Berkhamsted v Sholing prediction · Non League Premier

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

BerkhamstedDrawSholing

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 19:45

Before kick-off · Match result · Berkhamsted 45%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Berkhamsted are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Berkhamsted 45%, draw 26%, Sholing 29%. Over 2.5 goals 50%, both teams to score 53%.

The AI’s read on Berkhamsted v SholingBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 21 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

Berkhamsted win45%

Draw26%

Sholing win29%

Kick-offTUE 27 OCT · 19:45

RoundMatchday 15

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Berkhamsted

Sholing

3Days since last match3

Last match: 24 Oct · the English FA Trophy

3Matches in previous 14 days4

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
12	Berkhamsted	12	−2	16
16	Sholing	11	−4	12

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · berkhamsted winFirst published 21 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

45% The market–

Us45%

We make Berkhamsted a 45% chance to win. The model expects 1.5–1.2, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 12%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Berkhamsted v Sholing~~1.51 – 1.15

~~Form · last six in Non League Premier - Southern South this season · since 31 Aug~~W2 D1 L3 · W2 D2 L2

~~Table places · points 16 v 12~~12 v 16

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Berkhamsted win	45%	–	–
Draw	26%	–	–
Sholing win	29%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	50%	–	–
Both teams to score	53%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	74%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	28%	–	–
Berkhamsted or draw	71%	–	–
Berkhamsted clean sheet	32%	–	–
Sholing clean sheet	23%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.1%

0123450 7.4 7.9 4.7 1 10.4 12.1 6.8 2.7 2 7.9 8.9 5.1 2.0 3 4.0 4.5 2.6 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Berkhamsted down, Sholing across0–5 goals a side shown (99.3% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 2,450 Non League Premier - Southern South matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Non League Premier - Southern South matches have gone over 2.5 in 58.2% of games this season, across 134 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 3 previous meetings since 2022/23 in every competition we cover, 2.00 goals a meeting; 0 of 3 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Berkhamsted at home: 1.50 scored, 0.83 conceded a game (last 6). Sholing away: 1.33 scored, 0.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.51 goals for Berkhamsted, 1.15 for Sholing. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

3 meetings since 2022/23

~~Goals a meeting~~2.00

~~Over 2.5~~0 of 3

~~Both scored~~2 of 3

~~Last meetings~~SHO 2–0 BER · SHO 1–1 BER · BER 1–1 SHO

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Non League Premier - Southern South this season · since 31 Aug

BERKHAMSTED

DWLLWL0–0 · 1–0 · 1–2 · 0–2 · 3–0 · 1–3

SHOLING

WLWDLD1–0 · 1–3 · 2–0 · 1–1 · 2–3 · 1–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Poole Town	12	+9	27
2	Uxbridge	11	+15	26
3	Bath City	13	+9	26
4	Hanworth Villa	13	+10	24
5	Plymouth Parkway	11	+14	23
6	Chichester City	13	+2	22
7	Taunton Town	12	+7	19
8	Chertsey Town	12	+7	19
9	Frome Town	13	+4	19
10	Wimborne Town	11	+11	18
11	Gosport Borough	13	+2	18
12	Berkhamsted	12	−2	16
13	Bracknell Town	13	−14	14
14	Yate Town	12	−9	13
15	Evesham United	13	−11	13
16	Sholing	11	−4	12
17	Basingstoke Town	12	−6	12
18	Hanwell Town	11	−4	11
19	Malvern Town	13	−15	11
20	Gloucester City	10	−3	10
21	Havant & Wville	13	−8	9
22	Chippenham Town	12	−14	9