Real Bedford v Stourbridge prediction · Non League Premier

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Real BedfordDrawStourbridge

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 19:45

Before kick-off · Match result · Real Bedford 68%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Real Bedford are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Real Bedford 68%, draw 18%, Stourbridge 14%. Over 2.5 goals 67%, both teams to score 58%.

The AI’s read on Real Bedford v StourbridgeBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 21 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

Real Bedford win68%

Draw18%

Stourbridge win14%

Kick-offTUE 27 OCT · 19:45

RoundMatchday 15

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Real Bedford

Stourbridge

3Days since last match3

Last match: 24 Oct · Non League Premier - Southern Central

Last match: 24 Oct · the English FA Trophy

3Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · real bedford winFirst published 21 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

68% The market–

Us68%

We make Real Bedford a 68% chance to win. The model expects 2.5–1.0, and 2–1 is the single most likely score at 9%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Real Bedford v Stourbridge~~2.47 – 1.04

~~Form · last six in Non League Premier - Southern Central this season · since 22 Sept~~W3 D2 L1 · W2 D1 L3

~~Table places · points 32 v 16~~1 v 12

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Real Bedford win	68%	–	–
Draw	18%	–	–
Stourbridge win	14%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	67%	–	–
Both teams to score	58%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	86%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	46%	–	–
Real Bedford or draw	86%	–	–
Real Bedford clean sheet	36%	–	–
Stourbridge clean sheet	9%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–1 at 9.2%

0123450 3.4 3.1 1 7.4 7.9 4.0 2 9.0 9.2 4.8 3 7.3 7.4 3.9 4 4.6 4.6 2.4 5 2.4 2.4

under 2% 5% 12%+Real Bedford down, Stourbridge across0–5 goals a side shown (95.3% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,970 Non League Premier - Southern Central matches up to 20 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Non League Premier - Southern Central matches have gone over 2.5 in 57.5% of games this season, across 134 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 3 previous meetings since 2024/25 in every competition we cover, 4.00 goals a meeting; 3 of 3 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Real Bedford at home: 2.83 scored, 1.50 conceded a game (last 6). Stourbridge away: 1.17 scored, 1.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.47 goals for Real Bedford, 1.04 for Stourbridge. Most likely score 2–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

3 meetings since 2024/25

~~Goals a meeting~~4.00

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 3

~~Both scored~~3 of 3

~~Last meetings~~STO 1–4 REA · STO 2–1 REA · REA 3–1 STO

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Non League Premier - Southern Central this season · since 22 Sept

REAL BEDFORD

WWDWDL4–1 · 3–2 · 1–1 · 4–0 · 2–2 · 1–3

STOURBRIDGE

LDLWWL1–4 · 0–0 · 0–1 · 2–1 · 3–1 · 0–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Real Bedford	12	+23	32
2	Bury Town	13	+8	31
3	Bromsgrove Sporting	12	+10	27
4	Rushall Olympic	14	+9	27
5	Needham Market	13	+9	23
6	Peterborough Sports	13	+7	23
7	Kettering Town	12	+13	22
8	Alvechurch	11	+12	21
9	Anstey Nomads	11	+4	19
10	Racing Club Warwick	13	+3	17
11	Halesowen Town	11	−3	17
12	Stourbridge	12	−2	16
13	Redditch United	11	+1	14
14	Banbury United	13	−7	13
15	Leiston	11	−4	12
16	Stratford Town	12	−8	11
17	Leamington	13	−6	10
18	Bishop's Stortford	12	−8	10
19	Hitchin Town	13	−8	10
20	Worcester City	11	−8	7
21	Leighton Town	12	−13	5
22	Stamford	13	−32	1