Bracknell Town v Chichester City prediction · Non League Premier

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 18:10

Bracknell Town 1–0 Chichester City BRACKNELL TOWN WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Bracknell Town win~~41%

~~The market said~~38%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.532

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.583

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay12 notes · 9 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Bracknell Town win at 41%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Bracknell Town 41% before kick-off, 41% now. 0–0 · 41–22–37
1′KICK-OFF Bracknell Town v Chichester City
5′Little has changed for our model: Bracknell Town 41% before kick-off, 41% now. 0–0 · 41–23–36
24′A goal for Bracknell Town on 24′. 0–0 · 39–27–35
25′We said Bracknell Town at 41% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 65%. 1–0 · 65–20–15
25′⚽ GOAL · 24' Bracknell Town 1–0 Chichester City
25′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 25' Bracknell Town win: 41% at kick-off, 65% now
26′Bracknell Town ahead on 23′ through H. Cooksley. 1–0. 1–0 · 65–20–15
30′The goal count is tracking the 3.5 we expected. 1–0 · 66–20–14
45′HALF-TIME Bracknell Town 1–0 Chichester City
46′SECOND HALF Bracknell Town 1–0 Chichester City
51′We said Bracknell Town at 41% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 70%. 1–0 · 70–21–9
55′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 45+10' Bracknell Town win: 41% at kick-off, 71% now
65′We said Bracknell Town at 41% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 75%. 1–0 · 75–20–5
74′We said Bracknell Town at 41% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 80%. 1–0 · 80–17–3
75′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 75' Bracknell Town win: 41% at kick-off, 81% now
79′We said Bracknell Town at 41% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 85%. 1–0 · 85–14–2
84′We said Bracknell Town at 41% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 90%. 1–0 · 90–9–1
85′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 85' Bracknell Town win: 41% at kick-off, 91% now
90′We said Bracknell Town at 41% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 95%. 1–0 · 95–5–0
FTFULL TIME Bracknell Town 1–0 Chichester City
FTBracknell Town 1–0 Chichester City · Bracknell Town win: right · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with Bracknell Town just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: Bracknell Town 41%, draw 22%, Chichester City 37%. Over 2.5 goals 68%, both teams to score 68%.

The AI’s read on Bracknell Town v Chichester CityBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Bracknell Town win41%

Draw22%

Chichester City win37%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 15:00

RoundMatchday 13

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Bracknell Town

Chichester City

4Days since last match4

Last match: 13 Oct · Non League Premier - Southern South

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
7	Chichester City	11	+1	19
18	Bracknell Town	11	−11	11

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · bracknell town winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · updated 14 Oct 04:39 · locked at kick-off

41% The market38%

Us41%

~~Market~~38%

We make Bracknell Town a 41% chance to win. The market has them at 38%. We are 3 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.8–1.7.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Bracknell Town v Chichester City~~1.81 – 1.71

~~Form · last six in Non League Premier - Southern South this season · since 31 Aug~~W1 D1 L4 · W3 D1 L2

~~Table places · points 11 v 19~~18 v 7

~~The market · Bracknell Town win~~38% · ours 41%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Bracknell Town win The market, margin stripped

Published at 44%, 41% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 38% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Bracknell Town win	41%	38%	+3
Draw	22%	26%	−4
Chichester City win	37%	36%	+1
Over 2.5 goals	68%	60%	+8
Both teams to score	68%	63%	+5
Over 1.5 goals	86%	80%	+6
Over 3.5 goals	46%	40%	+6
Bracknell Town or draw	63%	64%	−1
Bracknell Town clean sheet	19%	–	–
Chichester City clean sheet	17%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 5 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 9.3%

0123450 3.3 5.0 4.4 2.5 1 5.3 9.3 7.6 4.4 2 4.9 8.1 6.8 3.9 3 3.0 4.9 4.1 2.4 4 2.3 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Bracknell Town down, Chichester City across0–5 goals a side shown (97.8% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 2,434 Non League Premier - Southern South matches up to 13 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Non League Premier - Southern South matches have gone over 2.5 in 59.3% of games this season, across 118 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2020/21.

Home and away form

Bracknell Town at home: 2.83 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). Chichester City away: 1.17 scored, 2.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.81 goals for Bracknell Town, 1.71 for Chichester City. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2020/21

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2020/21.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Non League Premier - Southern South this season · since 31 Aug

BRACKNELL TOWN

LLWDLL1–2 · 0–2 · 2–1 · 1–1 · 0–1 · 1–4

CHICHESTER CITY

WLDLWW3–2 · 0–5 · 2–2 · 1–2 · 3–1 · 3–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Poole Town	11	+6	24
2	Plymouth Parkway	11	+14	23
3	Uxbridge	10	+12	23
4	Hanworth Villa	11	+10	22
5	Bath City	11	+6	20
6	Frome Town	12	+6	19
7	Chichester City	11	+1	19
8	Chertsey Town	11	+5	16
9	Berkhamsted	11	0	16
10	Wimborne Town	10	+8	15
11	Gosport Borough	11	+1	15
12	Taunton Town	10	0	13
13	Evesham United	11	−6	13
14	Basingstoke Town	11	−2	12
15	Yate Town	11	−9	12
16	Hanwell Town	10	−2	11
17	Sholing	10	−4	11
18	Bracknell Town	11	−11	11
19	Gloucester City	10	−3	10
20	Havant & Wville	11	−7	8
21	Chippenham Town	10	−11	8
22	Malvern Town	11	−14	8