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Peterborough Sports v Banbury United

Peterborough Sports

4–2Full time

Banbury United

Non League Premier - Southern Central · TUE 13 OCT

Full timeGraded 13 Oct 22:30

Peterborough Sports 4–2 Banbury United PETERBOROUGH SPORTS WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Peterborough Sports win~~52%

~~The market said~~48%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.347

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.404

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay13 notes · 18 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Peterborough Sports win at 52%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Peterborough Sports 52% before kick-off, 52% now. 0–0 · 52–24–24
1′KICK-OFF Peterborough Sports v Banbury United
5′⚽ GOAL · 5' Peterborough Sports 1–0 Banbury United
6′5′ and it is 1–0: Peterborough Sports have scored. 1–0 · 77–15–8
6′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 6' Peterborough Sports win: 52% at kick-off, 77% now
7′We said Peterborough Sports at 52% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 77%. 1–0 · 77–15–8
13′⚽ GOAL · 13' Peterborough Sports 1–1 Banbury United
14′Banbury United find the net on 13′. 1–1. 1–1 · 50–27–23
14′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 14' Peterborough Sports win: 52% at kick-off, 50% now
25′A goal for Peterborough Sports on 24′ — 2–1. 2–1 · 77–16–7
25′⚽ GOAL · 24' Peterborough Sports 2–1 Banbury United
25′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 25' Peterborough Sports win: 52% at kick-off, 77% now
31′3 goals already, more than the 2.7 we expected for the whole match. 2–1 · 77–16–6
45′HALF-TIME Peterborough Sports 2–1 Banbury United
47′SECOND HALF Peterborough Sports 2–1 Banbury United
51′We said Peterborough Sports at 52% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 80%. 2–1 · 80–16–4
58′⚽ GOAL · 5' Peterborough Sports 2–1 Banbury United · L. Lobjoit
58′⚽ GOAL · 13' Peterborough Sports 2–1 Banbury United · George AJ
58′⚽ GOAL · 24' Peterborough Sports 2–1 Banbury United · H. Williams
59′58′ and it is 3–1: Peterborough Sports have scored. 3–1 · 97–3–0
59′⚽ GOAL · 58' Peterborough Sports 3–1 Banbury United
59′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 59' Peterborough Sports win: 52% at kick-off, 97% now
60′We said Peterborough Sports at 52% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 97%. 3–1 · 97–3–0
61′That is 4, and we only asked for 2.7 across ninety minutes. 3–1 · 97–3–0
75′⚽ GOAL · 75' Peterborough Sports 3–2 Banbury United
90′Banbury United pull one back on 75′ through L. Steele. 3–2. 3–2 · 97–3–0
90′5 goals already, more than the 2.7 we expected for the whole match. 3–2 · 97–3–0
90′M. Richens scores for Peterborough Sports on 90′ — 4–2. 4–2 · 100–0–0
90′⚽ GOAL · 93' Peterborough Sports 4–2 Banbury United
90′🟥 RED CARD · 95' Peterborough Sports
FTFULL TIME Peterborough Sports 4–2 Banbury United
FTPeterborough Sports 4–2 Banbury United · Peterborough Sports win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Our analyst’s one-line verdict on how this match goes.

What decides it

The reason that decides itThe fact behind it, in one line.

– –

Where the chances come fromThe figure that shows it, in one line.

– –

What could tip the balanceWhat could change it, in one line.

– –

The AI’s read on this match

The verdict, the three reasons that decide it, what would change it and the players to watch — checked live during the game, with a review after full time. Included with a pass.

See the passes

Pre-match prediction

Published 13 Oct 19:33 · locked at kick-off

Peterborough Sports win52%

Draw24%

Banbury United win24%

Kick-offTUE 13 OCT · 19:45

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Peterborough Sports

Banbury United

3Days since last match3

3Matches in previous 14 days2

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
7	Peterborough Sports	11	+5	19
17	Banbury United	10	−6	9

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · peterborough sports winFirst published 9 Oct 06:15 · updated 13 Oct 19:33 · locked at kick-off

52% The market48%

Us52%

~~Market~~48%

We make Peterborough Sports a 52% chance to win. The market has them at 48%. We are 4 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.7–1.0.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · peterborough sports win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 48% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Peterborough Sports win	52%	48%	+4
Draw	24%	26%	−2
Banbury United win	24%	26%	−2
Over 2.5 goals	51%	53%	−2
Both teams to score	52%	56%	−4
Over 1.5 goals	75%	74%	+1
Over 3.5 goals	29%	33%	−4
Peterborough Sports or draw	76%	74%	+2
Peterborough Sports clean sheet	36%	–	–
Banbury United clean sheet	19%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.4%

0123450 7.0 6.8 3.6 1 10.8 11.4 5.9 2.1 2 9.1 9.3 4.9 3 5.2 5.3 2.8 4 2.2 2.3 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Peterborough Sports down, Banbury United across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,947 Non League Premier - Southern Central matches up to 13 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Non League Premier - Southern Central matches have gone over 2.5 in 54.1% of games this season, across 111 played.

Head to head

No previous meeting between these two, so this step adds nothing.

Home and away form

Peterborough Sports at home: 1.80 scored, 1.80 conceded a game (last 5). Banbury United away: 0.67 scored, 1.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.69 goals for Peterborough Sports, 1.05 for Banbury United. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

0 meetings since 2022

No meetings between these two in Non League Premier - Southern Central since 2022. Cup ties and meetings in other competitions are not counted here.

Form · last six in Non League Premier - Southern Central

PETERBOROUGH SPORTS

DWWDWW3–3 · 4–2 · 2–0 · 2–2 · 4–2 · 1–0

BANBURY UNITED

DLLDLW1–1 · 0–3 · 1–2 · 0–0 · 2–3 · 3–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Real Bedford	10	+19	28
2	Bury Town	10	+11	27
3	Bromsgrove Sporting	10	+9	23
4	Rushall Olympic	11	+5	21
5	Alvechurch	10	+12	20
6	Kettering Town	10	+10	19
7	Peterborough Sports	11	+5	19
8	Anstey Nomads	10	+3	16
9	Needham Market	10	+2	14
10	Redditch United	10	+1	13
11	Halesowen Town	8	0	13
12	Stourbridge	10	−2	13
13	Leiston	10	0	12
14	Racing Club Warwick	11	−3	11
15	Bishop's Stortford	10	−5	10
16	Leamington	10	−3	9
17	Banbury United	10	−6	9
18	Stratford Town	10	−8	9
19	Worcester City	10	−6	7
20	Hitchin Town	11	−10	7
21	Leighton Town	10	−9	5
22	Stamford	10	−25	0