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Model 1.2

Home › Football › Non League Premier - Southern Central › Stratford Town v Alvechurch

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Stratford Town v Alvechurch

Stratford Town
4–4Full time
Alvechurch

Non League Premier - Southern Central · SAT 24 OCT

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 18:08
Stratford Town 4–4 Alvechurch STRATFORD TOWN WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Stratford Town win38%
The market said33%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.772
The market’s Brier score0.766

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay27 notes · 28 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Stratford Town win at 38%.
  2. 2′Much as we predicted: Stratford Town was 38% before kick-off and our model makes it 38% now. 0–0 · 38–29–33
  3. 2′KICK-OFF Stratford Town v Alvechurch
  4. 3′Alvechurch score on 2′ to make it 0–1. 0–1 · 16–21–62
  5. 3′We said Stratford Town at 38%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 16%. 0–1 · 16–21–62
  6. 3′⚽ GOAL · 2' Stratford Town 0–1 Alvechurch
  7. 3′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 3' Stratford Town win: 38% at kick-off, 16% now
  8. 3′THE CALL SWINGS · 3' Alvechurch win is now our likeliest result at 62% (was Stratford Town win 38%)
  9. 14′We said Stratford Town at 38%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 14%. 0–1 · 14–22–64
  10. 19′Stratford Town find the net on 19′. 1–1. 1–1 · 36–32–32
  11. 19′⚽ GOAL · 19' Stratford Town 1–1 Alvechurch
  12. 19′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 19' Stratford Town win: 38% at kick-off, 36% now
  13. 25′A goal for Stratford Town on 25′ — 2–1. 2–1 · 69–21–10
  14. 25′We published Stratford Town at 38%. Our model now makes it 69%. 2–1 · 69–21–10
  15. 25′⚽ GOAL · 25' Stratford Town 2–1 Alvechurch
  16. 25′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 25' Stratford Town win: 38% at kick-off, 69% now
  17. 25′THE CALL SWINGS · 25' Stratford Town win is now our likeliest result at 69% (was Alvechurch win 64%)
  18. 28′P. McCone scores for Stratford Town on 24′ — 2–1. 2–1 · 69–21–10
  19. 29′We published Stratford Town at 38%. Our model now makes it 70%. 2–1 · 70–21–10
  20. 30′That is 3, and we only asked for 2.4 across ninety minutes. 2–1 · 70–21–10
  21. 35′Alvechurch score on 35′ to make it 2–2. 2–2 · 33–38–29
  22. 35′4 goals already, more than the 2.4 we expected for the whole match. 2–2 · 33–38–29
  23. 35′⚽ GOAL · 35' Stratford Town 2–2 Alvechurch
  24. 35′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 35' Stratford Town win: 38% at kick-off, 33% now
  25. 35′THE CALL SWINGS · 35' Draw is now our likeliest result at 38% (was Stratford Town win 70%)
  26. 36′34′: D. Newton on the scoresheet for Alvechurch, making it 2–2. 2–2 · 33–38–29
  27. 45′HALF-TIME Stratford Town 2–2 Alvechurch
  28. 46′SECOND HALF Stratford Town 2–2 Alvechurch
  29. 51′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 51' Stratford Town win: 38% at kick-off, 28% now
  30. 55′Stratford Town find the net on 54′. 3–2. 3–2 · 76–19–5
  31. 55′We published Stratford Town at 38%. Our model now makes it 76%. 3–2 · 76–19–5
  32. 55′⚽ GOAL · 54' Stratford Town 3–2 Alvechurch
  33. 55′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 55' Stratford Town win: 38% at kick-off, 76% now
  34. 55′THE CALL SWINGS · 55' Stratford Town win is now our likeliest result at 76% (was Draw 48%)
  35. 56′That is 5, and we only asked for 2.4 across ninety minutes. 3–2 · 76–19–5
  36. 58′A goal for Stratford Town on 58′ — 4–2. 4–2 · 96–4–1
  37. 58′⚽ GOAL · 58' Stratford Town 4–2 Alvechurch
  38. 58′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 58' Stratford Town win: 38% at kick-off, 96% now
  39. 59′We published Stratford Town at 38%. Our model now makes it 96%. 4–2 · 96–4–1
  40. 59′6 goals already, more than the 2.4 we expected for the whole match. 4–2 · 96–4–1
  41. 66′Alvechurch score on 65′ to make it 4–3. 4–3 · 80–17–3
  42. 66′We published Stratford Town at 38%. Our model now makes it 80%. 4–3 · 80–17–3
  43. 66′That is 7, and we only asked for 2.4 across ninety minutes. 4–3 · 80–17–3
  44. 66′⚽ GOAL · 65' Stratford Town 4–3 Alvechurch
  45. 66′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 66' Stratford Town win: 38% at kick-off, 80% now
  46. 74′We published Stratford Town at 38%. Our model now makes it 85%. 4–3 · 85–13–1
  47. 78′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 78' Stratford Town win: 38% at kick-off, 88% now
  48. 80′We published Stratford Town at 38%. Our model now makes it 90%. 4–3 · 90–10–1
  49. 92′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 90+2' Stratford Town win: 38% at kick-off, 98% now
  50. 93′Alvechurch find the net on 90′. 4–4. 4–4 · 2–96–2
  51. 93′We said Stratford Town at 38%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 2%. 4–4 · 2–96–2
  52. 93′8 goals already, more than the 2.4 we expected for the whole match. 4–4 · 2–96–2
  53. 93′⚽ GOAL · 90+2' Stratford Town 4–4 Alvechurch
  54. 93′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 90+3' Stratford Town win: 38% at kick-off, 2% now
  55. 93′THE CALL SWINGS · 90+3' Draw is now our likeliest result at 96% (was Stratford Town win 98%)
  56. FTFULL TIME Stratford Town 4–4 Alvechurch
  57. FTStratford Town 4–4 Alvechurch · Stratford Town win: wrong · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with Stratford Town just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: Stratford Town 38%, draw 28%, Alvechurch 34%. Over 2.5 goals 42%, both teams to score 48%.

The AI’s read on Stratford Town v AlvechurchBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Stratford Town win38%
Draw28%
Alvechurch win34%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 15:00

RoundMatchday 10

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Stratford Town

Alvechurch

7Days since last match4

Last match: 17 Oct · Non League Premier - Southern Central

Last match: 20 Oct · the English FA Cup

3Matches in previous 14 days4

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026/27

Positions before kick-off

#TEAMPGDPTS
8Alvechurch11+1221
16Stratford Town12−811

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · stratford town winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off
38% The market33%
Us38%
Market33%

We make Stratford Town a 38% chance to win. The market has them at 33%. We are 5 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.2–1.1.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Stratford Town v Alvechurch1.23 – 1.13
Form · last six in Non League Premier - Southern Central this season · since 31 AugW2 D2 L2 · W2 D3 L1
Table places · points 11 v 2116 v 8
The market · Stratford Town win33% · ours 38%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
20%25%30%35%40% 18 OCT 01:2324 OCT 14:20
Our probability · Stratford Town win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 33% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Stratford Town win38%33%+5
Draw28%29%−1
Alvechurch win34%38%−4
Over 2.5 goals42%47%−5
Both teams to score48%52%−4
Over 1.5 goals68%70%−2
Over 3.5 goals22%28%−6
Stratford Town or draw66%62%+4
Stratford Town clean sheet33%––
Alvechurch clean sheet30%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.1%
0123450 10.0 10.5 6.1 2.3 1 11.3 13.1 7.2 2.8 2 7.1 7.8 4.4 3 3.0 3.3 4 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Stratford Town down, Alvechurch across0–5 goals a side shown (99.6% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

8 meetings since 2022/23
Goals a meeting3.38
Over 2.56 of 8
Both scored6 of 8
Last meetingsSTR 2–1 ALV · ALV 1–2 STR · STR 3–1 ALV · ALV 1–2 STR

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Non League Premier - Southern Central this season · since 31 Aug

STRATFORD TOWN

LLWWDD0–1 · 2–3 · 3–2 · 2–1 · 0–0 · 1–1

ALVECHURCH

WWDDLD1–0 · 4–0 · 2–2 · 0–0 · 0–1 · 1–1

The table

2026/27
#TEAMPGDPTS
1Real Bedford12+2332
2Bury Town13+831
3Bromsgrove Sporting12+1027
4Rushall Olympic14+927
5Needham Market13+923
6Peterborough Sports13+723
7Kettering Town12+1322
8Alvechurch11+1221
9Anstey Nomads11+419
10Racing Club Warwick13+317
11Halesowen Town11−317
12Stourbridge12−216
13Redditch United11+114
14Banbury United13−713
15Leiston11−412
16Stratford Town12−811
17Leamington13−610
18Bishop's Stortford12−810
19Hitchin Town13−810
20Worcester City11−87
21Leighton Town12−135
22Stamford13−321

The competition's standings before kick-off.