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Model 1.1

Home › Football › Non League Premier - Southern Central › Stamford v Stratford Town

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Stamford v Stratford Town

Stamford
0–0Full time
Stratford Town

Non League Premier - Southern Central · TUE 13 OCT

Full timeGraded 13 Oct 22:30
Stamford 0–0 Stratford Town STRATFORD TOWN WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Stratford Town win46%
The market said52%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.848
The market’s Brier score0.898

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay6 notes · 9 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Stratford Town win at 46%.
  2. 1′KICK-OFF Stamford v Stratford Town
  3. 2′Much as we predicted: Stratford Town was 46% before kick-off and our model makes it 46% now. 0–0 · 28–26–46
  4. 45′HALF-TIME Stamford 0–0 Stratford Town
  5. 46′SECOND HALF Stamford 0–0 Stratford Town
  6. 46′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 46' Stratford Town win: 46% at kick-off, 36% now
  7. 48′THE CALL SWINGS · 48' Draw is now our likeliest result at 41% (was Stratford Town win 36%)
  8. 52′We said Stratford Town at 46%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 34%. 0–0 · 23–43–34
  9. 76′We said Stratford Town at 46%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 18%. 0–0 · 13–69–18
  10. 77′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 77' Stratford Town win: 46% at kick-off, 18% now
  11. 78′We expected about 2.7 goals. There have been none, and the clock is running down. 0–0 · 12–72–16
  12. 78′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 78' Stratford Town win: 46% at kick-off, 16% now
  13. 81′We said Stratford Town at 46%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 13%. 0–0 · 9–78–13
  14. 85′We said Stratford Town at 46%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 8%. 0–0 · 6–85–8
  15. 89′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 89' Stratford Town win: 46% at kick-off, 6% now
  16. FTFULL TIME Stamford 0–0 Stratford Town
  17. FTStamford 0–0 Stratford Town · Stratford Town win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Our analyst’s one-line verdict on how this match goes.

What decides it

1

The reason that decides itThe fact behind it, in one line.

– –
2

Where the chances come fromThe figure that shows it, in one line.

– –
3

What could tip the balanceWhat could change it, in one line.

– –
The AI’s read on this match

The verdict, the three reasons that decide it, what would change it and the players to watch — checked live during the game, with a review after full time. Included with a pass.

See the passes

Pre-match prediction

Published 13 Oct 19:33 · locked at kick-off

Stamford win28%
Draw26%
Stratford Town win46%

Kick-offTUE 13 OCT · 19:45

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Stamford

Stratford Town

3Days since last match3
2Matches in previous 14 days2

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#TEAMPGDPTS
18Stratford Town10−89
22Stamford10−250

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · stratford town winFirst published 9 Oct 06:15 · updated 13 Oct 19:33 · locked at kick-off
46% The market53%
Us46%
Market53%

We make Stratford Town a 46% chance to win. The market has them at 53%. We are 7 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.1–1.5.

How the number movedSince we published
40%45%50%55% 9 OCT 06:1813 OCT 17:09
Our probability · stratford town win The market, margin stripped

Published at 45%, 46% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 52% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Stamford win28%23%+6
Draw26%24%+1
Stratford Town win46%53%−7
Over 2.5 goals50%54%−4
Both teams to score53%55%−3
Over 1.5 goals75%76%−1
Over 3.5 goals28%34%−5
Stamford or draw54%47%+7
Stamford clean sheet22%––
Stratford Town clean sheet32%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.0%
0123450 7.3 10.4 8.1 4.2 1 7.8 12.0 8.9 4.6 2 4.5 6.7 5.1 2.6 3 2.6 4 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Stamford down, Stratford Town across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

6 meetings since 2023
Goals a meeting3.67
Over 2.54 of 6
Both scored5 of 6
Last meetingsSTR 4–2 STA · STA 1–2 STR · STR 1–1 STA · STA 0–2 STR

Form · last six in Non League Premier - Southern Central

STAMFORD

LLLLLL0–3 · 0–5 · 0–4 · 0–3 · 0–4 · 2–3

STRATFORD TOWN

LDLLWW1–2 · 0–0 · 0–1 · 2–3 · 3–2 · 2–1

The table

2026/27
#TEAMPGDPTS
1Real Bedford10+1928
2Bury Town10+1127
3Bromsgrove Sporting10+923
4Rushall Olympic11+521
5Alvechurch10+1220
6Kettering Town10+1019
7Peterborough Sports11+519
8Anstey Nomads10+316
9Needham Market10+214
10Redditch United10+113
11Halesowen Town8013
12Stourbridge10−213
13Leiston10012
14Racing Club Warwick11−311
15Bishop's Stortford10−510
16Leamington10−39
17Banbury United10−69
18Stratford Town10−89
19Worcester City10−67
20Hitchin Town11−107
21Leighton Town10−95
22Stamford10−250

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.