT

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 17:33

Chichester City 3–1 Plymouth Parkway CHICHESTER CITY WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Chichester City win~~41%

~~The market said~~35%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.531

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.638

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay1 note · 8 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Chichester City win at 41%.
3′KICK-OFF Chichester City v Plymouth Parkway
6′Little has changed for our model: Chichester City 41% before kick-off, 41% now. 0–0 · 41–23–36
36′⚽ GOAL · 35' Chichester City 0–1 Plymouth Parkway
42′⚽ GOAL · 40' Chichester City 1–1 Plymouth Parkway
45′HALF-TIME Chichester City 1–1 Plymouth Parkway
47′SECOND HALF Chichester City 1–1 Plymouth Parkway
59′⚽ GOAL · 59' Chichester City 2–1 Plymouth Parkway
70′⚽ GOAL · 70' Chichester City 3–1 Plymouth Parkway
FTFULL TIME Chichester City 3–1 Plymouth Parkway
FTChichester City 3–1 Plymouth Parkway · Chichester City win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Chichester City win41%

Draw22%

Plymouth Parkway win37%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 15:00

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · chichester city winPublished 10 Oct 15:19

41% The market35%

Us41%

~~Market~~35%

We make Chichester City a 41% chance to win. The market has them at 35%. We are 6 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.8–1.7.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · chichester city win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 30% to 35% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Chichester City win	41%	35%	+6
Draw	22%	26%	−4
Plymouth Parkway win	37%	39%	−2
Over 2.5 goals	67%	58%	+9
Both teams to score	67%	62%	+5
Over 1.5 goals	86%	80%	+6
Over 3.5 goals	46%	38%	+7
Chichester City or draw	63%	61%	+2
Chichester City clean sheet	19%	–	–
Plymouth Parkway clean sheet	17%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 8 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 9.4%

0123450 3.5 5.2 4.4 2.5 1 5.5 9.4 7.6 4.3 2 5.1 8.2 6.7 3.8 3 3.0 4.9 4.0 2.3 4 2.2 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Chichester City down, Plymouth Parkway across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 2,415 Non League Premier - Southern South matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Non League Premier - Southern South matches have gone over 2.5 in 57.6% of games this season, across 99 played.

Head to head

No previous meeting in our records, so this step adds nothing.

Home and away form

Chichester City at home: 2.50 scored, 1.50 conceded a game (last 4). Plymouth Parkway away: 2.67 scored, 1.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.79 goals for Chichester City, 1.68 for Plymouth Parkway. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

0 meetings since 2021

No previous meeting of these two in our records. We say so rather than invent one.

Form · last six in Non League Premier - Southern South

CHICHESTER CITY

WWWLDL4–0 · 2–0 · 3–2 · 0–5 · 2–2 · 1–2

PLYMOUTH PARKWAY

WWWWWD2–1 · 3–1 · 2–0 · 3–1 · 2–0 · 1–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Poole Town	10	+5	21
2	Plymouth Parkway	9	+15	20
3	Uxbridge	9	+11	20
4	Hanworth Villa	9	+9	19
5	Bath City	9	+5	17
6	Frome Town	10	+4	15
7	Chertsey Town	9	+5	14
8	Taunton Town	9	+1	13
9	Chichester City	9	−2	13
10	Evesham United	9	−3	13
11	Berkhamsted	10	−3	13
12	Wimborne Town	8	+6	12
13	Gosport Borough	10	0	12
14	Yate Town	9	−5	12
15	Bracknell Town	9	−7	11
16	Sholing	8	−3	10
17	Basingstoke Town	9	−2	9
18	Hanwell Town	8	−3	7
19	Gloucester City	9	−5	7
20	Chippenham Town	8	−9	7
21	Havant & Wville	9	−7	5
22	Malvern Town	9	−12	5