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Basingstoke Town v Plymouth Parkway

Basingstoke Town

2–0Full time

Plymouth Parkway

Non League Premier - Southern South · SAT 24 OCT

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 18:08

Basingstoke Town 2–0 Plymouth Parkway PLYMOUTH PARKWAY WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Plymouth Parkway win~~40%

~~The market said~~43%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.593

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.718

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay6 notes · 10 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Plymouth Parkway win at 40%.
1′Much as we predicted: Plymouth Parkway was 40% before kick-off and our model makes it 40% now. 0–0 · 38–22–40
1′KICK-OFF Basingstoke Town v Plymouth Parkway
36′Basingstoke Town score on 36′ to make it 1–0. 1–0 · 64–21–14
36′⚽ GOAL · 36' Basingstoke Town 1–0 Plymouth Parkway
36′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 36' Plymouth Parkway win: 40% at kick-off, 14% now
36′THE CALL SWINGS · 36' Basingstoke Town win is now our likeliest result at 64% (was Plymouth Parkway win 36%)
37′We said Plymouth Parkway at 40%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 14%. 1–0 · 64–21–14
45′HALF-TIME Basingstoke Town 1–0 Plymouth Parkway
46′SECOND HALF Basingstoke Town 1–0 Plymouth Parkway
51′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 51' Plymouth Parkway win: 40% at kick-off, 10% now
54′We said Plymouth Parkway at 40%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 9%. 1–0 · 69–22–9
70′We said Plymouth Parkway at 40%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 4%. 1–0 · 76–19–4
73′Basingstoke Town find the net on 72′. 2–0. 2–0 · 97–3–0
73′⚽ GOAL · 72' Basingstoke Town 2–0 Plymouth Parkway
73′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 73' Plymouth Parkway win: 40% at kick-off, under 1% now
FTFULL TIME Basingstoke Town 2–0 Plymouth Parkway
FTBasingstoke Town 2–0 Plymouth Parkway · Plymouth Parkway win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with Plymouth Parkway just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: Basingstoke Town 38%, draw 22%, Plymouth Parkway 40%. Over 2.5 goals 67%, both teams to score 67%.

The AI’s read on Basingstoke Town v Plymouth ParkwayBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Basingstoke Town win38%

Draw22%

Plymouth Parkway win40%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 15:00

RoundMatchday 14

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Basingstoke Town

Plymouth Parkway

7Days since last match7

Last match: 17 Oct · Non League Premier - Southern South

Last match: 17 Oct · the English FA Cup

3Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
5	Plymouth Parkway	11	+14	23
17	Basingstoke Town	12	−6	12

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · plymouth parkway winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

40% The market43%

Us40%

~~Market~~43%

We make Plymouth Parkway a 40% chance to win. The market has them at 43%. We are 3 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.7–1.8.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Basingstoke Town v Plymouth Parkway~~1.72 – 1.77

~~Form · last six in Non League Premier - Southern South this season · since 31 Aug~~W1 D2 L3 · W4 D1 L1

~~Table places · points 12 v 23~~17 v 5

~~The market · Plymouth Parkway win~~43% · ours 40%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Plymouth Parkway win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 43% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Basingstoke Town win	38%	32%	+6
Draw	22%	25%	−3
Plymouth Parkway win	40%	43%	−3
Over 2.5 goals	67%	60%	+7
Both teams to score	67%	63%	+4
Over 1.5 goals	86%	81%	+5
Over 3.5 goals	46%	40%	+6
Basingstoke Town or draw	60%	57%	+3
Basingstoke Town clean sheet	18%	–	–
Plymouth Parkway clean sheet	18%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 9.4%

0123450 3.4 5.3 4.8 2.8 1 5.3 9.4 8.0 4.7 2.2 2 4.6 7.8 6.8 4.0 3 2.7 4.5 3.9 2.3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Basingstoke Town down, Plymouth Parkway across0–5 goals a side shown (97.8% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 2,449 Non League Premier - Southern South matches up to 20 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Non League Premier - Southern South matches have gone over 2.5 in 58.6% of games this season, across 133 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 6 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 2.17 goals a meeting; 2 of 6 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Basingstoke Town at home: 2.17 scored, 1.50 conceded a game (last 6). Plymouth Parkway away: 1.83 scored, 1.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.72 goals for Basingstoke Town, 1.77 for Plymouth Parkway. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

6 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~2.17

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 6

~~Both scored~~3 of 6

~~Last meetings~~PLY 3–0 BAS · BAS 1–1 PLY · BAS 0–1 PLY · PLY 1–3 BAS

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Non League Premier - Southern South this season · since 31 Aug

BASINGSTOKE TOWN

DDLWLL1–1 · 1–1 · 1–2 · 4–1 · 1–4 · 0–4

PLYMOUTH PARKWAY

WWWDLW2–0 · 3–1 · 2–0 · 1–1 · 1–3 · 2–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Poole Town	12	+9	27
2	Uxbridge	11	+15	26
3	Bath City	13	+9	26
4	Hanworth Villa	13	+10	24
5	Plymouth Parkway	11	+14	23
6	Chichester City	13	+2	22
7	Taunton Town	12	+7	19
8	Chertsey Town	12	+7	19
9	Frome Town	13	+4	19
10	Wimborne Town	11	+11	18
11	Gosport Borough	13	+2	18
12	Berkhamsted	12	−2	16
13	Bracknell Town	13	−14	14
14	Yate Town	12	−9	13
15	Evesham United	13	−11	13
16	Sholing	11	−4	12
17	Basingstoke Town	12	−6	12
18	Hanwell Town	11	−4	11
19	Malvern Town	13	−15	11
20	Gloucester City	10	−3	10
21	Havant & Wville	13	−8	9
22	Chippenham Town	12	−14	9