Home › Football › Non League Premier - Southern Central › Racing Club Warwick v Leiston

Racing Club Warwick v Leiston

Racing Club Warwick

0–0Full time

Leiston

Non League Premier - Southern Central · SAT 10 OCT

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 17:33

Racing Club Warwick 0–0 Leiston LEISTON WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Leiston win~~38%

~~The market said~~39%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.859

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.835

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay1 note · 4 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Leiston win at 38%.
3′KICK-OFF Racing Club Warwick v Leiston
6′Little has changed for our model: Racing Club Warwick 38% before kick-off, 37% now. 0–0 · 37–25–37
45′HALF-TIME Racing Club Warwick 0–0 Leiston
46′SECOND HALF Racing Club Warwick 0–0 Leiston
FTFULL TIME Racing Club Warwick 0–0 Leiston
FTRacing Club Warwick 0–0 Leiston · Leiston win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Racing Club Warwick win38%

Draw24%

Leiston win38%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 15:00

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · leiston winPublished 10 Oct 15:19

38% The market39%

Us38%

~~Market~~39%

We make Leiston a 38% chance to win. The market has them at 39%. We are within 1 point of the market. The model expects 1.5–1.5.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · leiston win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 38% to 39% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Racing Club Warwick win	38%	35%	+2
Draw	24%	25%	−1
Leiston win	38%	39%	−1
Over 2.5 goals	57%	59%	−2
Both teams to score	60%	62%	−3
Over 1.5 goals	80%	78%	+1
Over 3.5 goals	35%	39%	−4
Racing Club Warwick or draw	62%	61%	+1
Racing Club Warwick clean sheet	23%	–	–
Leiston clean sheet	23%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 8 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.1%

0123450 5.4 7.4 5.6 2.8 1 7.4 11.1 8.1 4.1 2 5.6 8.1 6.0 3.1 3 2.8 4.1 3.1 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Racing Club Warwick down, Leiston across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,936 Non League Premier - Southern Central matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Non League Premier - Southern Central matches have gone over 2.5 in 56.0% of games this season, across 100 played.

Head to head

No previous meeting in our records, so this step adds nothing.

Home and away form

Racing Club Warwick at home: 1.20 scored, 1.40 conceded a game (last 5). Leiston away: 1.83 scored, 2.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.50 goals for Racing Club Warwick, 1.51 for Leiston. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

0 meetings since 2022

No previous meeting of these two in our records. We say so rather than invent one.

Form · last six in Non League Premier - Southern Central

RACING CLUB WARWICK

LDLLDW0–2 · 0–0 · 2–3 · 1–2 · 2–2 · 1–0

LEISTON

DWLWLL2–2 · 3–1 · 3–4 · 2–1 · 0–2 · 2–3

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Real Bedford	9	+19	27
2	Bury Town	9	+10	24
3	Bromsgrove Sporting	9	+9	22
4	Alvechurch	9	+13	20
5	Kettering Town	9	+10	18
6	Rushall Olympic	10	+4	18
7	Peterborough Sports	10	+4	16
8	Anstey Nomads	9	+3	15
9	Needham Market	9	+2	13
10	Halesowen Town	7	0	12
11	Leiston	9	0	11
12	Redditch United	9	−1	10
13	Racing Club Warwick	10	−3	10
14	Bishop's Stortford	9	−3	10
15	Stourbridge	9	−3	10
16	Leamington	9	−2	9
17	Worcester City	9	−5	7
18	Hitchin Town	10	−9	7
19	Banbury United	9	−7	6
20	Stratford Town	9	−9	6
21	Leighton Town	9	−8	5
22	Stamford	9	−24	0