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Stamford v Real Bedford

Stamford

0–4Full time

Real Bedford

Non League Premier - Southern Central · SAT 17 OCT

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 18:10

Stamford 0–4 Real Bedford REAL BEDFORD WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG0–2 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Real Bedford win~~67%

~~The market said~~72%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.160

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.121

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay12 notes · 11 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Real Bedford win at 67%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Real Bedford 67% before kick-off, 67% now. 0–0 · 14–18–67
1′KICK-OFF Stamford v Real Bedford
6′Little has changed for our model: Real Bedford 67% before kick-off, 66% now. 0–0 · 15–19–66
14′Real Bedford score on 14′ to make it 0–1. 0–1 · 5–10–85
14′⚽ GOAL · 14' Stamford 0–1 Real Bedford
14′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 14' Real Bedford win: 67% at kick-off, 85% now
15′We said Real Bedford at 67% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 85%. 0–1 · 5–10–85
16′Real Bedford score on 16′ to make it 0–1. 0–1 · 5–10–85
23′⚽ GOAL · 23' Stamford 0–2 Real Bedford
23′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 23' Real Bedford win: 67% at kick-off, 96% now
24′Real Bedford ahead on 22′ through J. Ponticelli. 0–2. 0–2 · 1–3–96
24′We said Real Bedford at 67% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 96%. 0–2 · 1–3–96
42′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 42' Real Bedford win: 67% at kick-off, 97% now
43′The goal count is tracking the 3.4 we expected. 0–2 · 1–3–97
44′A goal for Real Bedford on 43′ — 0–3. 0–3 · 0–0–99
44′⚽ GOAL · 43' Stamford 0–3 Real Bedford
45′HALF-TIME Stamford 0–3 Real Bedford
46′We said Real Bedford at 67% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to over 99%. 0–3 · 0–0–100
46′SECOND HALF Stamford 0–3 Real Bedford
69′Real Bedford score on 69′ to make it 0–4. 0–4 · 0–0–100
69′⚽ GOAL · 69' Stamford 0–4 Real Bedford
70′That is 4, and we only asked for 3.4 across ninety minutes. 0–4 · 0–0–100
FTFULL TIME Stamford 0–4 Real Bedford
FTStamford 0–4 Real Bedford · Real Bedford win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 0–2 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Real Bedford are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Stamford 14%, draw 18%, Real Bedford 67%. Over 2.5 goals 64%, both teams to score 56%.

The AI’s read on Stamford v Real BedfordBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Stamford win14%

Draw18%

Real Bedford win67%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 15:00

RoundMatchday 13

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Stamford

Real Bedford

4Days since last match7

Last match: 13 Oct · Non League Premier - Southern Central

Last match: 10 Oct · Non League Premier - Southern Central

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

In the news

from the pressAll ›

Why are Shakhtar Donetsk playing home matches at Stamford Bridge? Everything we knowMirror Football · 14 Oct 18:00 · Shakhtar Donetsk, Stamford

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · real bedford winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · updated 15 Oct 04:44 · locked at kick-off

67% The market72%

Us67%

~~Market~~72%

We make Real Bedford a 67% chance to win. The market has them at 72%. We are 5 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.0–2.4.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Stamford v Real Bedford~~0.97 – 2.38

~~Form · last six in Non League Premier - Southern Central this season · since 29 Aug~~W0 D1 L5 · W5 D1 L0

~~Table places · points 1 v 28~~22 v 1

~~The market · Real Bedford win~~72% · ours 67%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Real Bedford win The market, margin stripped

Published at 68%, 67% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 72% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Stamford win	14%	11%	+3
Draw	18%	17%	+1
Real Bedford win	67%	72%	−5
Over 2.5 goals	64%	63%	+1
Both teams to score	56%	49%	+7
Over 1.5 goals	84%	82%	+2
Over 3.5 goals	43%	43%	0
Stamford or draw	33%	28%	+5
Stamford clean sheet	10%	–	–
Real Bedford clean sheet	38%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 5 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–2 at 9.7%

0123450 4.0 8.3 9.7 7.6 4.6 2.31 3.5 8.3 9.3 7.2 4.3 2.22 4.0 4.5 3.5 2.1 3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Stamford down, Real Bedford across0–5 goals a side shown (95.8% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,955 Non League Premier - Southern Central matches up to 13 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Non League Premier - Southern Central matches have gone over 2.5 in 55.5% of games this season, across 119 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 3 previous meetings since 2024/25 in every competition we cover, 3.67 goals a meeting; 3 of 3 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Stamford at home: 0.17 scored, 1.50 conceded a game (last 6). Real Bedford away: 2.67 scored, 0.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

0.97 goals for Stamford, 2.38 for Real Bedford. Most likely score 0–2.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

3 meetings since 2024/25

~~Goals a meeting~~3.67

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 3

~~Both scored~~2 of 3

~~Last meetings~~REA 3–0 STA · STA 1–3 REA · REA 3–1 STA

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Non League Premier - Southern Central this season · since 29 Aug

STAMFORD

LLLLLD0–5 · 0–4 · 0–3 · 0–4 · 2–3 · 0–0

REAL BEDFORD

WWWWWD2–0 · 3–2 · 2–1 · 4–1 · 3–2 · 1–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Real Bedford	10	+19	28
2	Bury Town	11	+6	27
3	Bromsgrove Sporting	11	+10	26
4	Peterborough Sports	12	+7	22
5	Alvechurch	11	+12	21
6	Rushall Olympic	12	+4	21
7	Kettering Town	11	+9	19
8	Anstey Nomads	11	+4	19
9	Needham Market	11	+7	17
10	Stourbridge	11	0	16
11	Redditch United	11	+1	14
12	Halesowen Town	9	0	14
13	Leiston	10	0	12
14	Racing Club Warwick	11	−3	11
15	Leamington	11	−3	10
16	Bishop's Stortford	10	−5	10
17	Stratford Town	11	−8	10
18	Banbury United	11	−8	9
19	Worcester City	11	−8	7
20	Hitchin Town	11	−10	7
21	Leighton Town	10	−9	5
22	Stamford	11	−25	1