Basingstoke Town v Uxbridge prediction · Non League Premier

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Basingstoke TownDrawUxbridge

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 19:45

Before kick-off · Match result · Uxbridge 44%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Uxbridge are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Basingstoke Town 33%, draw 23%, Uxbridge 44%. Over 2.5 goals 64%, both teams to score 64%.

The AI’s read on Basingstoke Town v UxbridgeBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 21 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

Basingstoke Town win33%

Draw23%

Uxbridge win44%

Kick-offTUE 27 OCT · 19:45

RoundMatchday 15

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Basingstoke Town

Uxbridge

3Days since last match3

Last match: 24 Oct · Non League Premier - Southern South

Last match: 24 Oct · the English FA Trophy

3Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
2	Uxbridge	11	+15	26
13	Basingstoke Town	13	−4	15

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · uxbridge winFirst published 21 Oct 00:01 · updated 25 Oct 00:18 · locked at kick-off

44% The market–

Us44%

We make Uxbridge a 44% chance to win. The model expects 1.5–1.8, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 10%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Basingstoke Town v Uxbridge~~1.53 – 1.78

~~Form · last six in Non League Premier - Southern South this season · since 31 Aug~~W2 D1 L3 · W4 D1 L1

~~Table places · points 15 v 26~~13 v 2

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Uxbridge win

Published at 45%, 44% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Basingstoke Town win	33%	–	–
Draw	23%	–	–
Uxbridge win	44%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	64%	–	–
Both teams to score	64%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	84%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	42%	–	–
Basingstoke Town or draw	56%	–	–
Basingstoke Town clean sheet	17%	–	–
Uxbridge clean sheet	22%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.0%

0123450 4.1 6.5 5.8 3.5 1 5.6 10.0 8.6 5.1 2.3 2 4.3 7.5 6.5 3.9 3 2.2 3.8 3.3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Basingstoke Town down, Uxbridge across0–5 goals a side shown (98.3% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 2,450 Non League Premier - Southern South matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Non League Premier - Southern South matches have gone over 2.5 in 58.2% of games this season, across 134 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 7 previous meetings since 2020/21 in every competition we cover, 2.86 goals a meeting; 4 of 7 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Basingstoke Town at home: 2.00 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). Uxbridge away: 1.17 scored, 1.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.53 goals for Basingstoke Town, 1.78 for Uxbridge. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

7 meetings since 2020/21

~~Goals a meeting~~2.86

~~Over 2.5~~4 of 7

~~Both scored~~6 of 7

~~Last meetings~~UXB 2–1 BAS · BAS 1–1 UXB · UXB 2–1 BAS · BAS 3–2 UXB

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Non League Premier - Southern South this season · since 31 Aug

BASINGSTOKE TOWN

DLWLLW1–1 · 1–2 · 4–1 · 1–4 · 0–4 · 2–0

UXBRIDGE

DWLWWW0–0 · 5–0 · 0–1 · 2–1 · 1–0 · 3–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Poole Town	12	+9	27
2	Uxbridge	11	+15	26
3	Bath City	13	+9	26
4	Hanworth Villa	13	+10	24
5	Plymouth Parkway	12	+12	23
6	Chichester City	13	+2	22
7	Taunton Town	12	+7	19
8	Chertsey Town	12	+7	19
9	Frome Town	13	+4	19
10	Wimborne Town	11	+11	18
11	Gosport Borough	13	+2	18
12	Berkhamsted	12	−2	16
13	Basingstoke Town	13	−4	15
14	Bracknell Town	13	−14	14
15	Yate Town	12	−9	13
16	Evesham United	13	−11	13
17	Sholing	11	−4	12
18	Hanwell Town	11	−4	11
19	Malvern Town	13	−15	11
20	Gloucester City	10	−3	10
21	Havant & Wville	13	−8	9
22	Chippenham Town	12	−14	9