Home › Football › Non League Premier - Southern South › Bath City v Havant & Wville

Bath City v Havant & Wville

Bath City

1–0Full time

Havant & Wville

Non League Premier - Southern South · TUE 20 OCT · Twerton Park

Full timeGraded 20 Oct 22:30

Bath City 1–0 Havant & Wville BATH CITY WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Bath City win~~48%

~~The market said~~59%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.408

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.258

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay12 notes · 12 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Bath City win at 48%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Bath City 48% before kick-off, 48% now. 0–0 · 48–23–29
1′KICK-OFF Bath City v Havant & Wville
45′HALF-TIME Bath City 0–0 Havant & Wville
46′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45+1' Bath City win: 48% at kick-off, 38% now
50′SECOND HALF Bath City 0–0 Havant & Wville
52′We said Bath City at 48%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 36%. 0–0 · 36–39–24
54′THE CALL SWINGS · 45+9' Draw is now our likeliest result at 41% (was Bath City win 38%)
55′Goalless on 55′ when we expected about 3.1 goals — that one is getting away from us. 0–0 · 35–41–24
56′We said Bath City at 48%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 34%. 0–0 · 34–42–24
65′We said Bath City at 48%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 29%. 0–0 · 29–50–21
67′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 67' Bath City win: 48% at kick-off, 28% now
72′We said Bath City at 48%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 24%. 0–0 · 24–59–17
77′We said Bath City at 48%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 19%. 0–0 · 19–67–14
78′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 78' Bath City win: 48% at kick-off, 18% now
82′We said Bath City at 48%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 13%. 0–0 · 13–77–10
84′Bath City find the net on 84′. 1–0. 1–0 · 92–7–0
84′We said Bath City at 48% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 92%. 1–0 · 92–7–0
84′⚽ GOAL · 84' Bath City 1–0 Havant & Wville
84′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 84' Bath City win: 48% at kick-off, 92% now
84′THE CALL SWINGS · 84' Bath City win is now our likeliest result at 92% (was Draw 82%)
85′Bath City ahead on 83′ through A. Fisher. 1–0. 1–0 · 93–7–0
88′We said Bath City at 48% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 95%. 1–0 · 95–5–0
93′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 90+3' Bath City win: 48% at kick-off, 98% now
FTFULL TIME Bath City 1–0 Havant & Wville
FTBath City 1–0 Havant & Wville · Bath City win: right · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Bath City are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Bath City 48%, draw 23%, Havant & Wville 29%. Over 2.5 goals 60%, both teams to score 61%.

The AI’s read on Bath City v Havant & WvilleBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 14 Oct 04:28 · locked at kick-off

Bath City win48%

Draw23%

Havant & Wville win29%

Kick-offTUE 20 OCT · 19:45

RoundMatchday 14

VenueTwerton Park

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Bath City

Havant & Wville

3Days since last match3

Last match: 17 Oct · Non League Premier - Southern South

3Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
5	Bath City	12	+8	23
21	Havant & Wville	12	−7	9

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · bath city winFirst published 14 Oct 04:28 · updated 18 Oct 00:17 · locked at kick-off

48% The market59%

Us48%

~~Market~~59%

We make Bath City a 48% chance to win. The market has them at 59%. We are 11 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.8–1.3.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Bath City v Havant & Wville~~1.80 – 1.34

~~Form · last six in Non League Premier - Southern South this season · since 12 Sept~~W5 D0 L1 · W1 D2 L3

~~Table places · points 23 v 9~~5 v 21

~~The market · Bath City win~~59% · ours 48%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Bath City win The market, margin stripped

Published at 46%, 48% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 59% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Bath City win	48%	59%	−11
Draw	23%	22%	+1
Havant & Wville win	29%	19%	+10
Over 2.5 goals	60%	60%	0
Both teams to score	61%	58%	+3
Over 1.5 goals	82%	79%	+3
Over 3.5 goals	38%	40%	−2
Bath City or draw	71%	81%	−10
Bath City clean sheet	27%	–	–
Havant & Wville clean sheet	17%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.5%

0123450 4.8 5.8 4.0 1 7.7 10.5 6.9 3.1 2 7.0 9.1 6.0 2.7 3 4.2 5.5 3.6 4 2.5 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Bath City down, Havant & Wville across0–5 goals a side shown (98.4% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 2,441 Non League Premier - Southern South matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Non League Premier - Southern South matches have gone over 2.5 in 59.2% of games this season, across 125 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 6 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 2.33 goals a meeting; 2 of 6 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Bath City at home: 1.33 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). Havant & Wville away: 1.17 scored, 2.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.80 goals for Bath City, 1.34 for Havant & Wville. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

6 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~2.33

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 6

~~Both scored~~3 of 6

~~Last meetings~~HAV 1–1 BAT · BAT 2–0 HAV · BAT 2–0 HAV · HAV 2–2 BAT

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Non League Premier - Southern South this season · since 12 Sept

BATH CITY

WWWLWW2–0 · 3–1 · 2–1 · 1–2 · 2–0 · 2–0

HAVANT & WVILLE

LLDLWD0–1 · 1–2 · 1–1 · 3–6 · 4–1 · 2–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Poole Town	12	+9	27
2	Plymouth Parkway	11	+14	23
3	Uxbridge	10	+12	23
4	Hanworth Villa	12	+10	23
5	Bath City	12	+8	23
6	Frome Town	13	+4	19
7	Chichester City	12	0	19
8	Gosport Borough	12	+5	18
9	Chertsey Town	11	+5	16
10	Taunton Town	11	+3	16
11	Berkhamsted	11	0	16
12	Wimborne Town	10	+8	15
13	Bracknell Town	12	−10	14
14	Evesham United	12	−9	13
15	Basingstoke Town	12	−6	12
16	Yate Town	11	−9	12
17	Sholing	10	−4	11
18	Hanwell Town	11	−4	11
19	Malvern Town	12	−12	11
20	Gloucester City	10	−3	10
21	Havant & Wville	12	−7	9
22	Chippenham Town	11	−14	8