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Chertsey Town v Evesham United

Chertsey Town

2–0Full time

Evesham United

Non League Premier - Southern South · TUE 20 OCT

Full timeGraded 20 Oct 22:30

Chertsey Town 2–0 Evesham United CHERTSEY TOWN WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Chertsey Town win~~56%

~~The market said~~60%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.293

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.237

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay9 notes · 8 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Chertsey Town win at 56%.
1′Much as we predicted: Chertsey Town was 56% before kick-off and our model makes it 56% now. 0–0 · 56–22–22
1′KICK-OFF Chertsey Town v Evesham United
19′A goal for Chertsey Town on 19′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 78–15–8
19′We published Chertsey Town at 56%. Our model now makes it 78%. 1–0 · 78–15–8
19′⚽ GOAL · 19' Chertsey Town 1–0 Evesham United
19′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 19' Chertsey Town win: 56% at kick-off, 78% now
20′D. Harrison scores for Chertsey Town on 18′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 78–15–8
30′Goals are coming at about the 3.2 we expected. 1–0 · 78–15–7
45′HALF-TIME Chertsey Town 1–0 Evesham United
46′SECOND HALF Chertsey Town 1–0 Evesham United
52′We published Chertsey Town at 56%. Our model now makes it 80%. 1–0 · 80–16–5
54′Chertsey Town score on 54′ to make it 2–0. 2–0 · 96–4–1
54′⚽ GOAL · 54' Chertsey Town 2–0 Evesham United
54′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 54' Chertsey Town win: 56% at kick-off, 96% now
55′We published Chertsey Town at 56%. Our model now makes it 96%. 2–0 · 96–3–1
82′We published Chertsey Town at 56%. Our model now makes it over 99%. 2–0 · 100–0–0
FTFULL TIME Chertsey Town 2–0 Evesham United
FTChertsey Town 2–0 Evesham United · Chertsey Town win: right · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Chertsey Town are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Chertsey Town 56%, draw 22%, Evesham United 22%. Over 2.5 goals 61%, both teams to score 59%.

The AI’s read on Chertsey Town v Evesham UnitedBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 14 Oct 04:28 · locked at kick-off

Chertsey Town win56%

Draw22%

Evesham United win22%

Kick-offTUE 20 OCT · 19:45

RoundMatchday 14

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Chertsey Town

Evesham United

3Days since last match3

Last match: 17 Oct · the English FA Cup

Last match: 17 Oct · Non League Premier - Southern South

3Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
9	Chertsey Town	11	+5	16
14	Evesham United	12	−9	13

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · chertsey town winFirst published 14 Oct 04:28 · updated 18 Oct 00:17 · locked at kick-off

56% The market60%

Us56%

~~Market~~60%

We make Chertsey Town a 56% chance to win. The market has them at 60%. We are 4 points less confident than the market. The model expects 2.0–1.2.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Chertsey Town v Evesham United~~2.00 – 1.18

~~Form · last six in Non League Premier - Southern South this season · since 31 Aug~~W1 D3 L2 · W1 D1 L4

~~Table places · points 16 v 13~~9 v 14

~~The market · Chertsey Town win~~60% · ours 56%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Chertsey Town win The market, margin stripped

Published at 54%, 56% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 60% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Chertsey Town win	56%	60%	−4
Draw	22%	20%	+2
Evesham United win	22%	19%	+3
Over 2.5 goals	61%	62%	−1
Both teams to score	59%	59%	0
Over 1.5 goals	82%	82%	0
Over 3.5 goals	39%	41%	−2
Chertsey Town or draw	78%	81%	−3
Chertsey Town clean sheet	31%	–	–
Evesham United clean sheet	14%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 9.9%

0123450 4.6 4.9 3.0 1 8.3 9.9 5.7 2.3 2 8.2 9.5 5.6 2.2 3 5.5 6.3 3.7 4 2.8 3.2 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Chertsey Town down, Evesham United across0–5 goals a side shown (97.9% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 2,441 Non League Premier - Southern South matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Non League Premier - Southern South matches have gone over 2.5 in 59.2% of games this season, across 125 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 2 previous meetings since 2020/21 in every competition we cover, 3.00 goals a meeting; 1 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Chertsey Town at home: 2.33 scored, 1.50 conceded a game (last 6). Evesham United away: 1.33 scored, 1.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.00 goals for Chertsey Town, 1.18 for Evesham United. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2020/21

~~Goals a meeting~~3.00

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 2

~~Both scored~~1 of 2

~~Last meetings~~EVE 1–1 CHE · CHE 4–0 EVE

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Non League Premier - Southern South this season · since 31 Aug

CHERTSEY TOWN

LWDLDD1–4 · 5–0 · 2–2 · 1–3 · 2–2 · 1–1

EVESHAM UNITED

DWLLLL0–0 · 2–0 · 1–3 · 0–1 · 0–2 · 1–4

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Poole Town	12	+9	27
2	Plymouth Parkway	11	+14	23
3	Uxbridge	10	+12	23
4	Hanworth Villa	12	+10	23
5	Bath City	12	+8	23
6	Frome Town	13	+4	19
7	Chichester City	12	0	19
8	Gosport Borough	12	+5	18
9	Chertsey Town	11	+5	16
10	Taunton Town	11	+3	16
11	Berkhamsted	11	0	16
12	Wimborne Town	10	+8	15
13	Bracknell Town	12	−10	14
14	Evesham United	12	−9	13
15	Basingstoke Town	12	−6	12
16	Yate Town	11	−9	12
17	Sholing	10	−4	11
18	Hanwell Town	11	−4	11
19	Malvern Town	12	−12	11
20	Gloucester City	10	−3	10
21	Havant & Wville	12	−7	9
22	Chippenham Town	11	−14	8