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Bracknell Town v Hanworth Villa

Bracknell Town

1–4Full time

Hanworth Villa

Non League Premier - Southern South · TUE 13 OCT

Full timeGraded 13 Oct 22:30

Bracknell Town 1–4 Hanworth Villa BRACKNELL TOWN WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Bracknell Town win~~38%

~~The market said~~32%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.588

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.507

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay11 notes · 19 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Bracknell Town win at 38%.
1′KICK-OFF Bracknell Town v Hanworth Villa
2′Much as we predicted: Bracknell Town was 38% before kick-off and our model makes it 38% now. 0–0 · 38–24–38
40′⚽ GOAL · 40' Bracknell Town 0–1 Hanworth Villa
41′A goal for Hanworth Villa on 40′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 12–22–67
41′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 41' Bracknell Town win: 38% at kick-off, 12% now
41′THE CALL SWINGS · 41' Hanworth Villa win is now our likeliest result at 67% (was Bracknell Town win 12%)
42′We said Bracknell Town at 38%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 11%. 0–1 · 11–22–67
45′HALF-TIME Bracknell Town 0–1 Hanworth Villa
46′SECOND HALF Bracknell Town 0–1 Hanworth Villa
46′⚽ GOAL · 46' Bracknell Town 1–1 Hanworth Villa
47′46′ and it is 1–1: Bracknell Town have scored. 1–1 · 32–36–32
47′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 47' Bracknell Town win: 38% at kick-off, 32% now
48′Goals are coming at about the 3.2 we expected. 1–1 · 32–37–31
48′THE CALL SWINGS · 48' Draw is now our likeliest result at 37% (was Hanworth Villa win 31%)
50′Hanworth Villa find the net on 49′. 1–2. 1–2 · 9–22–69
50′⚽ GOAL · 49' Bracknell Town 1–2 Hanworth Villa
50′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 50' Bracknell Town win: 38% at kick-off, 9% now
50′THE CALL SWINGS · 50' Hanworth Villa win is now our likeliest result at 69% (was Draw 22%)
51′We said Bracknell Town at 38%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 9%. 1–2 · 9–22–69
53′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 53' Bracknell Town win: 38% at kick-off, 8% now
54′⚽ GOAL · 40' Bracknell Town 1–2 Hanworth Villa · S. Sesay
54′⚽ GOAL · 46' Bracknell Town 1–2 Hanworth Villa · J. Sharpe
54′⚽ GOAL · 49' Bracknell Town 1–2 Hanworth Villa · M. Harding
59′⚽ GOAL · 59' Bracknell Town 1–3 Hanworth Villa
60′A goal for Hanworth Villa on 59′ — 1–3. 1–3 · 1–5–93
62′We said Bracknell Town at 38%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 1%. 1–3 · 1–5–94
76′⚽ GOAL · 76' Bracknell Town 1–4 Hanworth Villa
87′76′ and it is 1–4: H. Vaughan on the scoresheet for Hanworth Villa. 1–4 · 0–0–100
88′That is 5, and we only asked for 3.2 across ninety minutes. 1–4 · 0–0–100
FTFULL TIME Bracknell Town 1–4 Hanworth Villa
FTBracknell Town 1–4 Hanworth Villa · Bracknell Town win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Our analyst’s one-line verdict on how this match goes.

What decides it

The reason that decides itThe fact behind it, in one line.

– –

Where the chances come fromThe figure that shows it, in one line.

– –

What could tip the balanceWhat could change it, in one line.

– –

The AI’s read on this match

The verdict, the three reasons that decide it, what would change it and the players to watch — checked live during the game, with a review after full time. Included with a pass.

See the passes

Pre-match prediction

Published 13 Oct 19:33 · locked at kick-off

Bracknell Town win38%

Draw24%

Hanworth Villa win38%

Kick-offTUE 13 OCT · 19:45

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Bracknell Town

Hanworth Villa

3Days since last match3

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
4	Hanworth Villa	10	+7	19
17	Bracknell Town	10	−8	11

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · bracknell town winFirst published 9 Oct 06:15 · updated 13 Oct 19:33 · locked at kick-off

38% The market32%

Us38%

~~Market~~32%

We make Bracknell Town a 38% chance to win. The market has them at 32%. We are 6 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.6–1.6.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · bracknell town win The market, margin stripped

Published at 37%, 38% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 32% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Bracknell Town win	38%	32%	+6
Draw	24%	26%	−3
Hanworth Villa win	38%	42%	−4
Over 2.5 goals	62%	58%	+4
Both teams to score	63%	62%	+2
Over 1.5 goals	83%	79%	+4
Over 3.5 goals	40%	37%	+3
Bracknell Town or draw	62%	58%	+4
Bracknell Town clean sheet	21%	–	–
Hanworth Villa clean sheet	20%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.4%

0123450 4.4 6.4 5.2 2.8 1 6.4 10.4 8.1 4.3 2 5.3 8.2 6.4 3.5 3 2.9 4.4 3.5 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Bracknell Town down, Hanworth Villa across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 2,426 Non League Premier - Southern South matches up to 13 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Non League Premier - Southern South matches have gone over 2.5 in 59.1% of games this season, across 110 played.

Head to head

No previous meeting between these two, so this step adds nothing.

Home and away form

Bracknell Town at home: 2.83 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). Hanworth Villa away: 0.75 scored, 0.50 conceded (last 4).

What the model expects

1.61 goals for Bracknell Town, 1.60 for Hanworth Villa. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

0 meetings since 2021

No meetings between these two in Non League Premier - Southern South since 2021. Cup ties and meetings in other competitions are not counted here.

Form · last six in Non League Premier - Southern South

BRACKNELL TOWN

WLLWDL3–1 · 1–2 · 0–2 · 2–1 · 1–1 · 0–1

HANWORTH VILLA

DWLWWL0–0 · 4–1 · 2–3 · 2–1 · 2–1 · 1–3

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Poole Town	11	+6	24
2	Uxbridge	10	+12	23
3	Plymouth Parkway	10	+13	20
4	Hanworth Villa	10	+7	19
5	Bath City	10	+4	17
6	Frome Town	11	+4	16
7	Chichester City	10	0	16
8	Berkhamsted	11	0	16
9	Wimborne Town	9	+9	15
10	Chertsey Town	10	+5	15
11	Gosport Borough	11	+1	15
12	Taunton Town	10	0	13
13	Evesham United	10	−4	13
14	Basingstoke Town	10	+1	12
15	Yate Town	10	−8	12
16	Sholing	9	−3	11
17	Bracknell Town	10	−8	11
18	Hanwell Town	9	−2	10
19	Gloucester City	10	−3	10
20	Chippenham Town	9	−9	8
21	Havant & Wville	10	−10	5
22	Malvern Town	10	−15	5