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Real Bedford v Bromsgrove Sporting

Real Bedford

1–1Full time

Bromsgrove Sporting

Non League Premier - Southern Central · SAT 10 OCT

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 17:33

Real Bedford 1–1 Bromsgrove Sporting REAL BEDFORD WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT2–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Real Bedford win~~68%

~~The market said~~49%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~1.167

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.898

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay1 note · 6 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Real Bedford win at 68%.
2′KICK-OFF Real Bedford v Bromsgrove Sporting
5′Much as we predicted: Real Bedford was 68% before kick-off and our model makes it 67% now. 0–0 · 67–18–15
45′HALF-TIME Real Bedford 0–0 Bromsgrove Sporting
46′SECOND HALF Real Bedford 0–0 Bromsgrove Sporting
56′⚽ GOAL · 55' Real Bedford 0–1 Bromsgrove Sporting
83′⚽ GOAL · 83' Real Bedford 1–1 Bromsgrove Sporting
FTFULL TIME Real Bedford 1–1 Bromsgrove Sporting
FTReal Bedford 1–1 Bromsgrove Sporting · Real Bedford win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 2–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Real Bedford win68%

Draw17%

Bromsgrove Sporting win15%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 15:00

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · real bedford winPublished 10 Oct 15:19

68% The market49%

Us68%

~~Market~~49%

We make Real Bedford a 68% chance to win. The market has them at 49%. We are 19 points more confident than the market. The model expects 2.5–1.1.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · real bedford win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 53% to 49% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Real Bedford win	68%	49%	+19
Draw	17%	24%	−6
Bromsgrove Sporting win	15%	28%	−13
Over 2.5 goals	69%	62%	+7
Both teams to score	60%	63%	−3
Over 1.5 goals	87%	81%	+6
Over 3.5 goals	49%	42%	+6
Real Bedford or draw	85%	72%	+13
Real Bedford clean sheet	34%	–	–
Bromsgrove Sporting clean sheet	9%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 8 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–1 at 9.1%

0123450 3.0 3.0 1 6.9 7.5 4.0 2 8.5 9.1 4.9 3 7.1 7.5 4.1 4 4.5 4.8 2.6 5 2.4 2.5

under 2% 5% 12%+Real Bedford down, Bromsgrove Sporting across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,936 Non League Premier - Southern Central matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Non League Premier - Southern Central matches have gone over 2.5 in 56.0% of games this season, across 100 played.

Head to head

2 previous meetings, 3.00 goals a meeting; 1 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Real Bedford at home: 3.50 scored, 1.50 conceded a game (last 6). Bromsgrove Sporting away: 2.17 scored, 0.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.53 goals for Real Bedford, 1.09 for Bromsgrove Sporting. Most likely score 2–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2026

~~Goals a meeting~~3.00

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 2

~~Both scored~~1 of 2

~~Last meetings~~BRO 1–3 REA · REA 2–0 BRO

Form · last six in Non League Premier - Southern Central

REAL BEDFORD

WWWWWW6–1 · 2–0 · 3–2 · 2–1 · 4–1 · 3–2

BROMSGROVE SPORTING

WWWWWD2–1 · 3–0 · 1–0 · 1–0 · 3–2 · 1–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Real Bedford	9	+19	27
2	Bury Town	9	+10	24
3	Bromsgrove Sporting	9	+9	22
4	Alvechurch	9	+13	20
5	Kettering Town	9	+10	18
6	Rushall Olympic	10	+4	18
7	Peterborough Sports	10	+4	16
8	Anstey Nomads	9	+3	15
9	Needham Market	9	+2	13
10	Halesowen Town	7	0	12
11	Leiston	9	0	11
12	Redditch United	9	−1	10
13	Racing Club Warwick	10	−3	10
14	Bishop's Stortford	9	−3	10
15	Stourbridge	9	−3	10
16	Leamington	9	−2	9
17	Worcester City	9	−5	7
18	Hitchin Town	10	−9	7
19	Banbury United	9	−7	6
20	Stratford Town	9	−9	6
21	Leighton Town	9	−8	5
22	Stamford	9	−24	0