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Chertsey Town v Chippenham Town

Chertsey Town

2–2Full time

Chippenham Town

Non League Premier - Southern South · SAT 10 OCT

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 17:33

Chertsey Town 2–2 Chippenham Town CHERTSEY TOWN WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG2–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Chertsey Town win~~57%

~~The market said~~59%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.993

~~The market’s Brier score~~1.002

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay1 note · 8 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Chertsey Town win at 57%.
2′KICK-OFF Chertsey Town v Chippenham Town
6′Much as we predicted: Chertsey Town was 57% before kick-off and our model makes it 56% now. 0–0 · 56–22–22
39′⚽ GOAL · 38' Chertsey Town 0–1 Chippenham Town
45′HALF-TIME Chertsey Town 0–1 Chippenham Town
47′SECOND HALF Chertsey Town 0–1 Chippenham Town
50′⚽ GOAL · 50' Chertsey Town 0–2 Chippenham Town
56′⚽ GOAL · 55' Chertsey Town 1–2 Chippenham Town
73′⚽ GOAL · 72' Chertsey Town 2–2 Chippenham Town
FTFULL TIME Chertsey Town 2–2 Chippenham Town
FTChertsey Town 2–2 Chippenham Town · Chertsey Town win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 2–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Chertsey Town win57%

Draw21%

Chippenham Town win22%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 15:00

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · chertsey town winPublished 10 Oct 15:19

57% The market59%

Us57%

~~Market~~59%

We make Chertsey Town a 57% chance to win. The market has them at 59%. We are within 2 points of the market. The model expects 2.1–1.2.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · chertsey town win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 55% to 59% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Chertsey Town win	57%	59%	−2
Draw	21%	22%	0
Chippenham Town win	22%	19%	+3
Over 2.5 goals	64%	64%	0
Both teams to score	61%	61%	0
Over 1.5 goals	84%	83%	+1
Over 3.5 goals	42%	44%	−1
Chertsey Town or draw	78%	81%	−3
Chertsey Town clean sheet	30%	–	–
Chippenham Town clean sheet	13%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 8 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–1 at 9.4%

0123450 4.0 4.4 2.8 1 7.5 9.4 5.6 2.3 2 7.9 9.4 5.7 2.4 3 5.5 6.5 4.0 4 2.9 3.5 2.1 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Chertsey Town down, Chippenham Town across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 2,415 Non League Premier - Southern South matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Non League Premier - Southern South matches have gone over 2.5 in 57.6% of games this season, across 99 played.

Head to head

No previous meeting in our records, so this step adds nothing.

Home and away form

Chertsey Town at home: 2.17 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). Chippenham Town away: 0.40 scored, 2.20 conceded (last 5).

What the model expects

2.10 goals for Chertsey Town, 1.23 for Chippenham Town. Most likely score 2–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

0 meetings since 2021

No previous meeting of these two in our records. We say so rather than invent one.

Form · last six in Non League Premier - Southern South

CHERTSEY TOWN

WLLWDL4–2 · 1–2 · 1–4 · 5–0 · 2–2 · 1–3

CHIPPENHAM TOWN

WLLWLL3–2 · 0–4 · 1–2 · 2–1 · 0–2 · 0–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Poole Town	10	+5	21
2	Plymouth Parkway	9	+15	20
3	Uxbridge	9	+11	20
4	Hanworth Villa	9	+9	19
5	Bath City	9	+5	17
6	Frome Town	10	+4	15
7	Chertsey Town	9	+5	14
8	Taunton Town	9	+1	13
9	Chichester City	9	−2	13
10	Evesham United	9	−3	13
11	Berkhamsted	10	−3	13
12	Wimborne Town	8	+6	12
13	Gosport Borough	10	0	12
14	Yate Town	9	−5	12
15	Bracknell Town	9	−7	11
16	Sholing	8	−3	10
17	Basingstoke Town	9	−2	9
18	Hanwell Town	8	−3	7
19	Gloucester City	9	−5	7
20	Chippenham Town	8	−9	7
21	Havant & Wville	9	−7	5
22	Malvern Town	9	−12	5