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Stourbridge v Leighton Town

Stourbridge

2–1Full time

Leighton Town

Non League Premier - Southern Central · SAT 10 OCT

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 17:33

Stourbridge 2–1 Leighton Town STOURBRIDGE WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Stourbridge win~~47%

~~The market said~~49%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.426

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.384

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay2 notes · 8 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Stourbridge win at 47%.
2′KICK-OFF Stourbridge v Leighton Town
5′Little has changed for our model: Stourbridge 47% before kick-off, 46% now. 0–0 · 46–24–29
26′A goal for Stourbridge on 28′ — 0–0. 0–0 · 43–29–28
29′⚽ GOAL · 28' Stourbridge 1–0 Leighton Town
45′HALF-TIME Stourbridge 1–0 Leighton Town
46′SECOND HALF Stourbridge 1–0 Leighton Town
50′⚽ GOAL · 50' Stourbridge 1–1 Leighton Town
54′⚽ GOAL · 51' Stourbridge 1–1 Leighton Town · T. Winters
73′⚽ GOAL · 73' Stourbridge 2–1 Leighton Town
FTFULL TIME Stourbridge 2–1 Leighton Town
FTStourbridge 2–1 Leighton Town · Stourbridge win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Stourbridge win47%

Draw24%

Leighton Town win29%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 15:00

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · stourbridge winPublished 10 Oct 15:19

47% The market49%

Us47%

~~Market~~49%

We make Stourbridge a 47% chance to win. The market has them at 49%. We are 3 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.7–1.3.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · stourbridge win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 53% to 49% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Stourbridge win	47%	49%	−3
Draw	24%	25%	−2
Leighton Town win	29%	25%	+4
Over 2.5 goals	58%	54%	+4
Both teams to score	59%	57%	+3
Over 1.5 goals	80%	76%	+5
Over 3.5 goals	36%	33%	+3
Stourbridge or draw	71%	75%	−4
Stourbridge clean sheet	27%	–	–
Leighton Town clean sheet	18%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 8 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.8%

0123450 5.2 6.3 4.2 1 8.2 10.8 7.0 3.1 2 7.1 9.0 5.9 2.6 3 4.1 5.2 3.4 4 2.3 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Stourbridge down, Leighton Town across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,936 Non League Premier - Southern Central matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Non League Premier - Southern Central matches have gone over 2.5 in 56.0% of games this season, across 100 played.

Head to head

No previous meeting in our records, so this step adds nothing.

Home and away form

Stourbridge at home: 1.00 scored, 1.50 conceded a game (last 6). Leighton Town away: 1.00 scored, 2.20 conceded (last 5).

What the model expects

1.72 goals for Stourbridge, 1.32 for Leighton Town. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

0 meetings since 2022

No previous meeting of these two in our records. We say so rather than invent one.

Form · last six in Non League Premier - Southern Central

STOURBRIDGE

DLDLDL1–1 · 0–2 · 1–1 · 1–4 · 0–0 · 0–1

LEIGHTON TOWN

LLLLLL0–2 · 2–3 · 2–3 · 2–4 · 0–1 · 2–4

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Real Bedford	9	+19	27
2	Bury Town	9	+10	24
3	Bromsgrove Sporting	9	+9	22
4	Alvechurch	9	+13	20
5	Kettering Town	9	+10	18
6	Rushall Olympic	10	+4	18
7	Peterborough Sports	10	+4	16
8	Anstey Nomads	9	+3	15
9	Needham Market	9	+2	13
10	Halesowen Town	7	0	12
11	Leiston	9	0	11
12	Redditch United	9	−1	10
13	Racing Club Warwick	10	−3	10
14	Bishop's Stortford	9	−3	10
15	Stourbridge	9	−3	10
16	Leamington	9	−2	9
17	Worcester City	9	−5	7
18	Hitchin Town	10	−9	7
19	Banbury United	9	−7	6
20	Stratford Town	9	−9	6
21	Leighton Town	9	−8	5
22	Stamford	9	−24	0