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Redditch United v Bishop's Stortford

Redditch United

3–1Full time

Bishop's Stortford

Non League Premier - Southern Central · SAT 10 OCT

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 17:33

Redditch United 3–1 Bishop's Stortford REDDITCH UNITED WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Redditch United win~~53%

~~The market said~~49%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.338

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.386

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay2 notes · 10 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Redditch United win at 53%.
2′KICK-OFF Redditch United v Bishop's Stortford
5′Little has changed for our model: Redditch United 53% before kick-off, 52% now. 0–0 · 52–25–23
22′⚽ GOAL · 20' Redditch United 0–1 Bishop's Stortford
26′Redditch United find the net on 29′. 0–1. 0–1 · 21–26–53
26′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 26' Redditch United win: 53% at kick-off, 21% now
26′THE CALL SWINGS · 26' Bishop's Stortford win is now our likeliest result at 53% (was Redditch United win 21%)
29′⚽ GOAL · 29' Redditch United 1–1 Bishop's Stortford
45′HALF-TIME Redditch United 1–1 Bishop's Stortford
47′SECOND HALF Redditch United 1–1 Bishop's Stortford
74′⚽ GOAL · 74' Redditch United 2–1 Bishop's Stortford
77′⚽ GOAL · 77' Redditch United 3–1 Bishop's Stortford
FTFULL TIME Redditch United 3–1 Bishop's Stortford
FTRedditch United 3–1 Bishop's Stortford · Redditch United win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Redditch United win53%

Draw24%

Bishop's Stortford win23%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 15:00

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · redditch united winPublished 10 Oct 15:19

53% The market49%

Us53%

~~Market~~49%

We make Redditch United a 53% chance to win. The market has them at 49%. We are 3 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.7–1.1.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · redditch united win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 47% to 49% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Redditch United win	53%	49%	+3
Draw	24%	25%	−1
Bishop's Stortford win	23%	26%	−2
Over 2.5 goals	53%	55%	−3
Both teams to score	53%	57%	−4
Over 1.5 goals	76%	76%	0
Over 3.5 goals	31%	34%	−3
Redditch United or draw	77%	74%	+2
Redditch United clean sheet	35%	–	–
Bishop's Stortford clean sheet	18%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 8 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.2%

0123450 6.5 6.5 3.5 1 10.5 11.2 5.9 2.1 2 9.0 9.4 5.0 3 5.2 5.4 2.9 4 2.3 2.4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Redditch United down, Bishop's Stortford across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,936 Non League Premier - Southern Central matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Non League Premier - Southern Central matches have gone over 2.5 in 56.0% of games this season, across 100 played.

Head to head

4 previous meetings, 2.00 goals a meeting; 1 of 4 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Redditch United at home: 2.17 scored, 1.50 conceded a game (last 6). Bishop's Stortford away: 1.00 scored, 1.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.73 goals for Redditch United, 1.07 for Bishop's Stortford. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2024

~~Goals a meeting~~2.00

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 4

~~Both scored~~1 of 4

~~Last meetings~~RED 0–0 BIS · BIS 3–2 RED · BIS 2–0 RED · RED 1–0 BIS

Form · last six in Non League Premier - Southern Central

REDDITCH UNITED

LLWLWD1–2 · 1–3 · 3–1 · 1–2 · 2–1 · 2–2

BISHOP'S STORTFORD

LLWWWL0–3 · 0–3 · 2–0 · 3–1 · 3–0 · 1–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Real Bedford	9	+19	27
2	Bury Town	9	+10	24
3	Bromsgrove Sporting	9	+9	22
4	Alvechurch	9	+13	20
5	Kettering Town	9	+10	18
6	Rushall Olympic	10	+4	18
7	Peterborough Sports	10	+4	16
8	Anstey Nomads	9	+3	15
9	Needham Market	9	+2	13
10	Halesowen Town	7	0	12
11	Leiston	9	0	11
12	Redditch United	9	−1	10
13	Racing Club Warwick	10	−3	10
14	Bishop's Stortford	9	−3	10
15	Stourbridge	9	−3	10
16	Leamington	9	−2	9
17	Worcester City	9	−5	7
18	Hitchin Town	10	−9	7
19	Banbury United	9	−7	6
20	Stratford Town	9	−9	6
21	Leighton Town	9	−8	5
22	Stamford	9	−24	0