Bath City v Poole Town prediction · Non League Premier

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Bath CityDrawPoole Town

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 15:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Bath City 40%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Bath City are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Bath City 40%, draw 26%, Poole Town 34%. Over 2.5 goals 49%, both teams to score 53%.

The AI’s read on Bath City v Poole TownBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

Bath City win40%

Draw26%

Poole Town win34%

Kick-offSAT 31 OCT · 15:00

RoundMatchday 16

VenueTwerton Park

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Bath City

Poole Town

7Days since last match7

Last match: 24 Oct · the English FA Trophy

3Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · bath city winFirst published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

40% The market–

Us40%

We make Bath City a 40% chance to win. The model expects 1.4–1.3, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 12%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Bath City v Poole Town~~1.37 – 1.25

~~Form · last six in Non League Premier - Southern South this season · since 12 Sept~~W5 D0 L1 · W6 D0 L0

~~Table places · points 26 v 27~~3 v 1

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Bath City win	40%	–	–
Draw	26%	–	–
Poole Town win	34%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	49%	–	–
Both teams to score	53%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	74%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	27%	–	–
Bath City or draw	66%	–	–
Bath City clean sheet	29%	–	–
Poole Town clean sheet	26%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.4%

0123450 7.7 8.9 5.7 2.4 1 9.9 12.4 7.5 3.2 2 6.9 8.3 5.1 2.2 3 3.2 3.9 2.4 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Bath City down, Poole Town across0–5 goals a side shown (99.4% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 2,450 Non League Premier - Southern South matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Non League Premier - Southern South matches have gone over 2.5 in 58.2% of games this season, across 134 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2021/22.

Home and away form

Bath City at home: 1.33 scored, 0.83 conceded a game (last 6). Poole Town away: 2.33 scored, 1.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.37 goals for Bath City, 1.25 for Poole Town. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2021/22

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2021/22.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Non League Premier - Southern South this season · since 12 Sept

BATH CITY

WWLWWW3–1 · 2–1 · 1–2 · 2–0 · 2–0 · 1–0

POOLE TOWN

WWWWWW1–0 · 3–1 · 3–1 · 3–1 · 1–0 · 4–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Poole Town	12	+9	27
2	Uxbridge	11	+15	26
3	Bath City	13	+9	26
4	Hanworth Villa	13	+10	24
5	Plymouth Parkway	12	+12	23
6	Chichester City	13	+2	22
7	Taunton Town	12	+7	19
8	Chertsey Town	12	+7	19
9	Frome Town	13	+4	19
10	Wimborne Town	11	+11	18
11	Gosport Borough	13	+2	18
12	Berkhamsted	12	−2	16
13	Basingstoke Town	13	−4	15
14	Bracknell Town	13	−14	14
15	Yate Town	12	−9	13
16	Evesham United	13	−11	13
17	Sholing	11	−4	12
18	Hanwell Town	11	−4	11
19	Malvern Town	13	−15	11
20	Gloucester City	10	−3	10
21	Havant & Wville	13	−8	9
22	Chippenham Town	12	−14	9