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Bath City v Gosport Borough

Bath City

1–2Full time

Gosport Borough

Non League Premier - Southern South · SAT 10 OCT · Twerton Park

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 17:33

Bath City 1–2 Gosport Borough BATH CITY WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Bath City win~~49%

~~The market said~~58%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.836

~~The market’s Brier score~~1.043

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay1 note · 8 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Bath City win at 49%.
2′KICK-OFF Bath City v Gosport Borough
6′Little has changed for our model: Bath City 49% before kick-off, 48% now. 0–0 · 48–25–27
45′HALF-TIME Bath City 0–0 Gosport Borough
45′⚽ GOAL · 22' Bath City 0–0 Gosport Borough · M. Bowman
45′⚽ GOAL · 45' Bath City 1–0 Gosport Borough · M. Bowman
47′SECOND HALF Bath City 1–0 Gosport Borough
53′⚽ GOAL · 52' Bath City 1–1 Gosport Borough
81′⚽ GOAL · 81' Bath City 1–2 Gosport Borough
FTFULL TIME Bath City 1–2 Gosport Borough
FTBath City 1–2 Gosport Borough · Bath City win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Bath City win49%

Draw24%

Gosport Borough win27%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 15:00

Venue · Twerton Park

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · bath city winPublished 10 Oct 15:19

49% The market58%

Us49%

~~Market~~58%

We make Bath City a 49% chance to win. The market has them at 58%. We are 9 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.7–1.2.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · bath city win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 55% to 58% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Bath City win	49%	58%	−9
Draw	24%	23%	+2
Gosport Borough win	27%	19%	+8
Over 2.5 goals	54%	58%	−4
Both teams to score	56%	57%	−1
Over 1.5 goals	78%	80%	−2
Over 3.5 goals	32%	38%	−6
Bath City or draw	73%	81%	−8
Bath City clean sheet	31%	–	–
Gosport Borough clean sheet	19%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 8 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.4%

0123450 6.2 6.6 4.0 1 9.5 11.4 6.5 2.6 2 8.1 9.2 5.4 2.2 3 4.6 5.2 3.1 4 2.3 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Bath City down, Gosport Borough across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 2,415 Non League Premier - Southern South matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Non League Premier - Southern South matches have gone over 2.5 in 57.6% of games this season, across 99 played.

Head to head

No previous meeting in our records, so this step adds nothing.

Home and away form

Bath City at home: 1.40 scored, 0.80 conceded a game (last 5). Gosport Borough away: 1.50 scored, 1.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.69 goals for Bath City, 1.18 for Gosport Borough. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

0 meetings since 2021

No previous meeting of these two in our records. We say so rather than invent one.

Form · last six in Non League Premier - Southern South

BATH CITY

DLLWWW1–1 · 1–2 · 0–1 · 2–0 · 3–1 · 2–1

GOSPORT BOROUGH

WLWDDL4–2 · 0–1 · 3–1 · 1–1 · 1–1 · 1–3

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Poole Town	10	+5	21
2	Plymouth Parkway	9	+15	20
3	Uxbridge	9	+11	20
4	Hanworth Villa	9	+9	19
5	Bath City	9	+5	17
6	Frome Town	10	+4	15
7	Chertsey Town	9	+5	14
8	Taunton Town	9	+1	13
9	Chichester City	9	−2	13
10	Evesham United	9	−3	13
11	Berkhamsted	10	−3	13
12	Wimborne Town	8	+6	12
13	Gosport Borough	10	0	12
14	Yate Town	9	−5	12
15	Bracknell Town	9	−7	11
16	Sholing	8	−3	10
17	Basingstoke Town	9	−2	9
18	Hanwell Town	8	−3	7
19	Gloucester City	9	−5	7
20	Chippenham Town	8	−9	7
21	Havant & Wville	9	−7	5
22	Malvern Town	9	−12	5