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Chichester City v Berkhamsted

Chichester City

3–1Full time

Berkhamsted

Non League Premier - Southern South · TUE 20 OCT

Full timeGraded 20 Oct 22:30

Chichester City 3–1 Berkhamsted CHICHESTER CITY WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Chichester City win~~40%

~~The market said~~39%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.548

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.569

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay13 notes · 12 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Chichester City win at 40%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Chichester City 40% before kick-off, 40% now. 0–0 · 40–25–35
1′KICK-OFF Chichester City v Berkhamsted
4′Chichester City score on 4′ to make it 1–0. 1–0 · 65–19–16
4′⚽ GOAL · 4' Chichester City 1–0 Berkhamsted
4′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 4' Chichester City win: 40% at kick-off, 65% now
5′We said Chichester City at 40% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 65%. 1–0 · 65–19–15
23′Chichester City find the net on 22′. 2–0. 2–0 · 87–9–4
23′⚽ GOAL · 22' Chichester City 2–0 Berkhamsted
23′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 23' Chichester City win: 40% at kick-off, 87% now
24′We said Chichester City at 40% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 87%. 2–0 · 87–9–4
36′We said Chichester City at 40% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 90%. 2–0 · 90–8–3
36′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 36' Chichester City win: 40% at kick-off, 90% now
45′HALF-TIME Chichester City 2–0 Berkhamsted
46′SECOND HALF Chichester City 2–0 Berkhamsted
51′The goal count is tracking the 2.8 we expected. 2–0 · 93–6–1
59′We said Chichester City at 40% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 95%. 2–0 · 95–5–1
66′A goal for Chichester City on 66′ — 3–0. 3–0 · 100–0–0
66′⚽ GOAL · 66' Chichester City 3–0 Berkhamsted
66′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 66' Chichester City win: 40% at kick-off, over 99% now
67′We said Chichester City at 40% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to over 99%. 3–0 · 100–0–0
67′3 goals already, more than the 2.8 we expected for the whole match. 3–0 · 100–0–0
70′Berkhamsted score on 70′ to make it 3–1. 3–1 · 97–3–0
70′That is 4, and we only asked for 2.8 across ninety minutes. 3–1 · 97–3–0
70′⚽ GOAL · 70' Chichester City 3–1 Berkhamsted
FTFULL TIME Chichester City 3–1 Berkhamsted
FTChichester City 3–1 Berkhamsted · Chichester City win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Chichester City are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Chichester City 40%, draw 25%, Berkhamsted 35%. Over 2.5 goals 54%, both teams to score 57%.

The AI’s read on Chichester City v BerkhamstedBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 14 Oct 04:28 · locked at kick-off

Chichester City win40%

Draw25%

Berkhamsted win35%

Kick-offTUE 20 OCT · 19:45

RoundMatchday 14

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Chichester City

Berkhamsted

3Days since last match3

Last match: 17 Oct · Non League Premier - Southern South

Last match: 17 Oct · the English FA Cup

3Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
7	Chichester City	12	0	19
11	Berkhamsted	11	0	16

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · chichester city winFirst published 14 Oct 04:28 · updated 18 Oct 00:17 · locked at kick-off

40% The market39%

Us40%

~~Market~~39%

We make Chichester City a 40% chance to win. The market has them at 39%. We are within 1 point of the market. The model expects 1.5–1.4.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Chichester City v Berkhamsted~~1.48 – 1.37

~~Form · last six in Non League Premier - Southern South this season · since 31 Aug~~W2 D1 L3 · W3 D1 L2

~~Table places · points 19 v 16~~7 v 11

~~The market · Chichester City win~~39% · ours 40%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Chichester City win The market, margin stripped

Published at 41%, 40% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 39% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Chichester City win	40%	39%	+1
Draw	25%	28%	−3
Berkhamsted win	35%	34%	+1
Over 2.5 goals	54%	52%	+2
Both teams to score	57%	57%	0
Over 1.5 goals	77%	75%	+2
Over 3.5 goals	32%	31%	+1
Chichester City or draw	65%	66%	−1
Chichester City clean sheet	26%	–	–
Berkhamsted clean sheet	23%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.7%

0123450 6.3 7.9 5.5 2.5 1 8.5 11.7 7.8 3.6 2 6.3 8.4 5.7 2.6 3 3.2 4.2 2.9 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Chichester City down, Berkhamsted across0–5 goals a side shown (99.1% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 2,441 Non League Premier - Southern South matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Non League Premier - Southern South matches have gone over 2.5 in 59.2% of games this season, across 125 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2022/23.

Home and away form

Chichester City at home: 2.60 scored, 1.40 conceded a game (last 5). Berkhamsted away: 1.17 scored, 1.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.48 goals for Chichester City, 1.37 for Berkhamsted. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2022/23

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2022/23.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Non League Premier - Southern South this season · since 31 Aug

CHICHESTER CITY

LDLWWL0–5 · 2–2 · 1–2 · 3–1 · 3–2 · 0–1

BERKHAMSTED

WDWLLW1–0 · 0–0 · 1–0 · 1–2 · 0–2 · 3–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Poole Town	12	+9	27
2	Plymouth Parkway	11	+14	23
3	Uxbridge	10	+12	23
4	Hanworth Villa	12	+10	23
5	Bath City	12	+8	23
6	Frome Town	13	+4	19
7	Chichester City	12	0	19
8	Gosport Borough	12	+5	18
9	Chertsey Town	11	+5	16
10	Taunton Town	11	+3	16
11	Berkhamsted	11	0	16
12	Wimborne Town	10	+8	15
13	Bracknell Town	12	−10	14
14	Evesham United	12	−9	13
15	Basingstoke Town	12	−6	12
16	Yate Town	11	−9	12
17	Sholing	10	−4	11
18	Hanwell Town	11	−4	11
19	Malvern Town	12	−12	11
20	Gloucester City	10	−3	10
21	Havant & Wville	12	−7	9
22	Chippenham Town	11	−14	8