Stourbridge v Anstey Nomads prediction · Non League Premier

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · postponed

Close to call, with Stourbridge just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: Stourbridge 38%, draw 25%, Anstey Nomads 37%. Over 2.5 goals 57%, both teams to score 60%.

The AI’s read on Stourbridge v Anstey NomadsBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 14 Oct 04:28 · postponed, not graded

Stourbridge win38%

Draw25%

Anstey Nomads win37%

Kick-offTUE 20 OCT · 19:45

RoundMatchday 14

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Stourbridge

Anstey Nomads

3Days since last match3

Last match: 17 Oct · Non League Premier - Southern Central

Last match: 17 Oct · the English FA Cup

3Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
9	Anstey Nomads	11	+4	19
11	Stourbridge	12	−2	16

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · stourbridge winFirst published 14 Oct 04:28 · updated 18 Oct 00:17 · postponed, not graded

38% The market34%

Us38%

~~Market~~34%

We make Stourbridge a 38% chance to win. The market has them at 34%. We are 4 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.5–1.5.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Stourbridge v Anstey Nomads~~1.51 – 1.49

~~Form · last six in Non League Premier - Southern Central this season · since 31 Aug~~W2 D1 L3 · W3 D2 L1

~~Table places · points 16 v 19~~11 v 9

~~The market · Stourbridge win~~34% · ours 38%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Stourbridge win The market, margin stripped

Published at 39%, 38% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 34% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Stourbridge win	38%	34%	+4
Draw	25%	26%	−1
Anstey Nomads win	37%	41%	−4
Over 2.5 goals	57%	55%	+2
Both teams to score	60%	59%	+1
Over 1.5 goals	80%	77%	+3
Over 3.5 goals	35%	33%	+2
Stourbridge or draw	63%	59%	+4
Stourbridge clean sheet	23%	–	–
Anstey Nomads clean sheet	23%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 3 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.3%

0123450 5.6 7.3 5.6 2.8 1 7.4 11.3 8.1 4.1 2 5.7 8.2 6.0 3.0 3 2.9 4.2 3.1 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Stourbridge down, Anstey Nomads across0–5 goals a side shown (98.9% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,963 Non League Premier - Southern Central matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Non League Premier - Southern Central matches have gone over 2.5 in 55.9% of games this season, across 127 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 1 previous meeting since 2023/24 in every competition we cover, 5.00 goals a meeting; 1 of 1 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Stourbridge at home: 1.17 scored, 1.67 conceded a game (last 6). Anstey Nomads away: 1.50 scored, 1.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.51 goals for Stourbridge, 1.49 for Anstey Nomads. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

1 meeting since 2023/24

~~Goals a meeting~~5.00

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 1

~~Both scored~~1 of 1

~~Last meetings~~ANS 3–2 STO

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Non League Premier - Southern Central this season · since 31 Aug

STOURBRIDGE

LDLWWL1–4 · 0–0 · 0–1 · 2–1 · 3–1 · 0–2

ANSTEY NOMADS

WWDLDW3–0 · 3–2 · 2–2 · 1–4 · 1–1 · 3–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Real Bedford	11	+23	31
2	Bury Town	12	+8	30
3	Bromsgrove Sporting	12	+10	27
4	Rushall Olympic	13	+7	24
5	Peterborough Sports	13	+7	23
6	Alvechurch	11	+12	21
7	Needham Market	12	+8	20
8	Kettering Town	11	+9	19
9	Anstey Nomads	11	+4	19
10	Halesowen Town	10	+1	17
11	Stourbridge	12	−2	16
12	Redditch United	11	+1	14
13	Racing Club Warwick	12	−1	14
14	Leiston	10	0	12
15	Stratford Town	12	−8	11
16	Leamington	12	−4	10
17	Bishop's Stortford	11	−7	10
18	Banbury United	12	−8	10
19	Worcester City	11	−8	7
20	Hitchin Town	12	−11	7
21	Leighton Town	11	−12	5
22	Stamford	12	−29	1