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Worcester City v Stourbridge

Worcester City

1–3Full time

Stourbridge

Non League Premier - Southern Central · TUE 13 OCT

Full timeGraded 13 Oct 22:30

Worcester City 1–3 Stourbridge WORCESTER CITY WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Worcester City win~~47%

~~The market said~~32%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.825

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.540

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay11 notes · 16 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Worcester City win at 47%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Worcester City 47% before kick-off, 47% now. 0–0 · 47–27–27
1′KICK-OFF Worcester City v Stourbridge
9′A goal for Stourbridge on 8′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 21–24–55
9′⚽ GOAL · 8' Worcester City 0–1 Stourbridge
9′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 9' Worcester City win: 47% at kick-off, 21% now
9′THE CALL SWINGS · 9' Stourbridge win is now our likeliest result at 55% (was Worcester City win 21%)
11′We said Worcester City at 47%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 20%. 0–1 · 20–25–55
15′We said Worcester City at 47%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 19%. 0–1 · 19–25–56
22′⚽ GOAL · 22' Worcester City 0–2 Stourbridge
23′22′ and it is 0–2: Stourbridge have scored. 0–2 · 5–12–83
23′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 23' Worcester City win: 47% at kick-off, 5% now
24′We said Worcester City at 47%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 5%. 0–2 · 5–12–83
30′We said Worcester City at 47%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 4%. 0–2 · 4–11–85
45′HALF-TIME Worcester City 0–2 Stourbridge
46′SECOND HALF Worcester City 0–2 Stourbridge
52′⚽ GOAL · 52' Worcester City 1–2 Stourbridge
53′Worcester City find the net on 52′. 1–2. 1–2 · 9–24–67
53′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 53' Worcester City win: 47% at kick-off, 9% now
54′3 goals already, more than the 2.5 we expected for the whole match. 1–2 · 8–24–68
54′⚽ GOAL · 8' Worcester City 1–2 Stourbridge · Z. Willis
54′⚽ GOAL · 22' Worcester City 1–2 Stourbridge · D. Jarvis
54′⚽ GOAL · 52' Worcester City 1–2 Stourbridge · N. Hayward
57′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 57' Worcester City win: 47% at kick-off, 7% now
68′⚽ GOAL · 68' Worcester City 1–3 Stourbridge
87′D. Jarvis scores for Stourbridge on 67′ — 1–3. 1–3 · 0–0–100
89′That is 4, and we only asked for 2.5 across ninety minutes. 1–3 · 0–0–100
FTFULL TIME Worcester City 1–3 Stourbridge
FTWorcester City 1–3 Stourbridge · Worcester City win: wrong · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Our analyst’s one-line verdict on how this match goes.

What decides it

The reason that decides itThe fact behind it, in one line.

– –

Where the chances come fromThe figure that shows it, in one line.

– –

What could tip the balanceWhat could change it, in one line.

– –

The AI’s read on this match

The verdict, the three reasons that decide it, what would change it and the players to watch — checked live during the game, with a review after full time. Included with a pass.

See the passes

Pre-match prediction

Published 13 Oct 19:33 · locked at kick-off

Worcester City win47%

Draw27%

Stourbridge win27%

Kick-offTUE 13 OCT · 19:45

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Worcester City

Stourbridge

3Days since last match3

2Matches in previous 14 days3

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
12	Stourbridge	10	−2	13
19	Worcester City	10	−6	7

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · worcester city winFirst published 9 Oct 06:15 · updated 13 Oct 19:33 · locked at kick-off

47% The market32%

Us47%

~~Market~~32%

We make Worcester City a 47% chance to win. The market has them at 32%. We are 14 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.4–1.0.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · worcester city win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 32% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Worcester City win	47%	32%	+14
Draw	27%	28%	−1
Stourbridge win	27%	40%	−13
Over 2.5 goals	45%	49%	−4
Both teams to score	49%	54%	−5
Over 1.5 goals	71%	71%	−1
Over 3.5 goals	24%	29%	−5
Worcester City or draw	73%	60%	+13
Worcester City clean sheet	36%	–	–
Stourbridge clean sheet	24%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.4%

0123450 8.9 8.5 4.5 1 12.0 12.4 6.3 2.2 2 8.8 8.8 4.5 3 4.3 4.3 2.2 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Worcester City down, Stourbridge across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,947 Non League Premier - Southern Central matches up to 13 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Non League Premier - Southern Central matches have gone over 2.5 in 54.1% of games this season, across 111 played.

Head to head

2 previous meetings, 4.50 goals a meeting; 2 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Worcester City at home: 1.67 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). Stourbridge away: 1.50 scored, 1.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.45 goals for Worcester City, 1.03 for Stourbridge. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2025

~~Goals a meeting~~4.50

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 2

~~Both scored~~2 of 2

~~Last meetings~~WOR 3–2 STO · STO 2–2 WOR

Form · last six in Non League Premier - Southern Central

WORCESTER CITY

DLLDDL1–1 · 0–1 · 0–2 · 0–0 · 2–2 · 0–1

STOURBRIDGE

LDLDLW0–2 · 1–1 · 1–4 · 0–0 · 0–1 · 2–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Real Bedford	10	+19	28
2	Bury Town	10	+11	27
3	Bromsgrove Sporting	10	+9	23
4	Rushall Olympic	11	+5	21
5	Alvechurch	10	+12	20
6	Kettering Town	10	+10	19
7	Peterborough Sports	11	+5	19
8	Anstey Nomads	10	+3	16
9	Needham Market	10	+2	14
10	Redditch United	10	+1	13
11	Halesowen Town	8	0	13
12	Stourbridge	10	−2	13
13	Leiston	10	0	12
14	Racing Club Warwick	11	−3	11
15	Bishop's Stortford	10	−5	10
16	Leamington	10	−3	9
17	Banbury United	10	−6	9
18	Stratford Town	10	−8	9
19	Worcester City	10	−6	7
20	Hitchin Town	11	−10	7
21	Leighton Town	10	−9	5
22	Stamford	10	−25	0