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Stratford Town v Peterborough Sports

Stratford Town

1–1Full time

Peterborough Sports

Non League Premier - Southern Central · SAT 17 OCT

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 18:10

Stratford Town 1–1 Peterborough Sports STRATFORD TOWN WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · RIGHT

~~We said Stratford Town win~~38%

~~The market said~~35%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.855

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.821

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay12 notes · 14 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Stratford Town win at 38%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Stratford Town 38% before kick-off, 38% now. 0–0 · 38–25–37
1′KICK-OFF Stratford Town v Peterborough Sports
6′Little has changed for our model: Stratford Town 38% before kick-off, 38% now. 0–0 · 38–25–37
18′Peterborough Sports score on 18′ to make it 0–1. 0–1 · 16–21–63
18′We said Stratford Town at 38%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 16%. 0–1 · 16–21–63
18′⚽ GOAL · 18' Stratford Town 0–1 Peterborough Sports
18′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 18' Stratford Town win: 38% at kick-off, 16% now
18′THE CALL SWINGS · 18' Peterborough Sports win is now our likeliest result at 63% (was Stratford Town win 16%)
26′We said Stratford Town at 38%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 14%. 0–1 · 14–21–64
30′The goal count is tracking the 3.0 we expected. 0–1 · 14–21–65
39′Stratford Town find the net on 38′. 1–1. 1–1 · 33–34–33
39′⚽ GOAL · 38' Stratford Town 1–1 Peterborough Sports
39′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 39' Stratford Town win: 38% at kick-off, 33% now
45′THE CALL SWINGS · 45' Draw is now our likeliest result at 37% (was Peterborough Sports win 31%)
45′HALF-TIME Stratford Town 1–1 Peterborough Sports
46′SECOND HALF Stratford Town 1–1 Peterborough Sports
57′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 57' Stratford Town win: 38% at kick-off, 28% now
62′We said Stratford Town at 38%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 26%. 1–1 · 26–48–26
66′We said Stratford Town at 38%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 24%. 1–1 · 24–52–24
75′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 75' Stratford Town win: 38% at kick-off, 18% now
84′We said Stratford Town at 38%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 9%. 1–1 · 9–83–9
85′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 85' Stratford Town win: 38% at kick-off, 8% now
90′Peterborough Sports are down to ten from 90′. Our number never saw that coming — nothing here adjusts for it. 1–1 · 5–91–5
90′🟥 RED CARD · 90' Peterborough Sports
91′We said Stratford Town at 38%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 4%. 1–1 · 4–92–4
FTFULL TIME Stratford Town 1–1 Peterborough Sports
FTStratford Town 1–1 Peterborough Sports · Stratford Town win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: right

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with Stratford Town just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: Stratford Town 38%, draw 25%, Peterborough Sports 37%. Over 2.5 goals 57%, both teams to score 60%.

The AI’s read on Stratford Town v Peterborough SportsBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Stratford Town win38%

Draw25%

Peterborough Sports win37%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 15:00

RoundMatchday 14

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Stratford Town

Peterborough Sports

4Days since last match4

Last match: 13 Oct · Non League Premier - Southern Central

2Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
4	Peterborough Sports	12	+7	22
17	Stratford Town	11	−8	10

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · stratford town winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · updated 14 Oct 04:39 · locked at kick-off

38% The market35%

Us38%

~~Market~~35%

We make Stratford Town a 38% chance to win. The market has them at 35%. We are 3 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.5–1.5.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Stratford Town v Peterborough Sports~~1.52 – 1.49

~~Form · last six in Non League Premier - Southern Central this season · since 31 Aug~~W2 D2 L2 · W5 D1 L0

~~Table places · points 10 v 22~~17 v 4

~~The market · Stratford Town win~~35% · ours 38%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Stratford Town win The market, margin stripped

Published at 40%, 38% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 35% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Stratford Town win	38%	35%	+3
Draw	25%	26%	−1
Peterborough Sports win	37%	39%	−2
Over 2.5 goals	57%	56%	+1
Both teams to score	60%	60%	0
Over 1.5 goals	80%	78%	+2
Over 3.5 goals	35%	34%	+1
Stratford Town or draw	63%	61%	+2
Stratford Town clean sheet	23%	–	–
Peterborough Sports clean sheet	23%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 4 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.2%

0123450 5.4 7.3 5.5 2.8 1 7.4 11.2 8.1 4.1 2 5.7 8.2 6.1 3.0 3 2.9 4.2 3.1 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Stratford Town down, Peterborough Sports across0–5 goals a side shown (98.9% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,955 Non League Premier - Southern Central matches up to 13 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Non League Premier - Southern Central matches have gone over 2.5 in 55.5% of games this season, across 119 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2022/23.

Home and away form

Stratford Town at home: 1.17 scored, 1.67 conceded a game (last 6). Peterborough Sports away: 1.83 scored, 1.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.52 goals for Stratford Town, 1.49 for Peterborough Sports. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2022/23

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2022/23.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Non League Premier - Southern Central this season · since 31 Aug

STRATFORD TOWN

DLLWWD0–0 · 0–1 · 2–3 · 3–2 · 2–1 · 0–0

PETERBOROUGH SPORTS

WWDWWW4–2 · 2–0 · 2–2 · 4–2 · 1–0 · 4–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Real Bedford	10	+19	28
2	Bury Town	11	+6	27
3	Bromsgrove Sporting	11	+10	26
4	Peterborough Sports	12	+7	22
5	Alvechurch	11	+12	21
6	Rushall Olympic	12	+4	21
7	Kettering Town	11	+9	19
8	Anstey Nomads	11	+4	19
9	Needham Market	11	+7	17
10	Stourbridge	11	0	16
11	Redditch United	11	+1	14
12	Halesowen Town	9	0	14
13	Leiston	10	0	12
14	Racing Club Warwick	11	−3	11
15	Leamington	11	−3	10
16	Bishop's Stortford	10	−5	10
17	Stratford Town	11	−8	10
18	Banbury United	11	−8	9
19	Worcester City	11	−8	7
20	Hitchin Town	11	−10	7
21	Leighton Town	10	−9	5
22	Stamford	11	−25	1