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Stratford Town v Leamington

Stratford Town

2–1Full time

Leamington

Non League Premier - Southern Central · SAT 10 OCT

Full timeGraded 12 Oct 19:45

Stratford Town 2–1 Leamington STRATFORD TOWN WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Stratford Town win~~39%

~~The market said~~38%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.564

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.574

Corrected on 12 Oct: this match was first graded on a score of 2–0; the score is now 2–1 and the grades above follow it.

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay1 note · 6 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Stratford Town win at 39%.
2′KICK-OFF Stratford Town v Leamington
5′Much as we predicted: Stratford Town was 39% before kick-off and our model makes it 38% now. 0–0 · 38–27–35
45′HALF-TIME Stratford Town 0–0 Leamington
45′⚽ GOAL · 45' Stratford Town 1–0 Leamington · R. Flanagan
46′SECOND HALF Stratford Town 1–0 Leamington
64′⚽ GOAL · 63' Stratford Town 2–0 Leamington
FTFULL TIME Stratford Town 2–0 Leamington
FTStratford Town 2–1 Leamington · Stratford Town win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Stratford Town win39%

Draw26%

Leamington win35%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 15:00

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · stratford town winPublished 10 Oct 15:19

39% The market38%

Us39%

~~Market~~38%

We make Stratford Town a 39% chance to win. The market has them at 38%. We are within 1 point of the market. The model expects 1.4–1.3.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · stratford town win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 34% to 38% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Stratford Town win	39%	38%	+1
Draw	26%	27%	−1
Leamington win	35%	35%	0
Over 2.5 goals	49%	55%	−6
Both teams to score	53%	59%	−6
Over 1.5 goals	74%	76%	−2
Over 3.5 goals	28%	35%	−7
Stratford Town or draw	65%	65%	0
Stratford Town clean sheet	28%	–	–
Leamington clean sheet	26%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 8 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.1%

0123450 7.5 8.9 5.8 2.6 1 9.5 12.1 7.6 3.4 2 6.6 8.2 5.2 2.3 3 3.1 3.8 2.4 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Stratford Town down, Leamington across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,936 Non League Premier - Southern Central matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Non League Premier - Southern Central matches have gone over 2.5 in 56.0% of games this season, across 100 played.

Head to head

2 previous meetings, 3.00 goals a meeting; 1 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Stratford Town at home: 1.00 scored, 1.83 conceded a game (last 6). Leamington away: 1.17 scored, 2.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.38 goals for Stratford Town, 1.29 for Leamington. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2023

~~Goals a meeting~~3.00

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 2

~~Both scored~~2 of 2

~~Last meetings~~STR 2–2 LEA · LEA 1–1 STR

Form · last six in Non League Premier - Southern Central

STRATFORD TOWN

LLDLLW1–6 · 1–2 · 0–0 · 0–1 · 2–3 · 3–2

LEAMINGTON

LDWLDW0–3 · 1–1 · 2–0 · 1–3 · 1–1 · 4–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Real Bedford	9	+19	27
2	Bury Town	9	+10	24
3	Bromsgrove Sporting	9	+9	22
4	Alvechurch	9	+13	20
5	Kettering Town	9	+10	18
6	Rushall Olympic	10	+4	18
7	Peterborough Sports	10	+4	16
8	Anstey Nomads	9	+3	15
9	Needham Market	9	+2	13
10	Halesowen Town	7	0	12
11	Leiston	9	0	11
12	Redditch United	9	−1	10
13	Racing Club Warwick	10	−3	10
14	Bishop's Stortford	9	−3	10
15	Stourbridge	9	−3	10
16	Leamington	9	−2	9
17	Worcester City	9	−5	7
18	Hitchin Town	10	−9	7
19	Banbury United	9	−7	6
20	Stratford Town	9	−9	6
21	Leighton Town	9	−8	5
22	Stamford	9	−24	0