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Basingstoke Town v Malvern Town

Basingstoke Town

4–1Full time

Malvern Town

Non League Premier - Southern South · SAT 10 OCT

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 17:33

Basingstoke Town 4–1 Malvern Town BASINGSTOKE TOWN WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG2–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Basingstoke Town win~~53%

~~The market said~~48%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.330

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.405

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay3 notes · 12 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Basingstoke Town win at 53%.
1′Much as we predicted: Basingstoke Town was 53% before kick-off and our model makes it 53% now. 0–0 · 53–21–26
1′KICK-OFF Basingstoke Town v Malvern Town
45′C. Sylla scores for Basingstoke Town on 45′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 75–17–7
45′⚽ GOAL · 45' Basingstoke Town 1–0 Malvern Town
45′HALF-TIME Basingstoke Town 1–0 Malvern Town
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 45' Basingstoke Town win: 53% at kick-off, 75% now
48′SECOND HALF Basingstoke Town 1–0 Malvern Town
54′⚽ GOAL · 53' Basingstoke Town 2–0 Malvern Town
68′53′ and it is 2–0: S. Armsworth on the scoresheet for Basingstoke Town. 2–0 · 97–3–0
68′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 68' Basingstoke Town win: 53% at kick-off, 97% now
75′⚽ GOAL · 75' Basingstoke Town 2–1 Malvern Town
84′⚽ GOAL · 83' Basingstoke Town 3–1 Malvern Town
90′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 90' Basingstoke Town win: 53% at kick-off, 97% now
90′⚽ GOAL · 95' Basingstoke Town 4–1 Malvern Town
FTFULL TIME Basingstoke Town 4–1 Malvern Town
FTBasingstoke Town 4–1 Malvern Town · Basingstoke Town win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 2–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Basingstoke Town win53%

Draw21%

Malvern Town win26%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 15:00

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · basingstoke town winPublished 10 Oct 15:43

53% The market48%

Us53%

~~Market~~48%

We make Basingstoke Town a 53% chance to win. The market has them at 48%. We are 5 points more confident than the market. The model expects 2.2–1.5.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · basingstoke town win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 51% to 48% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Basingstoke Town win	53%	48%	+5
Draw	21%	24%	−3
Malvern Town win	26%	28%	−2
Over 2.5 goals	70%	64%	+6
Both teams to score	67%	65%	+3
Over 1.5 goals	87%	83%	+4
Over 3.5 goals	49%	44%	+5
Basingstoke Town or draw	74%	72%	+2
Basingstoke Town clean sheet	24%	–	–
Malvern Town clean sheet	12%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 8 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–1 at 8.8%

0123450 3.0 3.9 2.9 1 5.7 8.5 6.1 3.0 2 6.2 8.8 6.4 3.2 3 4.5 6.4 4.6 2.3 4 2.5 3.5 2.5 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Basingstoke Town down, Malvern Town across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 2,415 Non League Premier - Southern South matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Non League Premier - Southern South matches have gone over 2.5 in 57.6% of games this season, across 99 played.

Head to head

No previous meeting in our records, so this step adds nothing.

Home and away form

Basingstoke Town at home: 1.67 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). Malvern Town away: 1.00 scored, 3.20 conceded (last 5).

What the model expects

2.17 goals for Basingstoke Town, 1.47 for Malvern Town. Most likely score 2–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

0 meetings since 2021

No previous meeting of these two in our records. We say so rather than invent one.

Form · last six in Non League Premier - Southern South

BASINGSTOKE TOWN

DLWDDL1–1 · 3–4 · 2–1 · 1–1 · 1–1 · 1–2

MALVERN TOWN

LLLLWL0–3 · 2–4 · 1–2 · 0–5 · 5–2 · 1–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Poole Town	10	+5	21
2	Plymouth Parkway	9	+15	20
3	Uxbridge	9	+11	20
4	Hanworth Villa	9	+9	19
5	Bath City	9	+5	17
6	Frome Town	10	+4	15
7	Chertsey Town	9	+5	14
8	Taunton Town	9	+1	13
9	Chichester City	9	−2	13
10	Evesham United	9	−3	13
11	Berkhamsted	10	−3	13
12	Wimborne Town	8	+6	12
13	Gosport Borough	10	0	12
14	Yate Town	9	−5	12
15	Bracknell Town	9	−7	11
16	Sholing	8	−3	10
17	Basingstoke Town	9	−2	9
18	Hanwell Town	8	−3	7
19	Gloucester City	9	−5	7
20	Chippenham Town	8	−9	7
21	Havant & Wville	9	−7	5
22	Malvern Town	9	−12	5