Needham Market v Leighton Town prediction · Non League Premier

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Needham MarketDrawLeighton Town

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 19:45

Before kick-off · Match result · Needham Market 63%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Needham Market are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Needham Market 63%, draw 20%, Leighton Town 18%. Over 2.5 goals 64%, both teams to score 59%.

The AI’s read on Needham Market v Leighton TownBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 21 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

Needham Market win63%

Draw20%

Leighton Town win18%

Kick-offTUE 27 OCT · 19:45

RoundMatchday 15

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Needham Market

Leighton Town

3Days since last match7

Last match: 24 Oct · the English FA Trophy

Last match: 20 Oct · Non League Premier - Southern Central

4Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
5	Needham Market	13	+9	23
21	Leighton Town	12	−13	5

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · needham market winFirst published 21 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

63% The market–

Us63%

We make Needham Market a 63% chance to win. The model expects 2.2–1.1, and 2–1 is the single most likely score at 9%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Needham Market v Leighton Town~~2.24 – 1.09

~~Form · last six in Non League Premier - Southern Central this season · since 12 Sept~~W4 D1 L1 · W0 D0 L6

~~Table places · points 23 v 5~~5 v 21

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Needham Market win	63%	–	–
Draw	20%	–	–
Leighton Town win	18%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	64%	–	–
Both teams to score	59%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	84%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	42%	–	–
Needham Market or draw	82%	–	–
Needham Market clean sheet	34%	–	–
Leighton Town clean sheet	11%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–1 at 9.5%

0123450 4.0 3.9 2.2 1 8.0 8.9 4.8 2 8.9 9.5 5.2 3 6.6 7.0 3.8 4 3.7 4.0 2.2 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Needham Market down, Leighton Town across0–5 goals a side shown (96.8% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,970 Non League Premier - Southern Central matches up to 20 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Non League Premier - Southern Central matches have gone over 2.5 in 57.5% of games this season, across 134 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2023/24.

Home and away form

Needham Market at home: 2.00 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). Leighton Town away: 0.83 scored, 2.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.24 goals for Needham Market, 1.09 for Leighton Town. Most likely score 2–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2023/24

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2023/24.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Non League Premier - Southern Central this season · since 12 Sept

NEEDHAM MARKET

WLDWWW4–0 · 3–5 · 1–1 · 5–0 · 2–1 · 2–1

LEIGHTON TOWN

LLLLLL2–4 · 0–1 · 2–4 · 1–2 · 0–3 · 0–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Real Bedford	12	+23	32
2	Bury Town	13	+8	31
3	Bromsgrove Sporting	12	+10	27
4	Rushall Olympic	14	+9	27
5	Needham Market	13	+9	23
6	Peterborough Sports	13	+7	23
7	Kettering Town	12	+13	22
8	Alvechurch	11	+12	21
9	Anstey Nomads	11	+4	19
10	Racing Club Warwick	13	+3	17
11	Halesowen Town	11	−3	17
12	Stourbridge	12	−2	16
13	Redditch United	11	+1	14
14	Banbury United	13	−7	13
15	Leiston	11	−4	12
16	Stratford Town	12	−8	11
17	Leamington	13	−6	10
18	Bishop's Stortford	12	−8	10
19	Hitchin Town	13	−8	10
20	Worcester City	11	−8	7
21	Leighton Town	12	−13	5
22	Stamford	13	−32	1